Why bracket experts think K-State still has more work to do for NCAA Tournament bid
At about this time last week, Kansas State’s odds of reaching the NCAA Tournament were going in the wrong direction.
You could find the Wildcats in some bracket projections, but not all. They were on the bubble, but most agreed they wouldn’t make the field of 68 if March Madness started right then and there.
Fast forward a few days and K-State is now coming off a massive victory against No. 4 Kansas that could potentially serve as a turning point in the season. But the Wildcats are currently showing up on even fewer bracket projections than they were before.
Bracket Matrix, a web site that averages out a team’s ranking from dozens of different bracket projections, has dropped K-State 10 spots on its bubble forecast. The Wildcats are only showing up on three projected brackets across the entire internet, according to the site.
What gives?
It seems losing four straight games, with the final defeat coming against Big 12 bottom-feeder Oklahoma State, did more damage to K-State’s postseason resume than some expected. Even after beating KU earlier this week on Big Monday, the Wildcats rank No. 76 in the NET, No. 72 at Ken Pomeroy and No. 71 at Bart Torvik.
In other words, head coach Jerome Tang and his team still have work to do if they want to earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament next month.
ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi currently lists 10 teams in front of K-State on his projected bubble. In his mind, the Wildcats need to pass St. John’s, Wake Forest, Colorado, Nevada, Providence, Xavier, Villanova, Memphis, Oregon, Gonzaga and one team in his projected field just to earn a spot in a play-in game at the First Four.
Question is: How many more wins do the Wildcats need to jump all that competition?
Tang has been steadfast in his belief that K-State (15-8, 5-5 Big 12) will return to the Big Dance with four more conference victories. In his mind, any team that finishes the Big 12 scheduling gauntlet with a record of .500 or better deserves to play in the NCAA Tournament.
Unfortunately, conference record is not an official criteria that the selection committee will consider in a few weeks.
So there is no magic number for K-State to chase as it heads to BYU on Saturday and then closes out the regular season with eight more league games. The Wildcats may need six more victories. Or maybe they only need four more victories. Perhaps this debate won’t be settled until the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
Winning at home will be important. K-State is fortunate to play four more games inside Bramlage Coliseum this season, against TCU, BYU, West Virginia and Iowa State.
But winning on the road could be even more meaningful.
K-State’s record against Quad 1 teams this season is only 2-4, with home victories over Baylor and Kansas standing out as signature wins. K-State will likely play two more Quad 1 games at home this season, against BYU and Iowa State. But all of its remaining road games will count toward its Quad 1 record.
The Wildcats have work to do if they want to improve their postseason resume. But a difficult closing schedule will give them many opportunities to do exactly that.
This story was originally published February 8, 2024 at 12:15 PM with the headline "Why bracket experts think K-State still has more work to do for NCAA Tournament bid."