College football odds, picks for K-State at Houston and other Big 12 games in Week 10
We were on our way to an extremely profitable day of college football betting last week until Texas Tech coughed up a big lead against TCU and fumbled away our chances of cashing a money-line wager on the Red Raiders.
Oh well. You’re never going to catch me complaining after a 4-1 showing.
Kansas and Missouri are off this week, but let’s see if we can keep finding winners anyway.
K-State (-13.5) at Houston
Is it wrong that I want to call this game The Letdown Bowl?
Kansas State is coming off three emotional victories against Colorado, West Virginia and Kansas. The Wildcats are excited for their second idle week of the season to get here, not to go on the road and play a mediocre team like Houston.
That could give the Cougars an advantage in this game. Then again, Houston is also coming off a big high, as Willie Fritz’s team just pulled off an upset against Utah. Houston hasn’t performed well after a win this season. It lost 34-0 at Cincinnati a week after beating Rice. And it lost 42-14 after it defeated TCU.
It won’t be a surprise if neither team looks stellar in this spot.
K-State has traditionally struggled to cover the spread as a road favorite under Chris Klieman. But that could change this week. This number feels a little low. Houston is not known for its offense, and it could be hard for the Cougars to keep up with the Wildcats, even if Avery Johnson and company get off to a slow start.
My favorite bets
Arizona State (-2.5) at Oklahoma State: This feels like a dream matchup for the Sun Devils. Arizona State loves to run the ball with Cam Skattebo, who ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 848 rushing yards this season. Oklahoma State shouldn’t be able to stop him with a run defense that is allowing six yards per rush, a number that ranks dead last in the conference. Pick: Arizona State.
TCU (+2.5) at Baylor: Many gave up on the Bears too quickly when they began the season 2-4. In hindsight, losing competitive games against Colorado, BYU and Iowa State wasn’t the sign of a terrible team. Baylor has since dropped 59 points on Texas Tech and defeated Oklahoma State by double digits. Sawyer Robertson is a big upgrade at quarterback. I expect the good vibes to continue in Waco against a TCU team that just needed a miracle comeback to beat Texas Tech at home. Pick: Baylor.
Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan: The Ducks have been on an impressive roll since they beat Ohio State. Oregon followed up that win with blowout victories against traditional Big Ten opponents Purdue and Illinois. I expect another lopsided affair when the Ducks head to Michigan. The Wolverines don’t have enough talent challenge the No. 1 team in the country. Pick: Oregon.
Air Force (+21.5) at Army: I would normally be rushing to bet on Air Force in this situation, but this doesn’t figure to be a typical game between service academies. Army is annihilating teams with its rushing attack and has covered this number in five of seven games this season. Air Force is just plain bad. Navy beat the Falcons 34-7 earlier this year, and that game was played at Air Force. Things could easily go worse for them at Army. Pick: Army.
Navy (-11) at Rice: That’s right. I’m betting on two service academies this week. Let’s get weird! We successfully faded the Midshipmen last week, but it’s time to back them again. Navy didn’t have enough talent to hang with Notre Dame. But it has destroyed every other team on its schedule. Expect Navy to get back to its dominant ways as it steps down in class against Rice. Pick: Navy.
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 28-17 (+9.5 units)
Upset pick of the week
Pittsburgh (+260) at SMU: Both of these teams are still dreaming of a conference championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff. But only one of them will continue to have those high aspirations after this game is played. With so much on the line, I am expecting a close game in Dallas. That should favor the Panthers, who are 3-0 in games decided by one score. SMU will also be without tight end RJ Maryland and quarterback Kevin Jennings is questionable. That is enough uncertainty for me to take a swing at the money line here with the Panthers. Pick: Pitt.
Season: 3-6 (-0.9 units)
Other lines worth considering
Florida (+16.5) vs. Georgia: The Gators have quietly played decent football of late. I won’t be surprised if they can keep things close against the Bulldogs. Lean: Florida.
Arizona (+5.5) at UCF: The Wildcats might be the worst team in the Big 12. The Knights haven’t been good, either. But they have played hard the past two weeks. I see them winning this game at home. Lean: UCF.
Louisville (+11) at Clemson: The Tigers have easily covered this number in every game since the season-opener. Lean: Clemson.
USC (-2.5) at Washington: Lincoln Riley’s team has not performed well in road games against traditional Big Ten teams. That shouldn’t hurt the Trojans here, as they head north for a familiar away game at Washington. Lean: USC.
UCLA (+7.5) at Nebraska: The Bruins don’t have many wins, but they have a ton of covers. Lean: UCLA.
This story was originally published October 31, 2024 at 7:00 AM with the headline "College football odds, picks for K-State at Houston and other Big 12 games in Week 10."