Here’s how comparable teams to KU have fared in the NCAA Tournament
This is strange territory for the Kansas men’s basketball team.
Not only will Saturday’s season finale against Baylor not honor any seniors, but it also might not carry the same weight as many other games with the Jayhawks already locked into the No. 3 seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament.
With that in mind, it’s a good time to focus on the big picture. KU’s string of 14 consecutive Big 12 titles is over, yet this team will still be remembered fondly if it can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, which begins later this month.
So what would history tell us about teams like KU? With help from Bart Torvik’s site, we can examine past squads with similar characteristics to get some indication.
Let’s start with seeding. Torvik’s site lists each team’s closest matches in the past decade when it comes to résumé rankings like RPI (or now NET) and wins above bubble.
The encouraging part here for the Jayhawks is that these types of squads are typically respected by the selection committee. The average seed was 3.4, meaning quality victories — the Jayhawks are currently tied for the most Quadrant 1 wins with 10 — usually carry a lot of weight.
KU’s best-case scenario isn’t difficult to find either. The 2010-11 UConn Huskies played a tough schedule, stumbled down the stretch, then played their best basketball late while taking advantage of a favorable bracket during a surprise run to the national championship.
Torvik’s site also can look at teams that are similar to KU in terms of efficiency profiles. In essence, how did the teams that were the most statistically like the Jayhawks perform in the NCAAs?
This look isn’t as promising. It’s interesting, to start, that this KU team most closely compared to another Self squad — the 2014-15 Jayhawks. One can understand the similarities: an inexperienced team with better defense than offense that relies heavily on a face-up post scorer (Perry Ellis or Dedric Lawson) to be the go-to guy offensively. Those Jayhawks lost to an underseeded Wichita State team in the round of 32.
As a whole, these comps haven’t overachieved much in the NCAA Tournament, with only one team (2014-15 UCLA) making it to the second weekend.
A few more: I messed with the controls to only look at comparisons to this KU team when it came to adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and tempo.
Again, not exactly encouraging for KU, with all but one of these teams failing to make the Sweet 16.
Final one: Here’s a look at teams that are closest to KU’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies, without tempo factored in.
This might be the most stark view of all, with the teams averaging less than one NCAA win with no Sweet 16 berths.
It’s important to note this is only a thought exercise. Past performance from similar teams does not predict future results, and the specific path the Jayhawks face will be different than each team above.
Reality, though, is that if KU succeeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, it’ll do so while bucking historical trends.
The Jayhawks have the next few weeks to prove they can be an exception.
