Quick Scout: This Monmouth strength should concern KU most
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: Monmouth at No. 5 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 1-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 247
Point spread: Kansas by 26 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Transition offense: Monmouth likes to run and also has been excellent when pushing the pace, ranking 73rd in adjusted shooting percentage on fast breaks.
▪ Interior defense: The Hawks have ranked better than NCAA average in two-point defense for five straight seasons under coach King Rice with top-100 block rates in three of those five years.
▪ Depth: Monmouth ranks fifth nationally in bench minutes, as 11 players on the roster have averaged at least nine minutes per game.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Three-point defense: Last season, Monmouth’s opponents shot more threes than twos against the team ... while still making an above-NCAA-average 36% of those attempts.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Hawks shot the 10th-lowest percentage of threes last season, yet despite being that choosy, it still only finished with 30% accuracy from the perimeter.
▪ Carelessness: Monmouth has ranked among the nation’s worst in turnover percentage the last two seasons, and that trend has continued in a small sample this year.
Player to Watch
6-foot-3 guard Ray Salnave (No. 0)
Plus: Team’s unquestioned go-to guy offensively who has been efficient so far
Plus: Off to hot three-point shooting start (6-for-11)
Plus: Outstanding in transition; has made 10 of 11 shots on fast breaks, including 5 of 5 threes
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Good free throw shooter and historically has gotten to the line often
Minus: Synergy labels him as “poor” overall defender
Prediction
KenPom and Torvik both have KU winning this by 24, so the fact the Vegas line has moved up 2 1/2 points from that immediately should make us wonder what might be causing the discrepancy.
The most logical answer: Monmouth’s early-season schedule. The Hawks could definitely be road weary, as they just faced Kansas State on Wednesday in the middle of a five-straight-away-games stretch.
As mentioned before, though, the fact that Rice uses his bench so often could negate some of this disadvantage, as no player on his roster is averaging more than 26 minutes per game (KU, to compare, has three players averaging 36 minutes per contest).
The Jayhawks’ biggest key will be getting back in transition. Monmouth has one of the worst half-court offenses in the nation, so potentially eliminating the Hawks’ running game could go a long way toward KU turning this into a laugher early.
Still ... it’s also not out of the realm of possibility for KU coach Bill Self to use this game as an extended time to tinker with lineups. KU’s next opponent, East Tennessee State, is a legit opponent ranked 70th in KenPom, and the Maui Invitational is right after that.
In short, if Self wants to get a longer dress rehearsal for his two-big look — even if it’s not perfect at this point — this would be a good matchup to do it with KU having almost no chance of losing outright.
This game still could definitely get out of hand. Monmouth isn’t great with transition defense either, and that’s one area where KU has historically been able to punish smaller teams when playing at Allen Fieldhouse. Monmouth also appears to have shot a bit above its head from three to start the season, which might not continue on Friday.
Taking KU with such a big line gives me some pause — especially with the possibility that the coaching staff uses the game to experiment — but in the end, I think the Jayhawks’ firepower in transition will push the margin just above where the oddsmakers have it.
Kansas 86, Monmouth 56
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
He doesn’t appear often in this spot, but Marcus Garrett should feast defensively. Kansas State had 17 steals against Monmouth on Wednesday, which makes this an ideal matchup for the Jayhawks’ top on-ball defender. Five steals — even in limited playing time — could be a realistic goal for Garrett.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, UNC Greensboro 69 (Actual: KU 74-62)
2019-20 record vs. spread: 1-1
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 100-77-3
