Quick Scout: Trying to make sense of the KU-Iowa State line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at Iowa State, 7 p.m., Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 7-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 54
Point spread: Kansas by 5.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Ball security: This has been one of coach Steve Prohm’s calling cards since arriving in Ames, and this year is no different, as the Cyclones rank 16th in offensive turnover rate.
▪ Easy shot efficiency: Iowa State doesn’t get a lot of shots at the rim, but they are deadly with those attempts; the Cyclones rank second nationally with 74% accuracy on close shots while helped some by excellent transition scoring.
▪ Creating havoc: This actually goes against Prohm’s typical style of having his team play more conservatively on defense; the Cyclones rank 38th in defensive turnover rate and 58th in steal rate.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: The Cyclones are 298th in defensive rebounding percentage and 197th in O-board percentage, meaning KU should be expected to control the glass in this one.
▪ Three-point shooting: This weakness can easily be overcome in a one-game sample, but Iowa State doesn’t shoot as well from deep as it has in the past, attempting a roughly average number of three-pointers while making 32% (215th nationally).
▪ Transition defense: Iowa State allows an above-average number of shots on fast breaks while ranking 311th in adjusted shooting percentage defense in those scenarios.
Player to Watch
6-foot-5 guard Tyrese Haliburton (No. 24)
Plus: Ranked fourth on ESPN’s latest 2020 NBA Draft board
Plus: Posted triple-double in Iowa State’s last game vs. TCU (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists)
Plus: One of nation’s best passers
Plus: Outstanding three-point shooter who has increased his volume this season
Plus: Excellent finisher in transition
Minus: Should probably be shooting more given his efficiency, but he sometimes struggles to create shots for himself, especially in half-court settings
Prediction
Rarely do the projection systems and Vegas disagree like this.
KU is only a five-point betting favorite in this game, despite the fact that KenPom’s numbers like KU by 7 and Bart Torvik’s have the Jayhawks by 11.
I’m honestly struggling to find the source of the discrepancy here. KU has been poor on the road recently, but the projection numbers certainly work to factor in home-court advantage.
Another theory: KU has had three straight poor offensive games, which perhaps could be seen as a trend. Iowa State also does a good job of forcing turnovers, and in KU’s losses (and games away from home in particular), that’s obviously been one of the team’s top issues.
The Cyclones perhaps have been a bit unlucky defensively when it has come to opponent three-point shots, and the Jayhawks haven’t been the most confident firing those up lately anyway (though one game could obviously change that).
In the end, I don’t see enough in the matchup to move this line 2 points (or 6 if we’re using Torvik). The Jayhawks should dominate rebounding-wise and also have done a good job so far getting back in transition, which means Iowa State will likely need an above-average shooting night to get the efficient offense needed for a cover or win.
It’s certainly possible, but these Cyclones don’t seem to have the same outside-shooting firepower as some past teams.
I’ll stick with KU for the win and cover while believing this one won’t remain close in the final minute.
Kansas 73, Iowa State 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Isaiah Moss finds himself in a good personal matchup after a poor one Saturday. West Virginia’s physicality bothered him, and Moss got a perma-bench from KU coach Bill Self after being soft inside while allowing two and-ones on offensive rebounds by West Virginia players. Iowa State is much more of a finesse team, which means Moss should get an extended leash once he checks in Wednesday. KU most likely will need him offensively, as he’s continually been part of the Jayhawks’ rotations with the best spacing and overall efficiency. Look for a nice rebound from him following an eight-minute effort Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, West Virginia 58 (Actual: KU 60-53)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 8-5
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 107-81-3
