Quick Scout: How KU basketball matches up with red-hot Dayton
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: Kansas vs. Dayton, 4 p.m. Central time, Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 5-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 23
Point spread: Kansas by 4 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Close shots: Dayton gets an above-average number of attempts at the rim and has made 76% of those tries — good for sixth nationally.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Flyers get a lot of offense from the perimeter as well, ranking 61st in three-point attempt frequency and 74th in accuracy.
▪ Transition offense: Dayton likes to run and for good reason, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted shooting percentage on fast breaks.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Rim protection: KU is facing a third straight opponent in Maui with this weakness, as Dayton is 282nd in opponents’ field goal percentage at the rim and 213th in shot-block frequency on those same tries.
▪ Drawing contact: Dayton has had a below-average offensive free throw rate in each of coach Anthony Grant’s first three seasons, and that includes this year, as the Flyers are 213th.
▪ Size: The Flyers are 203rd in KenPom’s average height measure, and that characteristic seems to have made it more difficult for the team to properly contest shots on defense.
Player to Watch
6-foot-9 forward Obi Toppin (No. 1)
Plus: Currently ranked eighth in KenPom’s national player of the year rating
Plus: Unquestioned go-to guy offensively
Plus: Super-efficient player who can score from all levels
Plus: Elite finisher at the rim; has made 89% of attempts there
Plus: Strong rebounder, both ends
Minus: This is ridiculous nitpicking, but Synergy’s logs rated him as a “below average” post defender last season and an “average” one this year
Prediction
KU will be facing one of the nation’s fastest-rising teams.
Less than two weeks ago, Dayton sat at 60th in KenPom’s rankings after a five-point season-opening victory over Indiana State. The Flyers are up to 23rd now, getting a huge surge following blowout wins over Power Five schools Georgia and Virginia Tech the last two days.
Dayton’s success starts offensively. Toppin is a star, and the Flyers rank No. 1 in effective field goal percentage while posting ridiculous early shooting numbers.
It feels, though, like a step back could be coming here.
KU’s defense is coming off an excellent performance against BYU, and the Jayhawks have the lineup versatility available to try lots of different options against Toppin defensively in an attempt to slow him down.
The Jayhawks also have the pieces needed to take advantage of Dayton’s soft interior defense. That starts with Udoka Azubuike, though David McCormack also is coming off an efficient night where he finished 7-for-9 as well.
Dayton has yet to face a team with above average height this season, and because of that, I could see KU’s size causing some problems. The Jayhawks definitely have rim protection, and their length on the perimeter also is tough to simulate in practice settings, as BYU found out Tuesday.
KU will allow three-point attempts defensively, and continuing a hot outside shooting streak would be one path for Dayton to potentially control this game.
I don’t think it happens, though. I see KU making it difficult for Dayton inside ... which would potentially lead to the Flyers performing like less than their normally efficient selves.
Kansas 75, Dayton 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
No need to overthink this one. KU coach Bill Self should ask Udoka Azubuike to go right at Toppin inside, and if teammates can look to him more often, Azubuike should be in line for a nice offensive game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 80, BYU 72 (Actual: KU 71-56)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 4-2
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 103-78-3
