Kansas State has realistic path to Big 12 championship game with new tiebreaker rules
Don’t feel bad if you are having trouble trying to figure out which Big 12 football teams are in the best position to reach the conference championship game next month.
Making sense of the league’s new tiebreaker procedures, and then applying them to the current logjam in the Big 12 standings, can seem more difficult than solving a Rubik’s Cube.
For example: Let’s say Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all win their final two games of the season. That would put them in a three-way tie for second place with identical conference records of 7-2, if Texas also continues winning and finishes all alone in first.
At first glance, the Cowboys seem like the obvious winner of that tiebreaker seeing as how they own head-to-head wins over K-State and OU. But that is not the case.
Confused yet?
In that scenario, the Wildcats would actually advance to Arlington, Texas for the Big 12 championship game. Why? Because K-State and Oklahoma didn’t play this season. So there are no head-to-head results to use among that trio of teams. The tiebreaker would instead go to record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings, which would almost certainly be Iowa State or Kansas.
Strange as it sounds, the Wildcats can trump both OSU (lost at Iowa State) and OU (lost at Kansas) by beating their two main rivals at the end of the regular season.
K-State appeared to have little hope of defending its conference title when it lost at Texas two weeks ago. But the Wildcats have several realistic paths to AT&T Stadium now that Oklahoma State surprisingly lost at UCF. Four teams (Iowa State, K-State, OSU, OU) are currently tied for second place in the league standings. They all have hope.
Even Kansas and Texas Tech, which are currently tied for sixth, are still alive.
Much can happen over the next two weeks, so trying to project a matchup for the Big 12 championship game right now remains difficult. But here’s a look at how things can break right for K-State and the Wildcats can reach the conference championship:
Beat KU and Iowa State
The Wildcats need to keep winning.
Sorry if that sounds like a statement from Captain Obvious, but it is worth saying before we move on to any other scenarios. In order for K-State to take advantage of the league’s new tiebreaker rules with uneven scheduling, Chris Klieman’s team needs to finish with a pair of wins. That journey starts on Saturday at Kansas and finishes a week later at home against Iowa State.
If the Wildcats log two rivalry wins, they will finish 9-3 overall with a 7-2 record in Big 12 play. That could be enough for them to play in the Big 12 championship game. But another loss would be difficult to overcome. Not impossible, mind you, but they would need lots of help.
Avoid head-to-head tiebreakers
K-State will need to hope it finishes all alone in first or second place, or in a jumbled tie with three or more teams.
The Wildcats stand to benefit from most convoluted tiebreakers involving multiple teams. But they won’t hold any head-to-head tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Texas.
Why? This one is much easier to explain. K-State lost to both Oklahoma State and Texas. So the Wildcats can’t win a tiebreaker against either of those teams if they are locked in a two-way tie for second. Oklahoma would also likely trump K-State in that scenario because it beat Texas.
But K-State could benefit from a three-or-four way tie in the standings if it goes on to beat KU and Iowa State.
K-State fans should root for OU, OSU and Texas
Plain and simple: K-State will reach the Big 12 championship game if chalk holds over the next two weeks.
If K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas all win their remaining games, we will likely see the Longhorns and the Wildcats in the Big 12 championship game.
The only caveat in that scenario: the Wildcats would also need Kansas to beat Cincinnati on the final weekend of the regular season. Believe it or not, a win by the Bearcats in that game could swing the tiebreaker in Oklahoma’s favor. So that means K-State fans might end up also cheering for KU.
Usually, K-State fans would be hoping for those teams to lose. And there are certainly some scenarios in which the right combination of losses from both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would help K-State. But it would be very bad for the Wildcats if, say, Oklahoma State lost at Houston this weekend, and both Oklahoma and Texas won out.
Remaining schedules
Iowa State: Texas, at K-State.
Kansas: K-State, at Cincinnati.
Kansas State: at Kansas, Iowa State.
Oklahoma: at BYU, TCU.
Oklahoma State: at Houston, BYU.
Texas: at Iowa State, Texas Tech.
Texas Tech: UCF, at Texas
This story was originally published November 13, 2023 at 11:12 AM with the headline "Kansas State has realistic path to Big 12 championship game with new tiebreaker rules."