Quick scout: A closer look at the KU-Baylor line
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: Kansas vs. Baylor, 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 19-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 37
Point spread: KU by 7.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: Baylor is second nationally when it comes to grabbing its misses, with the team actually improving in that area during the conference season.
▪ Three-point shooting: The Bears have made 39 percent of their threes in Big 12 play while shooting the third-highest volume of outside shots.
▪ Close shot defense: Baylor ranks 15th in defensive block rate and 47th in two-point percentage against.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Fouling: Baylor is 265th in defensive free-throw rate, ranking ninth in the same stat during Big 12 play.
▪ Creating havoc: The Bears have played a passive defensive style in Big 12 games, ranking ninth among league teams in defensive turnover percentage.
▪ Carelessness: Baylor has the Big 12’s most efficient offense, yet its biggest weakness has been an above-average turnover rate.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot-1 guard Makai Mason (No. 10)
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively
Plus: Frequent, above-average three-point shooter
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Draws fouls often and is 83-percent free-throw shooter
Minus: Not much of a threat to get to the rim off the bounce
6-foot-3 guard Jared Butler (No. 12)
Plus: High-volume, strong three-point shooter
Plus: Distributes well
Plus: Synergy’s logs list him as “very good” defender
Plus: 82-percent free-throw shooter
Minus: Inefficient player from two-point range
Minus: Turnover prone
6-foot-5 guard/forward Mark Vital (No. 11)
Plus: Elite offensive rebounder
Plus: Draws frequent fouls
Plus: Good shot-blocker and post defender
Minus: Much worse finisher inside than you’d expect
Minus: Only has 52-percent free-throw accuracy
Minus: Not a three-point shooter (5 for 31 in career)
Prediction
It’s always instructive, when looking at KU lines, to first examine if Vegas is giving the Jayhawks any home or road adjustment.
In this one, KenPom’s projections have KU by 7, while Bart Torvik’s site likes the Jayhawks by 7.6. That means the sportsbook line of 7 is not giving KU any extra benefit for being at home, even though the Jayhawks have played better there recently while covering in their last four games at Allen Fieldhouse.
Honestly, I’ve got mixed feelings on this one. I like Baylor’s chances to have offensive success, as three-point defense continues to be a KU weakness, and if the Jayhawks switch more, they run the risk of having mismatches inside on the defensive glass.
Then again ... Baylor turning it over could provide a huge boost for KU’s offense, which has struggled in recent games. Getting easy transition baskets would not only help the Jayhawks’ efficiency, it also might be a nice confidence boost for a team that hasn’t had much come easy on that end the last two weeks.
To be truthful, a close KU win here seems about right to me. Forced to pick, I’ll give Baylor the slight edge for a cover, believing the Bears will create enough open three-point opportunities to keep it competitive late.
Kansas 77, Baylor 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Baylor
Hawk to Rock
Devon Dotson will look to rebound from a couple of sub-par efforts, as he’s averaged five points, four assists and four turnovers in KU’s last two games. This is a good matchup for him, though; he should have a chance to get steals, points in transition and also a high number of free-throw attempts.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma 70, Kansas 67 (Actual: Oklahoma 81-68)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 18-12
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 95-74-3
