Can Kansas State Wildcats dream about NCAA Tournament if winning streak continues?
No one can blame Kansas State men’s basketball fans for dreaming big at the moment.
Coach Jerome Tang has guided K-State to three consecutive impressive victories, including a resounding road win over Iowa State. And the Wildcats are the hottest team in the nation, according to one expert’s statistical model.
Sure, K-State (10-11, 4-6 Big 12) has a losing record. But the Wildcats are rapidly improving and they are currently playing like a Top 25 team.
It’s exciting to think about what they can accomplish the rest of the way. Some may even wonder if the NCAA Tournament is within reach.
That topic is worth exploring.
Earning an at-large berth into March Madness seemed impossible a few weeks ago. Now, it’s within the realm of possibility ... even though the odds remain long.
You won’t find the Wildcats listed anywhere on bracket projections. Not at ESPN. Not at CBS. Not at Bracket Matrix. College basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa ranks their resume quality at No. 111 nationally and sums up their proximity to the bubble in two words: “Not close.”
Bart Torvik gives the Wildcats a 0.7% chance of making the NCAA Tournament and lists them as his 32nd team out of the field.
K-State needs to keep winning to enter the bubble conversation. But — cue Lloyd Christmas from the movie “Dumb and Dumber” — the Wildcats do technically have a chance.
It’s hard to say how many more wins K-State will need to make a run at the postseason. But one thing is certain: The Wildcats can’t afford many more losses.
No team has received an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with more than 14 losses. Also: No team with fewer than 16 wins has earned an at-large berth into the field.
There are 10 games left in the regular season for K-State. The Wildcats may need to win at least eight of them to be in the mix come March. But it’s worth pointing out that K-State won 19 games a year ago and barely made the NIT.
Tang’s team may need to run the table, or earn an automatic berth by winning the Big 12 Tournament.
K-State has improved its NET ranking to No. 82. That number must continue to climb. The worst NET ranking to earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament has been No. 77.
The Wildcats need quality wins to boost their NET ranking. Right now, they are 1-5 in Quad 1 games and 2-5 in Quad 2 games. Going 6-5 against a weak non-conference schedule, and starting 7-11, could be too much to overcome.
Remember, the selection committee doesn’t reward teams for finishing strong like it once did. A team’s conference record also isn’t supposed to matter.
Luckily, K-State can improve its resume with home games remaining against Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State. Road games against BYU, Arizona State, UCF and Cincinnati could also become opportunities for quality wins.
The Wildcats will face a long, uphill climb as they attempt to earn a spot in the field of 68. But they are playing well enough at the moment to believe they have a chance to get there.
This story was originally published February 4, 2025 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Can Kansas State Wildcats dream about NCAA Tournament if winning streak continues?."