Quick scout: Texas Tech has a can’t-miss weakness

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Saturday’s game: No. 3 Kansas at Texas Tech, 1 p.m. in Lubbock, Texas (ESPN)

Opponent’s record: 16-8

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 41

Point spread: Kansas by 4 1/2

All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪ Turnovers ... both ends: Texas Tech ranks 41st nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. It also is second in Big 12 conference play in offensive turnover percentage behind only Iowa State.

▪ Defensive rebounding: The Red Raiders remain 21st nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, though they haven’t fared as well in conference play.

▪ Three-point shooting: Texas Tech has started shooting more threes in Big 12 play, which has led to offensive success. The team has made 36 percent of its threes in conference play and 38 percent for the season.

3 Weaknesses

▪ Three-point defense: Texas Tech does a horrible job closing out on perimeter shooters, as 43 percent of opponents’ shots have been threes (329th-lowest mark nationally). Teams also have made 37 percent from the outside, which means threes are by far the most efficient way to score against the Red Raiders.

▪ Getting to the line: The Red Raiders are below NCAA average in offensive free throw rate, and that’s after playing an incredibly weak nonconference schedule that was filled with mostly home games.

▪ Shot selection: Texas Tech has shot the 51st-most mid-range jumpers, which appears to be part of the reason the team ranks ninth in two-point percentage since Big 12 play began.

3 Players to Watch

Six-foot-3 guard Keenan Evans (No. 12)

Plus: Team’s go-to guy offensively

Plus: Efficient player who has made 44 percent of his threes

Plus: Strong finisher at the rim for a guard

Plus: Tech’s best passer

Minus: Synergy’s logs list him as “average” overall defender

6-foot-8 forward Zach Smith (No. 11)

Plus: Great finsher inside

Plus: Strong rebounder on both ends

Plus: Super-athletic player who is top-100 shot-blocker

Plus: Synergy lists him as “very good” overall defender

Minus: Has been much less efficient since Big 12 play began

6-foot-8 forward Anthony Livingston (No. 21)

Plus: Team’s most frequent three-point shooter who has made 43 percent

Plus: Almost never turns it over

Plus: 74 percent free throw shooter

Minus: Synergy has him as “poor defender”

Minus: Flopper

Prediction

There are two things I like to look at first when scouting KU opponents: how do they defend transition, and how do they defend threes?

Texas Tech has done a decent job of getting back defensively to limit transition points, though opponents have been successful when they’ve gotten fast-break chances. As mentioned before, the Red Raiders also are a noticeably poor three-point defensive team, which should be something this KU team can exploit if it fires away.

The Red Raiders have played noticeably better at home, though, going 14-1 at United Supermarkets Arena with victories over West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma.

Expect Texas Tech to play at its pace, attempting to slow things down on both ends while trying to make this a game of half-court execution. Add in what could be a significant turnover advantage for the Red Raiders, and one can see why this game might be closer than most think.

KU has won six straight in Lubbock, though, and this year’s team has shown an ability to play well late in close games.

I think this one will come down to the final minute. But in that circumstance, it’s hard to not pick the Jayhawks.

Kansas 68, Texas Tech 66

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas Tech

Hawk to Rock

Pick your favorite outside shooter for this spot. I’ll go with Devonté Graham, who leads KU in three-point attempts while also confidently shooting more semi-guarded ones than his teammates.

Last game prediction: Kansas State 70, Kansas 68, (Actual: KU 74-71)

2016-17 record vs. spread: 9-12-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 50-39-3

This story was originally published February 11, 2017 at 9:24 AM with the headline "Quick scout: Texas Tech has a can’t-miss weakness."