Quick Scout: A KU-Chaminade prediction (without much help)
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Kansas vs. Chaminade, 8 p.m. Central time, Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii
TV: ESPNU
Opponent’s record: 2-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: N/A (Division II school)
Point spread: KU by 36.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Passing: Both Chaminade coach Eric Bovaird and KU coach Bill Self listed this as one the Silverswords’ best attributes; Chaminade has assisted 83% of its field goals through two games (Division I average is 52%).
▪ Fast break offense: Chaminade loves to run, ranking in the 84th percentile in Division II transition scoring efficiency last season, according to Synergy.
▪ Experience: Bovaird has four seniors and a junior in his opening lineup, and that includes three players (Tyler Cartaino, Andre Arissol, Telly Davenport) who were primary starters when healthy a season ago.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Size: None of Chaminade’s top eight rotation players are taller than 6-6.
▪ Rim protection: The Silverswords had a defensive block rate of 6.7% last season — a number that would have ranked in the bottom third of Division I schools.
▪ Carelessness: It’s a small sample through two games, but Chaminade has turned it over on 23% of its possessions thus far — a high percentage.
Player to Watch
6-foot-6 guard/forward Tyler Cartaino (No. 13)
Plus: Was first-team all-conference player last season
Plus: Outstanding inside scorer; made 64% of twos in 2018-19
Plus: Gets fouled often and is good free throw shooter
Plus: Rated an “excellent” offensive player in transition by Synergy’s logs last two years
Minus: Unproved three-point shooter; made 11 of 45 last season
Minus: Synergy has him rated as an “average” defender each of last two years
Prediction
This is the toughest prediction of the season.
When Division I teams play D-II squads, sites like KenPom and Bart Torvik — for good reason — sit out on score projections without much information available on the lower-level team.
For what it’s worth, Self has said this is the best Chaminade team he’s scouted when preparing for the Maui Invitational. The Silverswords were 23-8 last season, and also opened this year with a pair of 26-plus-point victories — including an 85-56 win over an Alaska Anchorage team that is now 5-1.
Still ... it’s Kansas vs. Chaminade. KU’s size and athleticism advantage should be apparent immediately, and if the Silverswords do continue their turnover-prone ways, those miscues will hurt twice as much when they likely turn to Jayhawks dunks on the other end.
KU defeated Chaminade 123-72 in 2015, and that also provides another good reminder that the Lahaina Civic Center’s rims have historically been super-soft, which has led to increased scoring at the Maui Invitational.
Though the Silverswords should be more competitive in this one, we should still expect a lot of scoring from KU — especially in transition — and for this to be a blowout in the end.
Kansas 102, Chaminade 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Chaminade
Hawk to Rock
Here’s what Bovaird said about KU center Udoka Azubuike: “From what I’ve seen in this tournament — we’ve played against 24 high-major teams in my career — he might be the best that I’ve ever seen at catching the ball and getting the ball to the rim in an incredibly fast manner. It’s remarkable. Everybody talks about double-teaming him, but he catches the ball and gets it to the rim before you even have a chance to double-team him. He’s special. He’s an unbelievable talent.” Yes, Chaminade is rightfully concerned about KU’s 7-foot center, who should be dunking frequently against a Silverswords team that lacks the size and strength to properly defend him.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, East Tennessee State 66 (Actual: KU 75-63)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 3-1
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 102-77-3
This story was originally published November 25, 2019 at 11:08 AM.
