Quick Scout: Why KU basketball shouldn’t judge East Tennessee State by name alone
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: East Tennessee State at No. 4 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 3-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 69
Point spread: Kansas by 15.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: Rebounding is typically coach Steve Forbes’ specialty; his team ranked fifth nationally in O-board percentage last year and is at 13th through three games this season.
▪ Interior shooting: Even against a weak schedule thus far, East Tennessee State has been impressive on close shots, making 74% of its attempts at the rim (16th nationally).
▪ Defensive aggressiveness: The Buccaneers have ranked top 60 in both defensive turnover percentage and block rate each of the last four seasons, which is one indication they like to dictate play on that end.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point defense: Last season, 41% of opponents’ shots against East Tennesse State were threes — a high number — with those teams also making 39% of their tries.
▪ Carelessness: The Buccaneers have 250th or worse in offensive turnover percentage for four seasons running, with many of those miscues appearing to be self-inflicted based upon the team’s high percentage of non-steal giveaways.
▪ Giving up easy shots: Even against weaker foes, East Tennessee State has allowed a high number of attempts at the rim. The Buccaneers do have good rim protection, but still, give up enough close attempts and teams are bound to shoot a decent percentage from two-point range.
Player to Watch
6-foot guard Patrick Hood (No. 10)
Plus: Can’t leave his side; one of the NCAA’s best shooters this season
Plus: Has made 10 of 18 threes and is 40% career outside shooter
Plus: Secure with ball; almost never turns it over
Plus: Efficient player who rarely takes bad shots
Minus: Limited offensive player outside of spot-up shooting who struggles to create for himself and others
Minus: Don’t have to worry about him inside; he attempted 23 twos and 221 threes last year
Prediction
KenPom projects KU by 12 and Torvik has the Jayhawks by 16, so it’s perhaps not surprising that the Vegas number has fallen in the middle at 15.
The bottom line is that East Tennessee State is a strong opponent capable of competing with KU, even in Lawrence. To give some perspective, here are some teams that rank behind the Buccaneers in KenPom heading into the day: Georgetown, San Diego State, Clemson, Alabama, UConn, Arizona State and Stanford.
In essence, the Buccaneers are playing at the level of a decent Power Five team without the name value (yet). And based on their strengths and weaknesses, I could see KU struggling some with this matchup.
East Tennessee State is not likely to back down from KU given its physical style, which is a good start when an underdog is playing at Allen Fieldhouse. The Buccaneers also have real problems offensively when opponents can turn up the pressure against them, but KU shouldn’t necessarily exacerbate that weakness because of the Jayhawks’ preference to play sound, positional defense while not taking excessive risks.
Forbes likely has to be worried about KU’s transition and potential for making threes, but if his own team can limit giveaways, one of those advantages would be negated. KU also, historically, has been a team that likes to attack pressure by going to the rim, which could lead to success but also might take some stress off a Buccaneers defense that has been exposed on the perimeter often.
Many times, smaller schools can come to the Fieldhouse and be overwhelmed before the game even starts (like Monmouth was last week). I don’t see that happening with East Tennessee State, though, and if the Buccaneers can establish themselves as an aggressor early, I like their chances of keeping this to single digits.
Kansas 74, East Tennessee State 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: East Tennessee State
Hawk to Rock
Good has been an excellent offensive player but a below-average defender the last two seasons, which would seem to open up Ochai Agbaji for a big game offensively. In general, Agbaji should have plenty of opportunities with spot-up threes and as a finisher in transition ... two areas where he typically excels with his skillset.
Last game prediction: Kansas 86, Monmouth 56 (Actual: KU 112-57)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 2-1
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 101-77-3
This story was originally published November 19, 2019 at 12:58 PM.
