What are KU’s odds to win the Big 12 this year?
Bill Self has talked often about how Kansas fans don’t appreciate conference titles as much as they should, and perhaps this is the best time to dissect what the coach probably means.
KU is getting ready to start Big 12 play this week against No. 23 Oklahoma. The Jayhawks, who were preseason ranked No. 1, are off to an 11-1 start and remained in the No. 5 spot in this week’s Associated Press poll.
So while “The Streak” of 14 consecutive Big 12 titles will end someday, almost no one seems to be expecting that to happen this season.
My own unscientific Twitter poll shows just how confident KU fans appear to be. More than 2,000 people responded when I asked, “What would you say are KU’s odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 title this season?”
“Eighty-one to 100 percent” was the top response, with 59 percent of respondents choosing that option.
Self, then, has become more than a magician here; he’s become a wizard who’s so good that people expect the impossible he’s provided on a year-to-year basis.
The reality of the numbers: In a conference like the Big 12, and with only a small sample of 18 games, no amount of statistical gymnastics could possibly get a team like KU to be an 80-percent favorite to win or share its league crown.
As is tradition now, I contacted advanced stats expert Ken Pomeroy to give me his latest numbers when it came to KU’s odds. Based on 10,000 simulations, KU’s chances of winning the league were at 54 percent, followed by Texas Tech (34) and Iowa State (15).
| % to win/share Big 12 | |
| Kansas | 54% |
| Texas Tech | 34% |
| Iowa State | 15% |
| TCU | 9% |
| Oklahoma | 8% |
| Kansas State | 6% |
| Texas | 3% |
| West Virginia | 1% |
| Source: Ken Pomeroy |
It’s important, as always, to talk about what the numbers don’t factor in. KU’s season stats that led to this projection were impacted some by the team being without Udoka Azubuike, who no doubt is one of the the Jayhawks’ best players. One could make the case that a team like Iowa State, which has been without guard Lindell Wigginton most of the year, could be better moving forward based on the same principle.
This also doesn’t factor in the history we all know about. KU has won the Big 12 for 14 straight seasons, and that expectation perhaps can help the team psychologically while also making challengers doubt themselves a bit more.
And finally, the projection is assuming KU will win about 50 percent of its close games, which is something that never seems to happen.
This, more than anything else, is Self’s greatest strength. In regular-season Big 12 games last season, the Jayhawks were 11-2 in contests decided by 10 points or fewer.
Here’s the crazy part: It was an off season for Self in that regard. The year before, KU was 12-1 in those situations, and the year before that, the Jayhawks were 10-0.
Add it all up, and in the last three seasons, Self is 33-3 — a 92 percent winning percentage — in Big 12 regular-season games decided by 10 or fewer.
The conference, once again, is projected to be among the nation’s best. Texas Tech is legitimately good this year, while Iowa State has played well and Oklahoma appears to be more balanced.
Yet, with all that known, it’s still difficult for us as humans to wrap our minds around KU potentially not winning the league this year.
That goes for stats experts as well.
I asked Pomeroy, the human, about his thoughts regarding the Big 12 race. He said based on history, and what he knows about KU and Self, he’d put the Jayhawks’ true odds at “70 percent.” That’s not 81 to 100 percent, mind you, but it’s still pretty high.
It all points to this: Self has turned a yearly accomplishment into an expectation, even if the raw math is a good reminder to those thinking the league title should be a foregone conclusion.
This feat — each season — is not easy, even if Self’s trained us to think differently.
This story was originally published December 31, 2018 at 4:23 PM.
