Quick Scout: The biggest worry for KU basketball against K-State
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Kansas State at No. 3 Kansas, 6 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 8-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 88
Point spread: Kansas by 15.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Creating havoc: Coach Bruce Weber’s teams typically do a great job of pressuring defensively, and this year is no different, as the Wildcats rank ninth nationally in both steal rate and defensive turnover percentage.
▪ Drawing fouls: Kansas State has done a good job of getting to the line offensively, ranking 95th in offensive free throw rate.
▪ Pick-and-roll defense: The Wildcats have “excellent” defensive ratings in both of Synergy’s pick-and-roll classifications while also forcing ball-handlers into a high number of turnovers in those settings.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: K-State ranks 307th in offensive turnover percentage and 305th in offensive steal rate, which means the team is not only making mistakes, but also ones in live-ball settings that potentially can be costly in transition.
▪ Defensive rebounding: The Wildcats are above average in KenPom’s average height measure, but that hasn’t translated to strong work on the defensive glass, an area where they rank 283rd.
▪ Non-transition offense: Synergy’s logs have K-State ranked in the 12th percentile in half-court settings; turnovers and average shooting appear to be the main factors contributing to the lack of production.
Player to Watch
6-foot-5 forward Xavier Sneed (No. 20)
Plus: Efficient overall player
Plus: Best skill is creating contact and getting to free throw line
Plus: 72% free throw shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: High volume three-point shooter whose accuracy has consistently hovered around NCAA average each season
Minus: Doesn’t attempt many of his shots at the rim
Minus: Has had less of an impact on the offensive glass compared to previous seasons
Prediction
KU should have one major concern heading into this one: turnovers.
The Jayhawks have had various levels of giveaway issues in each of their losses, and K-State certainly should challenge them in that regard with perimeter players who have done a great job of pressuring out defensively.
Outside of that aspect, though, there are a lot of reasons to like KU in a blowout here.
The Wildcats have turnover problems of their own, and though KU has struggled getting after teams lately, defensive energy is something that typically can be helped by an amped-up Fieldhouse crowd.
K-State — outside of its last game against West Virginia — also has had difficulty scoring in half-court settings, and that happens to match up with one of KU’s best strengths on the defensive end.
This one probably won’t be pretty to watch when both teams aren’t in transition. KU has much more shooting potential, though, and if it can get after K-State’s guards, there could be some easy points available too.
I’ll take the Jayhawks for both the win and cover.
Kansas 75, K-State 56
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Sometimes the easy choice is the right one. K-State has had trouble going against shot-blockers and also isn’t a great team on the defensive glass. That means Udoka Azubuike has the potential for a big statistical night if he plays with the same tenacity we’ve seen from him lately.
Last game prediction: Kansas 65, Texas 62 (Actual: KU 66-57)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 11-6
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 110-82-3
