Three reasons why Kansas State will make or miss NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday
Jerome Tang admits the next few days are going to be nerve-wracking for both him and the entire Kansas State men’s basketball team.
It’s easy to understand why.
Most bracket experts think the Wildcats are going to miss out on the NCAA Tournament and fall just short of an at-large berth after they exited the Big 12 Tournament with a record of 19-14. But Tang thinks his squad deserves an invitation to the Big Dance and he made a passionate case for them on Thursday night.
Who is right — the Bracketologists or the K-State basketball coach? We won’t find out until Selection Sunday.
But we can sure speculate between now and then. Here are a few reasons why the Wildcats could receive both good or bad news later this week.
Why K-State will make the NCAA Tournament
1. Tang made some valid points while he pleaded his case for March Madness. The best one: Few bubble teams have more impressive wins than the Wildcats. A team that is capable of beating Baylor, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas and Texas in the same season has proven it is more than capable of winning games against NCAA Tournament competition.
2. The selection committee has shown love to the Big 12 in recent seasons by rewarding most teams that finished anywhere near .500 in conference play. West Virginia reached the NCAA Tournament last season with a league record of 7-11. The year before that, TCU got in at 8-10 and Iowa State made it at 7-11. Conference record isn’t an official criteria for selection, and it’s worth pointing out that Oklahoma State was snubbed last year at 8-10, but the Wildcats are in that same range.
K-State went 8-10 in the Big 12 this season and then won a game at the league tournament. Not bad in the strongest conference in the nation. It’s possible that could be enough to earn a bid.
3. Maybe Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm and all the other experts are wrong. In 2016, Tulsa didn’t appear on a single projection that was tracked by Bracket Matrix but the Golden Hurricane shocked the nation by earning an at-large berth into the field of 68 with a record of 20-11.
As of Friday, K-State was only appearing on three mock brackets out of the 115 tracked by Bracket Matrix. Lunardi and Palm both had the Wildcats at least five teams removed from a bid. But they aren’t on the committee. Maybe they are too low on K-State.
Why K-State won’t make the NCAA Tournament
1. The Wildcats do not have a strong NET ranking, which is the tool that the selection committee uses to help seed teams in the NCAA Tournament. K-State dropped to No. 70 after it lost to Iowa State. That number is well below the usual cutoff line for at-large teams.
Ken Pomeroy (No. 69) and Bart Torvik (No. 63) are a little higher on the Wildcats. But their numbers are still well below most other bubble teams. Those metrics could really hurt the Wildcats.
2. Too many of K-State’s wins came in overtime and too many of their losses came by big margins. The Wildcats famously went 7-0 in overtime games this season. While that is a sign of a good coaching and a clutch team, it also shows how vulnerable this squad was on some nights.
Beating Oral Roberts and North Alabama in overtime hurt K-State’s metrics. So did double-digit losses to Nebraska, USC and Oklahoma. It may sound silly, but K-State’s postseason resume would look much better with overtime losses against quality teams and blowout wins over bad teams.
3. Success was hard to come by for Tang’s team away from Bramlage Coliseum. The Wildcats were a fantastic 14-3 at home but a mediocre 5-11 in all other venues. Their only Quadrant 1 victory away from home came against Texas in the Big 12 Tournament. That could hurt them on Selection Sunday, and ultimately land them in the NIT.
This story was originally published March 16, 2024 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Three reasons why Kansas State will make or miss NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday."