Quick scout: Why this isn’t the ‘Press Virginia’ we’re used to seeing
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 7 Kansas at West Virginia, 1 p.m. central, WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, West Virginia
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 8-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 78
Point spread: Kansas by 5.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: West Virginia is fifth nationally in O-board percentage, and actually has done a better job in this area since Big 12 play started.
▪ Creating contact: The Mountaineers are 12th in offensive free throw rate, relying heavily on this and crashing the glass to make up for other offensive woes.
▪ Transition efficiency: West Virginia doesn’t get as many fast-break opportunities as you’d expect, but it has performed well with those chances, ranking sixth in transition shooting percentage.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Creating havoc: We all know coach Bob Huggins’ “Press Virginia” style ... yet it’s not working well this year. The Mountaineers are 254th in defensive turnover percentage after finishing second, first, second and first in the previous four seasons.
▪ Carelessness: West Virginia ranks 307th in offensive turnover percentage, making this the team’s biggest issue on that end.
▪ Fouling: The Mountaineers are 331st in defensive free throw rate, though that has a tendency to be less of a factor when the team is playing at home.
3 Players to Watch
6-foot guard James Bolden (No. 3)
Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Most dangerous getting to rim off dribble or getting fouled
Minus: Turnover prone
Minus: Only a so-so shooter in mid-range and from three
6-foot-8 forward Lamont West (No. 15)
Plus: Efficient offensive player
Plus: Gets to line often and is 77 percent shooter there
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Selective shooter inside; has attempted just 12 twos in five Big 12 games
Minus: Attempts most threes on team, but has only been 34 percent there each of his three seasons
6-foot-8 forward Esa Ahmad (No. 23)
Plus: Has had success against KU before; scored 27 and 20 in separate games against Jayhawks his sophomore year
Plus: Strong offensive rebounder
Plus: Team’s best at getting to the free throw line
Minus: Turnover issues have gotten worse this season
Minus: Has made only 7 of 35 threes
Prediction
This isn’t the West Virginia we’ve come to expect.
Without guards like Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, and also the rim protection of the injured Sagaba Konate, the Mountaineers’ press has become a shell of its former self. According to Synergy’s logs, West Virginia is allowing 0.90 points per possession with its press (34th percentile nationally), while last season, the team surrendered 0.77 PPP (86th percentile).
Also worth noting: In a tiny sample this season, KU has done well in press situations offensively, which makes some sense given that coach Bill Self has more capable ballhandlers on this team than many years past.
I’ll be watching two other factors closely: KU’s defensive pressure and West Virginia’s threes.
The Mountaineers turn it over a lot. And the Jayhawks have the type of defensive team that should be able to pressure out a lot to force those bad plays if Self can get his guys to play with energy.
A wild card, though, is West Virginia’s threes. Much like Texas, the Mountaineers attempt a lot of outside shots with accuracy that is below NCAA average. Self was content to allow a lot of those shots on Monday, and the Longhorns burned the Jayhawks on that end with a 13-for-34 shooting night that led to 1.24 points per possession — the highest mark against KU since Villanova last season.
It wouldn’t be impossible for West Virginia to buck a season-long trend of bad three-point shooting, as we saw with Texas. As a double-whammy for KU, any shot allows West Virginia a chance at an offensive rebound, which is the area the team is most dangerous.
Which all circles back to one point above. If the Jayhawks get up the floor defensively, they can create steals and relieve all the headaches that take place when West Virginia is able to get a volume of shots.
I’ll say KU’s defense does this, with the team also closing out a road game better than it has in its three previous attempts.
Kansas 77, West Virginia 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Marcus Garrett, if not forced into an emergency stopper role against Bolden, should be able to pick on whichever West Virginia offensive forward he’s going against for at least a few poke-away steals. The sophomore’s career high for swipes in a game is four, and that could be within reach Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 70, Texas 60 (Actual: KU 80-78)
2018-19 record vs. spread: 9-8
Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 86-70-3
