Quick Scout: Why Saturday’s KU-Tennessee matchup might not be easy on the eyes
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Tennessee at No. 3 Kansas, 3 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 12-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 50
Point spread: Kansas by 13 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Rim protection: Tennessee has one of the best interior defenses in the nation, ranking fourth nationally in opponent close-shot field goal percentage and 12th in block rate.
▪ Three-point defense: The Volunteers have done a great job discouraging threes, ranking 53rd in the restriction of opponents’ outside shots.
▪ Free throws: Tennessee gets to the line more than an average team, and it’s also excellent once there, making 76% of those freebies.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: Tennessee gives the ball away often, ranking 268th in offensive turnover percentage and 325th in offensive steal rate.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Volunteers take about an average number of threes, but they’ve made just 31% of them this season (291st nationally).
▪ Transition offense: Tennessee rarely runs offensively, and even when it does, the team has ranked 299th in adjusted field goal percentage in those scenarios.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward John Fulkerson (No. 10)
Plus: Tennessee’s most efficient offensive option
Plus: Outstanding finisher on close shots
Plus: Gets fouled often and is 75% free throw shooter
Plus: Excellent in transition settings
Plus: Athletic player who can create havoc defensively with blocks and steals
Minus: Reliant on others to get him his shots, as he’s not a good shot creator for himself
Minus: Does not shoot threes
Prediction
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: KU will be facing an elite half-court defense and also an offense that gives it away too often and struggles to make shots.
That description applies to roughly half the teams in the Big 12 right now, and it’s also similar to what KU has played the last two games against Texas and Kansas State.
ESPN’s College GameDay, in other words, probably shouldn’t expect offensive fireworks from either team during Saturday’s national broadcast from Allen Fieldhouse.
KenPom’s projection system has KU by 15, while Torvik’s numbers like the Jayhawks by 14. Both are not taking into account that the Jayhawks will be without suspended players David McCormack and Silvio De Sousa, though past Vegas trends would indicate humans often overrate the impact of rotation guys being out if there are other capable options available (like KU has).
I do think KU could struggle to score offensively. Tennessee’s combination of challenging shots inside and guarding the three-point line is a bit similar to Texas, which had success in the first half a week ago before struggling to contain Udoka Azubuike and the Jayhawks’ transition attack late.
There should be some openings on the offensive glass for KU, but that’s a tough ask in this one. Azubuike has plenty to worry about already as the team’s only eligible big man, and that characteristic is never going to be a strength of the four-guard lineups KU coach Bill Self will have to utilize Saturday.
I don’t have much more faith in Tennessee scoring other than this: The team doesn’t hesitate to shoot threes. The Volunteers have done a poor job making them this season, but that’s something that can be overcome in a small-sample, 40-minute stretch.
With a few outside shots, I think Tennessee can at least avoid an embarrassing offensive performance. If that happens — based on the assumption that this will be a low-tempo, grind-it-out affair — it leaves me thinking this one will be closer than the sportsbooks expect.
Kansas 66, Tennessee 58
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Tennessee
Hawk to Rock
This isn’t an amazing matchup for Devon Dotson, but it feels like he could piece together enough elements in his game for a strong offensive showing. Tennessee does a great job of getting back ... but Dotson still has the potential to beat everyone down the floor for an uncontested layup. The Volunteers also don’t foul a crazy amount ... but Dotson usually does take advantage of the 6-8 free throws he gets. Add in a three or two, and it’s likely that Dotson finishes as KU’s top scorer Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 75, K-State 56 (Actual: KU 81-60) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 12-6
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 111-82-3
This story was originally published January 25, 2020 at 8:30 AM.
