Kansas State at West Virginia could have major Big 12 Tournament seed implications

THE DETAILS

When: 1 p.m. Saturday

Where: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, West Virginia

TV: ESPN+

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita

Betting line: West Virginia by 4

Over/Under: 150

STARTING LINEUPS

About Kansas State (23-7, 11-6):

The Wildcats are coming off four straight victories. That winning streak has secured many good things for K-State moving forward, such as a high seed at both the Big 12 Tournament and the Big Dance later this month. Jerome Tang has led his team to an 11-6 mark in conference play thanks to a new starting lineup that features Desi Sills as an extra guard and Nae’Qwan Tomlin as the five man. Both of them had electric performances earlier this week in a home victory over Oklahoma. The road has been unkind to K-State this season, though. The Wildcats are only 4-6 in true away games this year.

About West Virginia (17-13, 6-11):

Don’t let the record fool you, the Mountaineers are a quality team. West Virginia is a top 25 team, according to analytical rankings, and a good bet to reach the NCAA Tournament later this month. The Mountaineers are coming off a road victory over Iowa State. When K-State and West Virginia played earlier this season, the Mountaineers led most of the way but the Wildcats found a way to emerge with an overtime victory at Bramlage Coliseum. Erik Stevenson is Bob Huggins’ leading scorer.

Prediction

This is an important game for both teams.

For K-State, a win at West Virginia (or losses from both Baylor and Texas) on Saturday will clinch the No. 2 seed at the Big 12 Tournament. That would be a desirable spot for the Wildcats, as it would put them on the opposite side of the bracket from league champion Kansas. It would also make them a heavy favorite in the quarterfinals against a team that played the night before.

K-State definitely wants the No. 2 or No. 3 seed at the Big 12 Tournament. If the Wildcats drop to the No. 4 seed, which would happen if they lose at West Virginia and both Baylor and Texas win, they will likely end up with a game against dangerous TCU in the quarterfinals. That would also put them on the same side of the bracket as KU.

The road to a Big 12 Tournament trophy will be much easier as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

West Virginia can climb as high as the No. 7 seed at the Big 12 Tournament with a win over K-State and fall to as low as the No. 9 seed with a loss.

Now that we’ve got those scenarios covered, let’s turn our focus to Saturday’s matchup at WVU Coliseum.

It will not be an easy game for the Wildcats. For starters, winning five straight games in Big 12 play has been virtually impossible for anyone this season. Only Baylor and Kansas have been able to do it. When K-State started conference play with four straight victories, it went on the road for its fifth game and lost 82-68 against TCU.

West Virginia is capable of handing K-State a similar loss. Bob Huggins’ team does two things that typically give the Wildcats fits. For starters, the Mountaineers grab offensive rebounds on 34.1% of their possessions, which could pose a problem for K-State and its small starting lineup. They also are good at creating turnovers on defense and getting to the free-throw line on offense.

K-State ranks 273rd nationally in turnovers, 216th in offensive rebounds allowed and 294th in defensive free-throw rate.

On paper, this looks like a bad matchup for the Wildcats, especially on the road.

Jerome Tang’s team could counter all that with hot shooting performances from Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. Or Nowell could have one of his 10 assists, zero turnovers games. Both could happen. The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, after all.

But there is a reason why West Virginia is favored by more than one possession in this game.

West Virginia 81, K-State 71

Last game prediction: K-State 73, Oklahoma 69 (Actual: K-State 85, Oklahoma 69).

Season record: 21-9.

Season record against the spread: 15-15.

This story was originally published March 3, 2023 at 1:38 PM with the headline "Kansas State at West Virginia could have major Big 12 Tournament seed implications."

Kellis Robinett

The Wichita Eagle

Kellis Robinett covers Kansas State athletics for The Wichita Eagle and The Kansas City Star. A winner of more than a dozen national writing awards, he lives in Manhattan with his wife and four children.