Breaking down the good and bad of Kansas State’s bracket path for NCAA Tournament
Now that the field of 68 is set in stone and the NCAA Tournament bracket has been revealed it’s time to analyze how the selection committee treated Kansas State.
Did they do a favor for the Wildcats and give them an easy path to the Final Four in the East Region? Or are the Wildcats stuck in a loaded part of the bracket that features a treacherous path forward?
At first glance, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. The West Region appears to be the strongest of the four. So K-State was fortunate to be sent elsewhere. But the Wildcats also tend to play their best basketball in front of a friendly crowd. They won’t have a fan advantage playing in Greensboro, North Carolina. If they advance beyond the first round and play Kentucky in the Round of 32 they will almost certainly be the road team in that game.
Bringing their own energy to Greensboro Coliseum and then possibly Madison Square Garden will be of the utmost importance if Jerome Tang’s team advances to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
Of course, matchups are even more important than the site of these games. So let’s dive into those, starting with an opening round game against No. 13 seed Montana State on Friday.
K-State favored by 8 1/2 against Montana State
At minimum, the Wildcats should advance to the Round of 32 in this tournament.
That doesn’t mean it will absolutely happen. Upsets happen in March Madness all the time. It’s what makes the college basketball postseason and its single-elimination format so exciting. But the Wildcats opened as a favorite of 8 1/2 points over the Bobcats for a reason. If they take care of business, they will win this game.
Why? Because K-State should be able to overwhelm them with athleticism.
Montana State is a quality Big Sky team that ranks 110th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings system. The Bobcats won 25 games this season and were right there with Eastern Washington as the class of their conference. They also have NCAA Tournament experience, as they were a No. 14 seed a year ago. But they struggle mightily against opponents from power conferences.
The Bobcats played games at Oregon and Arizona early on this season and lost those nonconference contests by a combined total of 51 points. Last season, they lost to Texas Tech 97-62 in the NCAA Tournament.
K-State should be able to do the same with its lineup of tall, athletic players like Nae’Qwan Tomlin, David N’Guessan and Keyontae Johnson.
The Bobcats are good at getting to the free-throw line, creating turnovers and scoring at the rim, which have been problems for the Wildcats. Their leading scorer is Rae’Quan Battle, who began his college career at Washington. So they might not be a pushover.
Still, the Wildcats are ranked nearly 100 spots higher than the Bobcats in term of overall strength. That is a big difference.
Kentucky and Providence pose challenges in Round of 32
Remember the last time K-State and Kentucky squared off in a battle for Wildcat supremacy in the NCAA Tournament?
Most K-State fans do. Barry Brown led the Wildcats to a memorable victory in the 2018 Sweet 16. A rematch, of sorts, would once again likely give us an exciting game to watch.
Kentucky (28) and K-State (24) are evenly matched, per Pomeroy, and they both play into each other’s weaknesses. Kentucky is the nation’s second-best team when it comes to offensive rebounds. It also has one of the best players in the college game — senior forward Oscar Tshiebwe.
Teams that grab offensive rebounds and score at the rim have found success against K-State this season.
But No. 6 seed Kentucky does not create many turnovers on defense, which is a good omen for Jerome Tang’s team. Kentucky is also vulnerable on defense, especially when Tshiebwe is forced into open space. Perhaps Tomlin could have a big game against him.
Kentucky also tends to run hot and cold. It has quality wins on its resume, such as Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M. But it also lost to dismal teams like Georgia and South Carolina. Kentucky will have a crowd advantage in Greensboro, but the building wouldn’t belong to Big Blue Nation in a second-round game.
Of course, Kentucky will have to beat No. 11 seed Providence to give us another battle of the Wildcats. That will be no easy task.
Providence in only a 3 1/2-point underdog in that game. The Friars ended the season with a thud, losing four of their final five games. But they also own impressive wins over Creighton, Connecticut and Marquette. Ed Cooley is a veteran coach who will have his team ready against John Calipari.
K-State would face many of the same matchup problems against Providence that it would Kentucky. The Friars rank 20th nationally in offensive efficiency and are excellent at grabbing offensive rebounds behind leading scorer Bryce Hopkins.
Providence does not create many turnovers on defense, though.
Marquette would be tough to beat in Sweet 16
Let’s say K-State reaches the Sweet 16 and gets a date with No. 2 seed Marquette in Madison Square Garden.
That would be a difficult game for the Wildcats. Few teams, if any, are hotter than the Golden Eagles right now. Shaka Smart led Marquette to nine straight victories at the end of the season, including three victories at MSG to claim a Big East Tournament championship.
The Golden Eagles create turnovers on defense like crazy (22.8% of the time) and score almost at will at the rim (58.8% from two-point range). They are a better version of teams like West Virginia and TCU, which both just convincingly beat K-State.
From afar, it seems like K-State fans need to be cheering hard against Marquette in the opening rounds. The Wildcats would much rather play Michigan State, USC or Vermont.
Purdue, Tennessee, Duke could loom in Elite Eight
If the Wildcats make it this far then it has been an absolutely fabulous season no matter what happens in the regional final.
K-State would be playing with house money in that scenario.
Opponents like No. 1 seed Purdue, No. 4 Tennessee or No. 5 Duke would pose interesting matchup problems.
Purdue is one of the biggest teams in all of college basketball behind center Zach Edey. The Boilermakers play with great balance and don’t have many weaknesses. But they don’t shoot it well from three-point range or create turnovers, which good be good omens in a potential matchup with K-State.
Tennessee is all about defense. Duke is red hot at the moment, having won nine straight games to close out the season. There is also a possibility a wild card like Florida Atlantic or Memphis advances to this stage.
This story was originally published March 12, 2023 at 9:53 PM with the headline "Breaking down the good and bad of Kansas State’s bracket path for NCAA Tournament."