Five bold predictions and game-by-game picks for KU’s football season
Perhaps more than any other FBS team, the Kansas football program is in need of some games.
Preseason talk won’t do much good this year. With a 3-33 record in the past three seasons and only one FBS win over that time, the Jayhawks know that the only thing that will change opinions about them — both among their own fanbase and also nationally — will be getting results on the field.
David Beaty also understands the significance when it comes to his own future. The fourth-year coach was No. 1 on multiple hot-seat lists the last few months, and with new athletic director Jeff Long officially in charge of the program as of Aug. 1, Beaty is fully aware this is his last opportunity to show he should be KU football’s leader in 2019 and beyond.
How will it all turn out? We’ll start to know on Sept. 1 when KU opens with FCS opponent Nicholls State — and finally gets a chance to prove, on the field, that this season might be different.
Here are five bold predictions for KU’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.
Five bold predictions
KU will (finally!) break its 46-game road losing streak: The Jayhawks can’t truly move forward as a program until they get rid of this black cloud that has hung around far too long. KU has not won a road game since 2009 (Mark Mangino was the coach, in case you were wondering), and last season, the team broke the FBS record for consecutive road losses set by Western State (Colo.) in 1936. The good news for the Jayhawks: They will have the better roster in their Week 2 game at Central Michigan. That’s not something KU has been able to say in a road game for a while ... which means KU fans might want to set up their ESPN+ packages soon. Some negative history should come to an end on Sept. 8.
The Jayhawks will have the biggest turnover turnaround in Power Five football: KU’s minus-17 turnover margin last season was not only brutal ... it also was a bit unlucky. Advanced stat expert Bill Connelly determines a team’s expected turnover margin each season based on underlying numbers, and KU’s expected figure last year was minus-8.3 — meaning almost nine turnovers were the result of the bad bounces and unfortunate breaks. The Jayhawks’ secondary, with more talent and depth, should easily improve on its four interceptions from a year ago, while it’d be difficult for KU’s own quarterbacks to duplicate their 17-pick performance in 2017. Expect this to be a weekly topic on KU’s television broadcasts; if the Jayhawks can even get close to break-even when it comes to giveaways, they should remain competitive on a more consistent basis.
Steven Sims will set a KU record for receptions in a career: It’s amazing what KU receiver Steven Sims has accomplished in three seasons at KU considering the school’s inconsistency at quarterback. Sims, who has 161 career receptions, will need 66 this season to break Kerry Meier’s KU mark set in 2009. If Sims can stay healthy, that goal should be attainable; he caught 59 passes as KU’s best offensive performer in 2017.
KU’s quarterback carousel will continue to turn: The Jayhawks, in essence, have been searching for a reliable quarterback since Todd Reesing’s departure in 2009, and early whispers from fall practices suggest that there hasn’t been much separation at the top this season either. Incumbent Peyton Bender has the best arm, though his lack of elusiveness has often made him a poor match with KU’s offensive line. Juco transfer Miles Kendrick has more ability to make plays outside the pocket, though his size (5 feet 10) will make for obvious obstacles. Meanwhile, Carter Stanley remains a part of the discussion and still holds the distinction of being the only KU quarterback to get an FBS win during Beaty’s tenure. Even after a Game 1 starter is chosen, expect KU to cycle through QBs again this season while hoping that one player eventually emerges.
Daniel Wise will win Big 12 defensive player of the year: It’s likely more difficult to win this award while playing for a team not at the top of the league standings, but Wise does have a few things going for him. He plays almost every defensive snap, which should help out his raw statistics, and also should be considered among the favorites to finish as the conference’s sack leader. Wise also is already considered a top-end talent by many (he was an all-Big 12 first-team selection by coaches last year and has been lauded as a top defender nationally by Pro Football Focus for two years running), and the fact that his brother currently plays for the New England Patriots should only help his name recognition. KU has only had one Big 12 defensive player of the year (Nick Reid in 2005), and it’ll be an impressive feat if Wise can become No. 2.
Game-by-game predictions
Sept. 1 vs. Nicholls State (6 p.m., Jayhawk Network/live stream on ESPN3): One sportsbook has KU as a 9.5-point favorite in the season opener, and whether it’s spoken or unspoken, there will be immense pressure on the Jayhawks’ coaches and players to get a victory in what’s perceived as the only “should win” of the year. I see KU prevailing in a close one. KU 27, Nicholls State 24
Sept. 8 at Central Michigan (2 p.m., live stream on ESPN+): Yes, Central Michigan dominated KU in Lawrence last season, but the Chippewas are projected for a significant step back this season. Most statistical models, at least before the season, like KU as a slight favorite. The 46-game road losing streak stops here. KU 35, Central Michigan 27
Sept. 15 vs. Rutgers (11 a.m. on Fox Sports KC): The person responsible for KU’s nonconference schedule this year deserves a raise. Rutgers is the Big Ten’s version of Kansas, so this should be a third straight winnable game for the rebuilding Jayhawks to start the season. KU 31, Rutgers 28
Sept. 22 at Baylor (time and TV TBA): A 3-0 start would (understandably) make KU football a huge story around Lawrence. Waco has been an unfriendly place for the Jayhawks recently, though; KU has been outscored 205-42 during its last four games at Baylor. Baylor 49, KU 17
Sept. 29 vs. Oklahoma State (time and TV TBA): This is where the depth of the Big 12 starts to show. Oklahoma State was picked middle of the pack in the preseason conference football poll, but there’s still a decent gap there between where the Cowboys and Jayhawks are program-wise. Oklahoma State 41, KU 21
Oct. 6 at West Virginia (time and TV TBA): KU struggled badly in these types of games a year ago, losing its four Big 12 road contests by an average score of 47-11. One way to show progress would be to hang close in a test like this that appears to be a mismatch on paper. West Virginia 38, KU 31
Oct. 20 at Texas Tech (time and TV TBA): Texas Tech has averaged 60 points in its last two games against KU. Even if KU’s secondary is improved this season, one would expect the Red Raiders to still be successful in Lubbock. Texas Tech 52, KU 20
Oct. 27 vs. TCU (time and TV TBA): Well, it can’t get worse than last year, when KU mustered just 21 yards against TCU ... the lowest total by an FBS team since at least 1997. As an aside, the Horned Frogs have sleepwalked during their last two games in Lawrence in four- and one-point wins, which would make you think it’ll be hard for the Jayhawks to continue to sneak up on Gary Patterson teams when they enter Memorial Stadium. TCU 31, KU 10
Nov. 3 vs. Iowa State (time and TV TBA): Will this be considered the most winnable Big 12 game on KU’s schedule? Probably. Is this a game where the Jayhawks should expect a victory? Probably not, given that Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has quickly turned his program into a model for what KU would like to be. Iowa State 41, KU 20
Nov. 10 at Kansas State (time and TV TBA): Quietly, KU coach David Beaty has easily covered the Vegas spread in the last two games against Bill Snyder’s Wildcats, with the Jayhawks playing better than expected in both of those contests. I’d like KU’s chances a lot better here if the game was in Lawrence. K-State 31, KU 24
Nov. 17 at Oklahoma (time and TV TBA): Two years ago, KU lost 56-3 in Norman. Four years ago, the team allowed Samaje Perine to set a FBS single-game record with 427 rushing yards. Add in the fact that Oklahoma’s coaches and players are likely to remember last year’s game when they felt quarterback Baker Mayfield was the target of some KU cheap shots, and this one has blowout potential. Oklahoma 55, KU 7
Nov. 23 vs. Texas (11 a.m., FS1): You think the national-television audience (and Texas’ players) might be reminded that the Jayhawks won the last meeting between the two teams in Lawrence? I’d say that’s a safe bet. It’s unlikely that KU will catch an unmotivated Texas team. Texas 42, KU 23
This story was originally published August 13, 2018 at 8:01 AM.