College football odds, picks and predictions for Kansas, K-State, Missouri in Week 4
We got back to our winning ways last week.
Let’s see if we can keep the good vibes rolling as conference games arrive across the country in Week 4 for Kansas, K-State and Missouri.
Kansas (+2.5) at West Virginia
Call this The Desperation Bowl.
The Jayhawks need a victory to rebound from a 1-2 start and so do the Mountaineers. The winner of this game will have renewed hope of competing for a Big 12 championship. The loser will be in danger of missing out on a bowl.
It’s interesting that this line hasn’t budged off of 2.5 points all week. Oddsmakers and bettors seem split on this one.
If you still believe in the Jayhawks, might I suggest taking them on the moneyline? If Jalon Daniels can limit his interceptions and KU football players can start recovering fumbles in the open field then this team is good enough to start winning games. I’m not sure there are any easy fixes for Neal Brown’s team.
Vanderbilt (+20.5) at Missouri
This can become a good opportunity to fade the Tigers if the line jumps above 21. Yes, Vanderbilt is one of the worst teams in the SEC, but it has a unique offensive style that features lots of runs and long drives. If quarterback Diego Pavia plays well, it’s not hard to imagine the Commodores keeping this within three touchdowns.
Missouri also seems content to save its best plays for the best competition. I’m not sure how much interest Eli Drinkwitz has in winning this game by 35 instead of 20.
Kansas State (-6.5) at BYU
Life as a road favorite has not been kind to the Wildcats lately. Chris Klieman’s team has gone 1-4 against the spread as a favorite in its past five road games. The Wildcats lost two of those games outright last season to Missouri and Oklahoma State. They also failed to cover against Tulane two weeks ago.
This spread is under a touchdown, which means K-State has a chance to cover even if this game turns out to be close. But this is a tricky spot for K-State. The Wildcats are coming off an emotional win over Arizona and Oklahoma State is next on the schedule. BYU will be highly motivated for its Big 12 home opener.
My favorite bets
Utah (-2.5) at Oklahoma State: Bet against Mike Gundy at your own peril. Few, if any, college football coaches have been more dependable as a home underdog than the head man at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have not only covered 10 straight games as home dogs, they have won 10 straight games as home dogs. I also think Oklahoma State is better than Utah, but that trend is too good to ignore. Pick: Oklahoma State.
Rice (+5.5) at Army: The Owls are off to a 1-2 start with a pair of lopsided losses. I don’t trust them to turn things around on the road against Army and its unusual running attack. Pick: Army.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Oklahoma: The Sooners were fortunate to cover the spread in their opener against Temple. They were lucky to win at all in subsequent games against Houston and Tulane. Meanwhile, Tennessee is bulldozing everything in its path. I also think Josh Heupel could be out for some revenge against a team that once fired him as offensive coordinator, even though Oklahoma is his alma mater. Pick: Tennessee.
USC (-5.5) at Michigan: The Trojans (and their defense) have been one of the most pleasant surprises in all of college football this season. The Wolverines (and their boring offense) have been the opposite. I like USC to win by at least a touchdown. Pick: USC.
Arizona State (+2.5) at Texas Tech: No Big 12 team has surpassed preseason expectations more than the Sun Devils, but I wonder how impressive their 3-0 start truly is. Wyoming and Mississippi State look dreadful, and Texas State is a Sun Belt team. Texas Tech figures to be a step up in competition, and the Red Raiders seemed to get right last week against North Texas. Pick: Texas Tech.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 7-8 (-1.8 units)
Upset pick of the week
Houston (+140) at Cincinnati: The Cougars seem to be getting better each and every week under new coach Willie Fritz. Things got off to a rocky start for Houston in a lopsided loss to UNLV. But it responded by nearly pulling off an upset against Oklahoma and then pounding Rice. If that improvement continues I won’t be surprised to see the Cougars win this game on the road. Pick: Houston.
Season: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
Other lines worth considering
UTEP (+9.5) at Colorado State: This could be an epic pillow fight between two awful teams. Either side winning by more than a touchdown would feel like a surprise. Lean: UTEP.
Georgia Tech (+10.5) at Louisville: Too many points. Georgia Tech can make this game ugly in a hurry with its rushing attack. Lean: Georgia Tech.
Fresno State (-13.5) at New Mexico: The biggest fear in this game is that Fresno State will take a big lead and let up, allowing New Mexico to get a backdoor cover. Lean: Fresno State.
UCLA (+23.5) at LSU: The Bruins might be the worst team in the Big Ten. Staying within this number could be a challenge for them on the road. Lean: LSU.
TCU (-2.5) at SMU: I would be more confident in the Horned Frogs if the Mustangs weren’t coming off a bye. You never know how much SMU will change things up for this game. But TCU has looked like the far superior team this season. Lean: TCU.
This story was originally published September 19, 2024 at 6:30 AM with the headline "College football odds, picks and predictions for Kansas, K-State, Missouri in Week 4."