Quick scout: Why Duke’s depth might not be much of an issue vs. KU

Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Tuesday’s game: No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 1 Duke in New York, about 8:30 p.m. on ESPN

Opponent record: 2-0

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 1

Point spread: Duke by 2.

All statistics from KenPom.com and Hoop-Math.com. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 Strengths

▪ Outside scoring: Duke takes lots of threes ... while also making a high percentage of them. Last year, the Blue Devils made 39 percent of their threes, and through two games this year, they’re trending the same way with 37-percent accuracy.

▪ Ball security: One of the advantages of taking early three-pointers is that they eliminate the chance of a potential turnover later in the possession. Duke played this style effectively last season, finishing with the nation’s fifth-best turnover percentage.

▪ Foul avoidance: Like Indiana, Duke has started to subscribe to the “don’t foul” school of defensive thinking. The Blue Devils have ranked in the top 10 in defensive free-throw rate the last two seasons, and this profile should help the team manage with a shorter bench following injuries to Jayson Tatum, Marques Bolden and Harry Giles.

3 Weaknesses

▪ Allowing easy shots: In a tiny sample this season, Duke ranks 214th in allowing shots at the rim ... and that’s after facing Marist and Grand Canyon. KU coach Bill Self’s offense is predicated on creating good spacing for angles and easy shots, and some of those sets should work against Duke if the Jayhawks can execute.

▪ Defensive rebounding: This was the Blue Devils’ biggest weakness a year ago, as they ranked 330th in defensive rebounding percentage. The team has been better through two games this season, but KU will be a different challenge on the glass than Marist or Grand Canyon.

▪ Transition defense: Duke was below-average last season in both transition attempts allowed and effective field-goal percentage against in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

3 Players to Watch

Six-foot-5 guard Grayson Allen (No. 3)

Plus: One of the frontrunners for national player of the year

Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter

Plus: Team’s best last season at getting to line and is 84-percent career shooter there

Plus: Athletic player who is above-average finisher at the rim

Minus: Sometimes can struggle to score over shot-blockers

Six-foot-3 guard Frank Jackson (No. 15)

Plus: 12th-ranked freshman according to Rivals

Plus: Has many of the same strengths as Allen through two games

Plus: Strong three-point shooter who also gets fouled often

Plus: Good passer as well

Minus: Will turn it over some

Minus: Non-factor on defensive glass

Six-foot-9 forward Amile Jefferson (No. 21)

Plus: Outstanding shot-blocker

Plus: Strong finisher at the rim

Plus: Team’s top defensive rebounder so far

Minus: Not a go-to guy offensively

Minus: Poor free-throw shooter (54 percent career), though he gets there often

Prediction

On our SportsBeat KC podcast in September, I had KU starting the season 0-2, though there would be reasons now to look at this game differently because of injuries.

Missing Tatum, Bolden and Giles will hurt the Blue Devils, but it perhaps says something about basketball as a team sport (and Duke’s talent overall) that they remain a two-point favorite over KU.

If anyone should be able to overcome depth woes, it’s Duke. As mentioned before, the Blue Devils do not foul often and also didn’t appear to be too affected last week in 45- and 35-point home victories. (I also believe the officials will be less likely to call whistles tonight, knowing that this is might be the marquee matchup of the non-conference season and no one wants to see this game decided by walk-ons).

Allen will be a tough matchup for KU’s guards, who struggled to limit dribble penetration against Indiana. The Jayhawks should be able to create some of their own mismatches offensively with angles and drives, but Duke also would appear to have the edge with three-point shooting.

Much like Indiana, this should be an up-tempo, high-scoring game between two talented teams. This still feels like a KU team in transition, though, with Josh Jackson learning the offense, coaches and players adjusting to a four-guard look and Self trying to massage a roster without any proven big men off the bench.

I might feel differently if this were two months from now and some of those issues were fixed. For now, I’ll stick with my earlier pick and take the Blue Devils.

Duke 84, Kansas 78

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Duke

Hawk to Rock

Duke has had issues stopping dribble-drives, and Self proved Friday that he was most comfortable late turning his team’s offense over to Frank Mason. The senior guard should be in line for another big scoring night on Tuesday.

Last game prediction: Indiana 79, Kansas 78 (Actual: Indiana 103-99 in overtime)

2016-17 record vs. spread: 1-0

2015-16 record vs. spread: 19-15-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 42-27-2

This story was originally published November 15, 2016 at 2:51 PM with the headline "Quick scout: Why Duke’s depth might not be much of an issue vs. KU."