These wild scenarios could send K-State (or KU) to the Big 12 football championship
The Big 12 sent out a post on social media earlier this week that may have caught some casual fans off-guard.
A grand total of 12 teams remain in contention for the conference football championship.
Even though BYU (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) and Colorado (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) are on course to play for a league title next month in Arlington, Texas, more than half the league is technically still in the race.
That includes a pair of teams with losing records -- Kansas (3-6, 2-4 Big 12) and Houston (4-5, 3-3 Big 12).
It will take an incredible amount of chaos for the Jayhawks to play their way into the Big 12 Championship Game.
How much? I’m glad you asked.
These scenarios were generated with help from Mred’s 2024 Big 12 tiebreaker generator ...
So you’re telling me there’s a chance for KU
If the Jayhawks can build off their win against Iowa State and close out the season with victories over BYU, Colorado and Baylor, they will gain bowl eligibility and finish the regular season with a 5-4 mark in conference play.
There is also a wild and crazy scenario in which they could win a massive tiebreaker for the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 championship.
The Jayhawks are projected to play the toughest conference schedule of any contending team, so they would win just about any tiebreaker against other 5-4 teams that doesn’t factor in head-to-head results like losses to Arizona State, K-State, TCU and West Virginia.
It is within the realm of possibility for 10 teams to finish in a tie for second with 5-4 conference records behind BYU. Believe it or not, Kansas would win such a tiebreaker based on the winning percentage of its league opponents.
The Jayhawks will need help from downtrodden teams like Arizona, Oklahoma State and Utah to pull off major upsets over the next three weeks for that kind of logjam to occur. So no one should reserve flights to DFW just yet.
Still, it’s enough of a possibility for Lloyd Christmas to say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
The path for Kansas State
OK, we’ve had our fun.
Let’s shift gears to a team with a more realistic shot of reaching the Big 12 championship game: Kansas State.
The Wildcats don’t control their own destiny, but they don’t need much help from BYU and Colorado. If coach Chris Klieman’s team wins its final three games — against Arizona State, Cincinnati and Iowa State — the Wildcats would make it to Arlington if the Buffaloes lose any of their three remaining games (against Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State).
K-State will win a head-to-head tiebreaker against Colorado because the Wildcats beat the Buffaloes earlier this season. K-State would also advance in a three-way tiebreaker against BYU and Colorado.
Interestingly, K-State fans will find themselves in the unfamiliar position of rooting for rival Kansas over the next two weeks as the Jayhawks play BYU and Colorado.
K-State would win any tiebreaker if 6-3 is good enough to finish second in the Big 12 standings because it played one of the hardest schedules in the league. But that would require some combination of two Colorado losses and three BYU losses, in addition to one loss from Arizona State, Iowa State and West Virginia.
It doesn’t appear that the Wildcats can make the Big 12 championship at 5-4. But if the Wildcats win out, they’ll have a shot.
Nothing set in stone for BYU and Colorado
There is an outside shot that neither BYU nor Colorado plays for a Big 12 championship.
If both teams lose their remaining three games that opens the door for many other teams.
A few possible Big 12 championship matchups exist that no one would see coming, such as K-State vs. Houston, or Baylor vs. Arizona State, or Iowa State vs. West Virginia.
One interesting scenario would send Arizona State and West Virginia — and not BYU and Colorado — to the Big 12 championship game if all four teams were to finish 7-2 in the conference standings.
That just goes to show there is much for a dozen Big 12 teams to play for as the season comes to an end.
This story was originally published November 14, 2024 at 1:21 PM with the headline "These wild scenarios could send K-State (or KU) to the Big 12 football championship."