Quick Scout: Will this recent Allen Fieldhouse trend continue when KU faces Oklahoma?
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Oklahoma at No. 3 Kansas, 11 a.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/stream: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-8
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 36
Point spread: KU by 11 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Foul avoidance: Oklahoma simply does not put opponents on the foul line, posting the third-lowest defensive free-throw rate nationally.
▪ Ball security: The Sooners get a shot almost every time down, posting the best offensive turnover percentage of any Big 12 team during league play.
▪ Interior defense: Oklahoma thrives at limiting opponents’ shots at the rim (64th nationally) and also keeping shooting percentages low in those scenarios (81st).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Offensive rebounding: This is a philosophical choice; it appears Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger often sends four men back for transition defense, which is part of the reason Oklahoma is 321st in offensive rebound percentage.
▪ Creating havoc: The Sooners play position defense while not gambling often, ranking last in Big 12 play in defensive turnover percentage.
▪ Three-point defense: Oklahoma has given up the exact same percentage of three-point shots as KU this season (41.9 percent), meaning there should be openings on the perimeter for the Jayhawks’ shooters.
Player to Watch
6-foot-7 forward Kristian Doolittle (No. 21)
Plus: Takes on largest offensive load for Oklahoma
Plus: Strong player offensively in isolation settings
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Choosy with threes but is effective shooter there (37 percent)
Plus: Has 86 percent accuracy from free-throw line this season
Minus: Above-average shooter in mid-range, but he takes a lot of his shots in that overall inefficient area
Minus: Not as good of a shooter at the rim as you’d expect
Minus: Doesn’t get to the free-throw line often
Prediction
The Vegas spread is a couple points off the projection systems, and a recent KU trend seems to be the cause.
Allen Fieldhouse, at least lately, has not given the same bump as in years past. The Jayhawks are just 1-5 against the spread at home during the 2020 calendar year while also failing to cover their last three games against Tennessee, Texas Tech and Texas.
KenPom’s numbers like KU by 14 and Torvik’s have the Jayhawks by 13.6, so bettors have to decide for themselves whether the last six weeks’ results are enough to ding KU by 2-2 1/2 points in this spot.
Though the Jayhawks have held their last two opponents under 50 ... that should be tough Saturday. Oklahoma will not be as careless offensively as West Virginia was, and while shot selection for the Sooners can be iffy at times, the fact of the matter is that simply getting up attempts is a good way to maintain a baseline level of efficiency.
KU also will have to respect Oklahoma on the perimeter. Both Doolittle and forward Brady Manek are excellent three-point shooters, and the Jayhawks have always had a bit more trouble stopping big men stepping out simply because it requires more effort around the arc from center Udoka Azubuike.
For KU, limiting unforced errors will be key. The Jayhawks should be able to stay under double-digit giveaways if they can avoid careless mistakes against a passive defense, while KU also would be well-served to hunt shots on the perimeter where Oklahoma’s defense has surrendered frequent open looks.
I think Oklahoma will shoot threes often, while making a better percentage than its first game against KU (28 percent). I still think the Jayhawks will be able to match some of those shots with threes of their own, though, making me think KU’s offense will help lead the team to both a win and cover.
Kansas 78, Oklahoma 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
I’ll double up on the West Virginia pick and say Isaiah Moss has a second straight standout performance. One of Oklahoma’s biggest defensive weaknesses is getting out to three-point shooters, and that showed through in the first matchup, as Moss scored 20 points while making 6 of 11 outside shots. KU coach Bill Self will likely reinsert Moss into the starting lineup on Saturday, and if the guard can simply play passable defense, he’ll have the opportunity for another big offensive game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 64, West Virginia 61 (Actual: KU 58-49) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 15-9
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 114-85-3
This story was originally published February 15, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
