Quick scout: Tennessee, KU will attack the other’s defensive strength

By Jesse Newell

Updated November 23, 2018 12:11 PM

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Friday’s game: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 5 Tennessee, approximately 8:30 p.m. central, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, N.Y.

TV: ESPN2

Opponent’s record: 4-0

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 11

Point spread: KU by 3 1/2.

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪ Interior defense: Tennessee ranks second nationally in field goal percentage allowed on shots at the rim and also is 31st in block rate.

▪ Mid-range scoring: The Volunteers are a rare team that thrives by taking short jumpers, making 53 percent of those in-between attempts (sixth nationally).

▪ Transition defense: Tennessee rarely allows fast-break opportunities, and when it does, the team has held opponents to the second-worst shooting mark nationally.

3 Weaknesses

▪ Three-point shooting: It’s not that Tennessee can’t make these shots. It’s more that the team doesn’t take them often, ranking 309th in three-point rate.

▪ Three-point defense: The Volunteers surrender an above-average number of threes, which makes some sense given the team’s strong interior defense.

▪ Creating havoc: Tennessee has a good defense, but not because it pressures often. The Volunteers have a below-average defensive turnover rate and also rank 296th in steal percentage.

3 Players to Watch

6-foot-7 forward Grant Williams (No. 2)

Plus: Top player in the nation, according to KenPom’s NPOY standings

Plus: Takes on huge offensive load

Plus: Elite at drawing fouls

Plus: Strong on offensive glass

Plus: Spectacular shooter in mid-range

Minus: Doesn’t shoot threes often (only attempts about one per game)

Minus: Synergy’s logs list him as “below average” defender

6-foot-6 guard Admiral Schofield (No. 5)

Plus: Good three-point shooter

Plus: Solid passer

Plus: Rarely comes off the court

Plus: Decent defensive rebounder

Minus: Turnover prone

Minus: Poor two-point shooter who has especially struggled on shots at rim this year

6-foot-3 guard Jordan Bone (No. 0)

Plus: Good distributor

Plus: One of team’s top defenders, according to Synergy

Plus: Thrives in transition

Minus: Rarely gets shots at the rim, and struggles to finish those attempts

Minus: Can make threes, but not his strength; 34 percent for career

Prediction

I don’t particularly like the offensive matchup for either team.

Tennessee relies heavily on interior scoring, which means it will go against KU’s defensive strength there. The Volunteers should find it tougher to get shots they’re accustomed to, and they also aren’t likely to grab many offensive boards going against the big-man-heavy Jayhawks.

KU, meanwhile, loves to go inside as well, which plays right into the strengths of the defense it’s going against. Tennessee’s athleticism should provide the Jayhawks’ frontline a challenge too.

An interesting story line to track, then, should be both team’s successful-but-not-used-often plan Bs offensively. Tennessee doesn’t run in transition as much as other teams but is successful when it does so ... and KU has struggled this season getting back in these situations.

KU, on the other hand, rarely shoots threes ... but still has made 47 percent of its outside attempts (fourth nationally). If Azubuike and Dedric Lawson get it inside, they’ll probably find open teammates around the perimeter if they look for them — a likely path to efficient offense.

The spread seems about right to me in this one. In a low-scoring game, I see threes making the difference for KU.

Kansas 73, Tennessee 68

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas

Hawk to Rock

Lagerald Vick has made 18 of 29 threes this season, and he shouldn’t pass up any spot-up attempts Friday against a Tennessee team that should leave openings on the perimeter.

Last game prediction: Kansas 81, Marquette 67 (Actual: KU 77-68)

2018-19 record vs. spread: 2-2

Last five seasons’ record vs. spread: 79-64-3