Five bold predictions + game-by-game picks for Kansas State’s 2024 football season
A new era is about to begin for the Big 12.
The same could said for college football as a whole.
Kansas State is eager to try and take advantage of the shifting landscape. Now that perennial conference powers Oklahoma and Texas have left for the SEC, it is time for a new program to carry the Big 12 flag.
Why not the Wildcats?
Truth be told, they have bigger goals than just winning their league. Starting this season, an expanded playoff will allow more teams (12) than ever before (4) to compete for a national championship. Who says Chris Klieman and his squad can’t earn a spot on the bracket?
The Wildcats have plenty to play for as they enter the 2024 season. Will they achieve their goals? There’s no better time to make a few prognostications.
Here are five bold predictions for K-State’s upcoming season, plus game-by-game picks:
1. Avery Johnson will throw his way into the K-State record books
Only one sophomore has thrown for more than 2,000 yards in a season for the Wildcats.
That will change later this year with Avery Johnson taking over the offense.
As a freshman, he threw for 479 yards and five touchdowns despite attempting more than 10 passes in just one game. He should flirt with 2,500 passing yards now that he is the unquestioned starter at quarterback.
His ability to run the ball, combined with a pair of talented running backs behind him, could temper his passing upside and make it difficult for Johnson to match the 3,353 yards that Josh Freeman piled up as a sophomore in 2007. But Johnson should sail past the No. 2 spot that currently belongs to Carl Straw at 1,947 yards.
FanDuel has set Johnson’s over/under passing yardage at 2,350. I would advise betting the over.
K-State offensive coordinator Conor Riley wants to let Johnson throw the ball and limit his designed runs. That should give him plenty of opportunities to make plays with his arm this season.
2. The Wildcats will win all their non-conference games
Predicting that K-State will start the season with victories against Tennessee-Martin, Tulane and Arizona might not sound all that bold, but it would buck a recent negative trend for Klieman and his teams.
K-State has failed to start 3-0 in each of the past two seasons. The Wildcats also suffered an early loss in 2020.
Arkansas State, Tulane and Missouri are the teams that have been able to spring upsets on K-State in recent seasons.
With that in mind, playing a road game against Tulane and then hosting Arizona on a Friday doesn’t exactly sound like a walk in the park. But the Wildcats should be able to take care of business this season.
They can thank coaching changes, at least in part, for that. Tulane is trying to replace Willie Fritz and Arizona is working to replace Jedd Fisch. Both of those coaches moved on to higher-profile jobs with Houston and Washington, respectively.
Tulane will be hosting K-State in Jon Sumrall’s second game. K-State will be hosting Arizona in Brent Brennan’s third game.
Expect K-State to take advantage and enter Big 12 play undefeated.
3. K-State will go under its projected win total of 9.5
Look, the ceiling is very high for this K-State football team.
Some models project the Wildcats to be favored in all 12 of their games. It’s within the realm of possibility that they could go undefeated. A Big 12 championship and a playoff berth are within reach.
But those are, obviously, best-case scenarios.
What happens if a key player suffers an injury? How many times will games take unexpected turns?
Things very seldom go exactly as planned in college football. For that reason, I think this team is more likely to win nine games than 10-plus.
Why? Well, for starters Klieman has never won more than nine games in a regular season at K-State. And he’s only won nine once.
Being favored in a game also doesn’t guarantee victory. There are still plenty of coin-flip games on this schedule.
The Wildcats lost three times as favorites last season (Missouri, Oklahoma State, Iowa State) and Klieman has lost at least one game as a favorite in every season since he took over as K-State’s coach. For the record, the Wildcats also lost to Tulane (2022), Baylor (2021), Arkansas State (2020) and West Virginia (2019).
The best college football teams feature continuity at head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback. This team doesn’t have that. There could be growing pains as Johnson takes over the offense as a sophomore and Conor Riley calls plays for the first time as a coordinator.
Replacing perhaps the best offensive lineman (Cooper Beebe) and tight end (Ben Sinnott) in school history also won’t be easy.
This team reminds me of Clemson from last season. The Tigers bid farewell to quarterback DJ Uiagalelei when he transferred to Oregon State and welcomed in Garrett Riley as their new offensive coordinator. Fans had huge expectations for sophomore Cade Klubnik, and he threw for 2,844 yards. But Clemson went 8-4.
There is a chance that Johnson is simply talented beyond his years and he plays like a Heisman Trophy contender this year. If that happens, this prediction will end up on Freezing Cold Takes. But I see too many question marks to expect this to be Klieman’s best team.
4. Marques Sigle will lead K-State in interceptions
Heck, he might even challenge the school’s single-season record for picks. That currently belongs to Chris Canty with eight, by the way.
Sigle, a senior safety, was in position to grab quite a few interceptions last season. He simply didn’t hold on to most of them. That should change this season, as he has emphasized ball security at practice for several months.
K-State’s safeties should have plenty of opportunities for interceptions this season. With proven starters Keenan Garber and Jacob Parrish locking down the perimeter at cornerback, Sigle stands to benefit.
5. Damian Ilalio will make a big impact on defense
I’m not exactly sure what it will look like in terms of statistics, but Ilalio will make a name for himself this season.
The junior defensive tackle is projected to see lots of playing time along with Uso Seumalo. Together, they should form a strong rotation in the middle of K-State’s defensive line. Ilalio made just 11 tackles in his first two seasons with the Wildcats but seems poised for a breakout season now that he has matured into an upperclassman.
2024 schedule and game-by-game predictions
Aug. 31 vs. Tennessee-Martin (6 p.m. on ESPN+): The Skyhawks went 8-3 and finished as a top 25 FCS team last season. But that shouldn’t mean much when they travel to Bill Snyder Family Stadium for this game. The Wildcats should be able to do just about anything they want in the season-opener. It’s also worth nothing that nobody is better at beating FCS teams than Chris Klieman. His record against them is 71-6, dating back to his time at North Dakota State. K-State 38, UT-Martin 3.
Sept. 7 at Tulane (11 a.m. on ESPN or ESPN2): This is a revenge game for the Wildcats. Two years ago, Tulane waltzed into Manhattan and left town with a victory that ended up propelling the Green Wave all the way to the Cotton Bowl. Things have changed for Tulane since then. Willie Fritz is now the head coach at Houston and Jon Sumrall is now the lead man in New Orleans. With that in mind, it’s hard to see the Green Wave being as good as they have been. By no means will this be an easy game for K-State, but I expect the Wildcats to triumph. K-State 28, Tulane 13.
Sept. 13 vs. Arizona (7 p.m. on FOX): You could say that K-State won the lottery when it comes to facing teams with brand new coaches. Arizona was one of the hottest teams in the country last season with Jedd Fisch at the helm. But he is now at Washington. The Wildcats return quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMilan. That combination could make them one of the most explosive offenses in the Big 12. But I don’t think it will be easy for them to “run it back” with Brent Brennan coming in as the new head coach. K-State should take advantage and win a shootout on this rare Friday home game. K-State 41, Arizona 35.
Sept. 21 at BYU: Can the Wildcats handle their first trip to Provo? It’s a long way out there and elevation will be a factor. Playing this game in the mountains adds an element of mystery. Still, the Cougars aren’t supposed to be very good. K-State could win this one big. K-State 37, BYU 10.
Sept. 28 vs. Oklahoma State: This has not been an easy series for K-State since Mike Gundy arrived in Stillwater. The Cowboys have gone 10-6 against the Wildcats since his hire in 2005. And he owns a 4-1 record against Chris Klieman. To be fair, K-State demolished Oklahoma State 48-0 when the Pokes last visited Manhattan in 2022. But that Cowboys team was decimated by injuries and finished the year in a tailspin. This time around the Cowboys should have the best offensive line in the Big 12 and Ollie Gordon might be the best running back in the country. It could be difficult for K-State to handle their physicality. Oklahoma State will win this game in the trenches. Oklahoma State 21, K-State 13.
Oct. 12 at Colorado: On the surface, it looks like K-State will benefit from a bye week leading into this game. But the Wildcats have lost plenty of times before in this situation under Klieman. When he has extra time to prepare for a game, Klieman has gone 1-4 at K-State (excluding the 2020 pandemic season). He has also lost his last three games coming off a bye. I’m not sure why that is, but something clearly needs to change. Colorado will also have two weeks to get ready for this game, which could play in its favor. Deion Sanders doesn’t have much depth on his roster, but his starters are very talented. Give them time to rest and they could respond with one of their best games. Colorado 43, K-State 40.
Oct. 19 at West Virginia: Some may jump off the K-State bandwagon after a pair of losses, but that would be foolish. The Wildcats tend to play their best when they are doubted and they will get back to flexing their muscles in this game. West Virginia surprisingly went 9-4 last season, but none of its wins came against strong teams. The Mountaineers rely on their rushing attack to win and the Wildcats should be able to shut that down. They will take an early lead and coast in Morgantown. K-State 35, West Virginia 21.
Oct. 26 vs. Kansas: The Wildcats were fortunate to escape Memorial Stadium with a 31-27 victory last season. The Sunflower Showdown is no longer the cake walk it used to be for K-State. Nevertheless, I expect the Wildcats to win their 16th straight game in this rivalry. Why? Beating the Jayhawks is what they do best. It’s as simple as that. K-State 33, KU 24.
Nov. 2 at Houston: Don’t be surprised if this turns out to be a difficult game for K-State, even though most analytical models project the Wildcats as a 14-point road favorite. Houston is going to pull off an upset in Year 1 of the Willie Fritz era. Maybe quarterback Donovan Smith will heat up and make it happen against K-State. The Wildcats might overlook this game just one week after the Sunflower Showdown. They also beat Houston by 41 last season. This is a trap game for Klieman’s team. K-State 27, Houston 21.
Nov. 16 vs. Arizona State: The final two home games of the season should be blowout victories for the Wildcats. Arizona State might be the worst team in the Big 12. Klieman will really need to screw up the bye week that comes before this game for the final score to be close. K-State 45, Arizona State 0.
Nov. 23 vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats went 3-9 in their first season as Big 12 members. They should improve this year, but that won’t be enough for them to hang with the Wildcats on senior day. K-State 40, Cincinnati 14.
Nov. 30 at Iowa State: K-State fans like to chalk up last season’s 42-35 loss to Iowa State as a fluke. While it’s fair to question how much differently that Farmageddon game might have gone in normal weather, blizzard conditions can’t be used to explain how the Cyclones have won four of the past six games in this rivalry series. K-State’s lone win over Iowa State since 2019 came by just one point in 2022 when the Wildcats had a Big 12 championship team and the Cyclones missed out on a bowl. Iowa State returns the vast majority of its roster and will be hard to beat in the final week of the season. Iowa State 30, K-State 20.
Final Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12).
This story was originally published August 22, 2024 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Five bold predictions + game-by-game picks for Kansas State’s 2024 football season."