Quick Scout: Yeah, this KU-West Virginia game should probably be on national TV
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at No. 14 West Virginia, 6 p.m. Central time, WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, West Virginia
TV/stream: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 18-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 7
Point spread: West Virginia by 1 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: West Virginia is first in Big 12 conference play in defensive turnover rate while also improving that number as the season has gone on.
▪ Offensive rebounding: A Bob Huggins staple, the Mountaineers is No. 1 nationally in offensive rebounding rate while getting back more than 40% of their missed shots.
▪ Transition defense: Though opponents have tried to run against West Virginia, that strategy hasn’t been successful; the Mountaineers have posted the nation’s third-best adjusted field goal percentage against during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: West Virginia ranks 282nd in offensive turnover rate, and that number has gotten worse in recent weeks.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Mountaineers have shot the fewest percentage of threes during Big 12 season, but even though they’ve been choosy there, they’ve still made just 29% of those tries.
▪ Transition offense: West Virginia gets out in transition about as much as an average NCAA team but ranks 329th in adjusted field goal percentage on fast breaks.
Player to Watch
6-foot-7 guard Jermaine Haley (No. 10)
Plus: Has greatly increased his efficiency and offensive role from last season
Plus: Great offensive rebounder for his size and excellent with stickbacks
Plus: Good overall finisher at the rim
Plus: Creates contact and draws fouls often
Plus: Has posted one of the team’s top steal rates
Minus: Not a three-point shooter; 4 of 16 this season and 25% for his career
Minus: Synergy’s logs list him as a “below average” overall defender who has especially struggled to defend spot-up shooters
Prediction
Maybe Senators actually should get involved to move this game from ESPN+ to cable television.
Because this is a matchup between top-10 KenPom teams — and also because it’s on West Virginia’s home floor, which gives the Mountaineers a few-point boost — this is primed to be one of the best college basketball games of the season.
Projection systems agree. KenPom’s numbers have KU at 53% to win, while Bart Torvik’s give the Jayhawks a half-point edge.
The atmosphere can’t be ignored here. KU is just 1-5 overall in its last six trips to Morgantown, and even in games where the Jayhawks have played well early, they’ve still often found ways to lose while succumbing to West Virginia’s pressuring style. Though the Mountaineers foul a lot regardless of location, playing at WVU Coliseum can only help; West Virginia ranks second nationally in KenPom’s home court advantage measure, while also averaging 5 fewer fouls per conference home game over the last 3-plus seasons — a mark that is fourth-highest in the nation.
It could be a struggle for both teams to score. KU and West Virginia rank 1-2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and both are great at limiting opponents in transition while having some struggles of their own in that area.
The Mountaineers are the rare team that relies on offensive boards and getting to the foul line for their offensive efficiency. This actually matches up with two of KU’s defensive strengths, though, and once the Jayhawks kept forward Oscar Tshiebwe away from the offensive glass in the second half of the teams’ first meeting, they allowed just 23 points after the break.
I think this is another game that KU, like the last one against TCU, can win with its defense. Add on that I actually feel better about the Jayhawks’ three-point shooting potential than their opponent — that doesn’t happen often — and the slight nod here goes to KU for the win and cover.
Kansas 64, West Virginia 61
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
West Virginia will allow some three-point attempts, and Isaiah Moss seems to be the KU player who’s most likely to fire them up when open. Though Moss has made just 10 of 31 threes in his last six contests, I could definitely see him giving the Jayhawks a boost in a game where simply getting up shots (before turning it over) will be important.
Last game prediction: Kansas 64, TCU 60 (Actual: KU 60-46) ❌
2019-20 record vs. spread: 14-9
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 113-85-3
This story was originally published February 12, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
