Why KU’s Big 12 streak may hinge on Monday ... even though Jayhawks don’t play
It’s difficult to over-emphasize how important Monday night will be for the Kansas basketball team — even without playing — as it relates to the possibility of continuing its 14-year conference title streak.
The interactive simulator at mattxsmith.github.io/big12.html, which has KenPom odds for each remaining conference game, shows us why.
Here’s the setup: The Jayhawks trail Kansas State and Texas Tech by one game with two games remaining. As of now, the simulator gives the Red Raiders a roughly 72 percent chance of winning the Big 12, with the Wildcats at 66 percent and KU around 17 percent.
Monday promises to jumble those numbers, though. K-State plays at TCU, while Texas Tech will host Texas (KU plays Tuesday at Oklahoma).
Here are the potential scenarios for Monday’s games, according to the simulator:
- If K-State and Texas Tech both win, K-State (85 percent) will be the heavy favorite to at least win a share, with Texas Tech (65 percent) behind and KU (6 percent) needing a mini-miracle.
- If K-State wins and Texas Tech loses, the Wildcats will earn at least a share of the Big 12 crown, with Texas Tech (15 percent) and KU (12 percent) still needing wins and a lot of help to tie.
- If K-State loses and Texas Tech wins, the Red Raiders will earn at least a share of the Big 12 crown, with K-State (35 percent) and KU (20 percent) remaining in the hunt.
- If K-State and Texas Tech both lose, it’s game on. K-State (79 percent) would still be the favorite, but a tie would be much more likely with both Texas Tech (59 percent) and KU (46 percent) looming.
Another look comes from the site bball.notnothing.net, which is also interactive and uses data from MasseyRatings.com. It projects K-State and Kansas will win their last three games and has Tech losing at Iowa State on Saturday.
That would make K-State the outright champion, while KU would finish second based on a better record against fourth-place Baylor than Tech. The Bears, in turn, would break a tie with the Cyclones for fourth based on head-to-head record.
But change Monday’s game against TCU to a loss for the Wildcats, and KU would not only clinch a tie for the conference title in that scenario, it also would grab the top seed in the Big 12 Tournament. That’s based on the Jayhawks and Wildcats having a better record against Baylor than Tech, which would slip to the No. 3 seed.
KU would be the No. 1 seed because of a better record than seventh-place TCU.
On the flip side, a bad week could drop the Jayhawks to a tie for fourth in the Big 12 and the fifth seed in the tournament behind K-State, Texas Tech, Baylor and Iowa State (which would have a tiebreaker based on a better record against the Red Raiders).
Meanwhile, if the Wildcats were to lose their last two games, they could fall into a three-way tie for second place with KU and Baylor or even finish in third place.
That’s a lot of “ifs” but it shows how little is settled in the Big 12 with six days left in the season.
This story was originally published March 4, 2019 at 11:04 AM.
