College football betting tips as KU, K-State and Mizzou enter Week 1 as big favorites
It takes a special kind of college football bettor to get excited about some of the games that take place early in the season.
Let’s call that type of person a “sicko.”
If you identify as a “sicko,” please don’t feel bad about the nickname. It’s a term of affection in college football circles that means you love the sport so much that you’re willing to watch (and bet on) just about any game that shows up on your TV.
Besides, this is your time to shine. Week 1 of college football is for the “sicko” in all of us, especially if you cheer for Kansas, K-State or Missouri.
The Tigers are favored by 36.5 points against Central Arkansas on Thursday. The Jayhawks are favored by 46.5 against Wagner on Friday. And the Wildcats are favored by 25.5 points against North Dakota on Saturday.
All three teams are expected to win. The question is: By how much?
It’s hard to know which teams can be trusted to cover the spread as gigantic favorites and which teams will show mercy to their opponents after they build a big lead, allowing them to stay within the number.
I’m not here to push you one way or the other this week. But here is a quick history lesson on how our “local” teams have performed against FCS opponents in recent years.
At Missouri, the Tigers beat Murray State 51-0 last season to cover the spread. But just barely, as the spread was 50.5. Two years ago, they failed to cover a 27.5-point spread against South Dakota and won 35-10.
For Kansas, the past two seasons have ended in painful fashion for Jayhawk bettors. Lance Leipold’s team failed to cover against both Lindenwood and Missouri State, despite winning those games 48-3 and 48-17.
At K-State, the Wildcats were unable to cover a 37-point spread against Tennessee-Martin, as they won 41-6. But they easily covered two years ago in a 45-0 win over SEMO.
It’s hard to say what will happen this weekend with those three teams. But “sickos” will be watching deep into the fourth quarter to find out.
Now, let’s dive into some bets that are worth making in Week 1 of college football. Last year, a $100 bettor would have won approximately $1,000 tailing my picks as I finished the year 44-31. Let’s hope for another solid showing.
The best bets in college football for Week 1
1. Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State: The Crimson Tide are no longer the juggernaut they were once were under Nick Saban, but they’re still one of the best teams in all of college football. The same can’t be said for Florida State. The Seminoles only won two games last season, and I’m expecting another down year. Give me the SEC team to win by more than two touchdowns. Pick: Alabama
2. LSU (+4) at Clemson: The LSU Tigers are notorious for getting off to slow starts. So much so that LSU has lost five straight season openers with the defeats coming against USC, UCLA, Mississippi State and Florida State (twice). That’s not a good omen for a team that will start this campaign on the road against Clemson, which returns the bulk of its ACC championship roster. Pick: Clemson.
3. Hawaii (+16.5) at Arizona: The Rainbow Warriors began the season with a feel-good victory over Stanford on the islands. But there is nothing impressive about beating the Cardinal these days. I suspect it will be difficult for Hawaii to come down from that high and properly handle a road game against a Big 12 team one week later. Pick: Arizona.
4. Missouri State (+35.5) at USC: Lincoln Riley is usually a big believer in style points when USC hosts an overmatched team early in the season. For example, the Trojans beat Utah State 48-0 in this situation last year. I expect them to score at least 50 points and win this game by a huge margin against an opponent that just recently moved up to the FBS level. Pick: USC.
5. Auburn (-2.5) at Baylor: The Bears were one of my favorite teams to bet on last season, especially when they ended the year with six straight wins. Things can change from one year to the next, but I really like what Dave Aranda has coming back at Baylor. I will gladly take the Bears as a home underdog against a team coached by Hugh Freeze. Pick: Baylor.
Last season: 44-31 (+9.9 units)
Other bets worth considering
1. Cincinnati (+6.5) vs. Nebraska: Both of these teams always seem to play close games. Nebraska will benefit from this game being played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. But why not take the underdog if there’s a strong chance things get decided on a late field goal? Lean: Cincinnati.
2. Stony Brook (+18.5) at San Diego State: I know absolutely nothing about Stony Brook. But here’s guessing a Mountain West team can beat it by three touchdowns at home. Lean: San Diego State.
3. FAU (+14.5) at Maryland: The Owls are more or less starting over from scratch with a new roster and a new coach. The Terrapins should have a bid advantage at home in Week 1. Lean: Maryland.
4. TCU (-2.5) at North Carolina: I’m skeptical that Bill Belichick will have the Tar Heels playing like the New England Patriots in Week 1. Lean: TCU.
5. Cal (+1.5) at Oregon State: This could be an entertaining pillow fight between a pair of former Pac-12 rivals. But I like the small favorite at home. Lean: Oregon State.
Upset pick of the week
Baylor (+130) vs. Auburn: I think the wrong team is favored in this one. There is a reason why the Bears are among the preseason favorites in the Big 12, and they can prove it by beating a flawed SEC team at home.
This story was originally published August 28, 2025 at 5:30 AM with the headline "College football betting tips as KU, K-State and Mizzou enter Week 1 as big favorites."