Quick Scout: Why I’m surprised by the KU-Iowa State basketball line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Iowa State at No. 3 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/stream: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 11-14
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 71
Point spread: KU by 16.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Transition offense: Iowa State is 72nd when it comes to frequency of fast break attempts and also 75th in adjusted shooting percentage in those situations.
▪ Free throw shooting: Though the Cyclones don’t get to the line often, they’ve been great when they do get there, hitting 75% of their freebies overall and 77% in Big 12 play for the league’s best mark.
▪ Defensive pressure: This has been coach Steve Prohm’s most aggressive defensive team in his five seasons at Iowa State, as the team ranks 65th in defensive turnover percentage and 62nd in steal rate.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Transition defense: Iowa State allows lots of opponent fast break opportunities and also ranks 304th in adjusted shooting percentage defense in those scenarios.
▪ Defensive rebounding: The Cyclones are 316th in defensive board percentage while relying heavily on non-elite rebounder Michael Jacobson to clear the glass on that end.
▪ Three-point defense: Iowa State has allowed a high percentage of perimeter attempts in conference play, with Big 12 opponents making 37% of those shots.
Player to Watch
6-foot-3 guard Rasir Bolton (No. 45)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively, especially with Tyrese Haliburton out because of injury
Plus: Creates contact and gets fouled often
Plus: Excellent free throw shooter (82%)
Plus: Synergy’s logs list him as “very good” overall defender who thrives getting out to perimeter shooters
Plus: Doesn’t hesitate to shoot threes and makes enough where you have to respect him out there
Minus: Attempts way too many mid-range jumpers/runners and is below average on those shot types
Minus: Creates more for himself than others at this point
Prediction
I’m struggling to understand Vegas on this one.
KU is a 16-point sportsbook favorite even though KenPom and Torvik’s projections like the Jayhawks about a point more than that.
If anything, I thought the line might swing the other way because of the Cyclones playing without their star point guard Haliburton. The team had already started a downward trend during conference play, and Haliburton’s absence obviously doesn’t improve things.
Here are the positives for the Cyclones: Their glaring weakness (transition defense) might not be exposed as much Monday. KU’s transition offense, in truth, has been one of the team’s worst overall attributes, so Iowa State might not be punished for this ill as much as it would have been in other seasons when entering Allen Fieldhouse.
The Cyclones also don’t foul a lot, which is a good thing. They’ll also likely force the Jayhawks to make some threes, which happened Saturday but hasn’t always been KU’s most reliable form of offense.
I still like KU big here. Iowa State will be out-manned inside, and if the Jayhawks can simply get shots up, they should have a huge advantage on the boards, where the Cyclones won’t be able to match up. Not only that, KU’s big men shouldn’t have as many issues guarding the perimeter, as Jacobson will occasionally take threes, but he isn’t nearly the threat that Oklahoma’s Krisitian Doolittle was on Saturday.
The Jayhawks also should be able to turn up the pressure defensively while knowing Haliburton’s injury will put additional strain on less-experienced guards.
I see KU’s defense coming through with a bounceback performance, and the offense being good enough for both a win and cover.
Kansas 78, Iowa State 58
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
This could be a huge statistical night for Udoka Azubuike, who should be productive when he gets touches and also when he doesn’t. Iowa State doesn’t have someone his size, so there should be plenty of opportunities for passing angles and easy buckets if KU’s guards can find him. Even on missed shots, though ... Azubuike could make things miserable for the Cyclones if he goes hard after rebounds and continues a season-long trend of being strong on the offensive glass. In a high-possession game where he’s unlikely to get in foul trouble, Azubuike going for something like 20-10 seems to me like a reasonable projection.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Oklahoma 63 (Actual: KU 87-70) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 16-9
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 115-85-3
