Quick Scout: Why a KU-UMKC prediction is trickier because of the venue
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: UMKC vs. No. 2 Kansas, 4 p.m., Sprint Center, Kansas City
Opponent’s record: 5-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 260
Point spread: Kansas by 23 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Defensive pressure: KU is facing a third straight opponent with this relative strength; UMKC is top 100 nationally in both defensive turnover percentage and steal rate.
▪ Scoring in transition: The Roos get fast break opportunities more than an average team, and they rank 31st nationally in adjusted field goal percentage in those scenarios.
▪ Three-point defense: UMKC has done a nice job of limiting opponents’ outside shooting opportunities, as only 30% of the shots against the Roos have been threes (27th-lowest mark nationally).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Fouls: Much like Milwaukee (which KU faced Tuesday), UMKC has a major fouling problem, ranking 337th in opponents’ free throw rate.
▪ Transition defense: The Roos have allowed too many easy shots on opponents’ fast break attempts, ranking 294th in adjusted field goal percentage defense during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
▪ Dealing with size: UMKC, which is 245th in KenPom’s average height measure, has especially struggled when going against shot-blockers while having 15% of its two-point tries rejected (fourth-worst mark nationally).
Player to Watch
6-foot-10 forward Javan White (No. 25)
Plus: Clemson transfer
Plus: Team’s unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: Excellent rebounder whose strength is on the defensive glass
Plus: Leads UMKC’s regulars in both block and steal rate
Minus: Shoots way too many mid-range jumpers considering his accuracy there (22%)
Minus: Not a real three-point threat; has gone 2-for-8 this season and is 8-for-23 in his four-year career.
Prediction
Much of your view on whether KU will cover here requires a bit of personal interpretation.
That’s because the venue — Kansas City’s Sprint Center — seems to play differently for the Jayhawks at certain times of the year. KU has played well there at times in March, but these December games, historically, have come with a weak crowd and lack of energy that often has resulted in the team playing flat.
Perhaps that could change in Saturday’s game. UMKC might not bring a lot of fans, but maybe there will be enough to motivate KU’s supporters to make some noise, which certainly could be beneficial for the Jayhawks in a contest that doesn’t jump off the page as overly compelling.
The Roos, in their first season under new coach Billy Donlon, don’t possess too many scary underdog traits. In particular, they don’t shoot threes well and foul too much — two characteristics that aren’t likely to play well against this Jayhawks team.
For KU, though, 23 1/2 points is still a lot for the cover, and getting out in transition seems like a key. UMKC likes to desert the offensive glass to get back, and while it has restricted some fast break tries that way, those specific scoring opportunities have been a gold mine for opponents who have been able to outrun the Roos down the floor.
I think KU’s defense should be just fine — especially with coach Bill Self perhaps giving it a bit of extra emphasis following a poor second half against Milwaukee. This has been one of Self’s worst transition teams at KU so far, but if that can even improve a little bit, I see the Jayhawks scoring enough to get the final margin above what Vegas expects.
Kansas 82, UMKC 53
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
A quick look at previous box scores shows that opposing point guards have put up huge games against the Roos. That makes this an ideal matchup for KU’s Devon Dotson, whose two strengths — scoring at the rim in transition and drawing contact — line up directly with UMKC weaknesses.
Last game prediction: Kansas 83, Milwaukee 53 (Actual: KU 95-68)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 7-2
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 106-78-3
