Quick Scout: A KU-Villanova prediction that could easily turn out foolish
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 1 Kansas at No. 18 Villanova, 11 a.m. Central, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
TV: Fox
Opponent’s record: 8-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 19
Point spread: Kansas by 1 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Three-point shooting: Villanova has made 38% of its threes, which is especially impressive considering the team ranks 75th nationally in three-point attempt frequency.
▪ Scoring in transition: The Wildcats are 19th in adjusted field goal percentage on fast breaks, while also getting more of those opportunities than an average team.
▪ Foul avoidance: This coach Jay Wright staple has continued this season, as Villanova ranks 22nd in opponent free throw rate.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Interior defense: Villanova has allowed opponents to get 42% of their shots at the rim — a percentage that ranks 319th nationally.
▪ Drawing fouls: This is the one area offensively where the Wildcats don’t excel, as Villanova ranks 215th in offensive free throw rate, with Wright’s teams typically relying more on skill than physicality.
▪ Creating havoc: Some past Villanova teams have done well forcing opponent mistakes, but this is not one of them; the Wildcats are below NCAA average in both defensive turnover percentage and steal rate.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (No. 24)
Plus: Kansas native and son of former KU player Lester Earl
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Plus: Gets to free throw line a decent amount and is 84% shooter there
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “very good” overall defender
Plus: Efficient overall player who can make threes (7 of 20)
Minus: Has struggled to defend in post-up situations
Minus: Has been poor shooter in mid-range (5 of 27)
Prediction
KU’s biggest concern here is the obvious: The Jayhawks, based on their style of play, allow lots of threes, and the Wildcats have capable outside shooters at basically every spot.
This is a defensive characteristic for KU that can cut both ways. The Jayhawks, in their last three games, faced opponents that didn’t have outside shooting as a strength, and when those teams tried to play out of character, it helped lead to KU covering the spread in three consecutive contests.
There’s also the environment factor here. Wells Fargo Center is a tough assignment for a first away game, and we shouldn’t ignore the fact that the Jayhawks went just 3-8 in true road games a season ago (with many of the same rotation players returning this year).
Having said all that ... I was surprised when looking into the numbers that Villanova’s defense has been this poor. The Wildcats have especially struggled keeping teams away from the rim in half-court settings, and you’d figure if there’s anyone that could exploit that to the fullest, it’d be this KU team.
There are other defensive holes as well. Villanova has been porous in ball-screen coverage, and KU point guard Devon Dotson should test the team there. The Wildcats’ non-physical style of play also could work against them a bit, as they’re not as likely to put KU’s players in foul trouble (even in a rowdy setting) with an offense that isn’t designed to create frequent whistles.
All of what’s above could be a moot point. It’d be a surprise if Villanova didn’t shoot 30 threes, and if it’s a good shooting night (45%-plus accuracy?), it probably won’t matter much what KU is able to accomplish on the offensive end.
Still, if the Wildcats shoot somewhere around expectations, I think KU could potentially break the building’s momentum and put up an efficient night simply by playing to its own offensive style, which is get-to-the-rim, half-court basketball.
While KU does have some defensive worries in this game, so does Villanova.
In the end, I’ll take KU for the win and cover, believing that Villanova won’t be able to outshoot its other issues — even though that’s entirely possible.
Kansas 78, Villanova 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
If he can survive on the defensive end while going against a player that will pull him to the perimeter, Udoka Azubuike will have the potential for a huge offensive game. Robinson-Earl will be undersized trying to defend him, and the Wildcats have already allowed some big scoring games to opposing centers so far this season. Azubuike could be motivated as well considering the last time he played Villanova — the 2018 Final Four — he was exposed defensively and had one of his most ineffective games as a Jayhawk. Azubuike has been on a noticeable uptick lately, and I think we’ll see that continue Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 82, UMKC 53 (Actual: KU 98-57)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 8-2
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 107-78-3
This story was originally published December 21, 2019 at 5:00 AM.
