ESPN analyst sees bright future for KSU hoops ... if Bruce Weber makes these changes
It’s been a long and frustrating season for the Kansas State men’s basketball team, but a glimmer of hope has appeared as Bruce Weber and his young roster near the end of a rebuilding year together.
K-State has bounced back from a 13-game losing streak to win consecutive Big 12 games and is currently riding high after stunning No. 7 Oklahoma on Tuesday.
All signs point to Weber returning for his 10th season as coach in Manhattan, so now seems like a good time to look ahead and ask a few big-picture questions about the program’s trajectory.
What are realistic expectations for next year? How many wins will Weber need in a prove-it season to earn a contract extension beyond 2023? And what can freshmen like Nijel Pack, Selton Miguel and Davion Bradford accomplish if they stay together for the long haul?
ESPN college basketball analyst Fran Fraschilla, the foremost expert on Big 12 hoops, agreed to share his thoughts on those topics and more in a wide-ranging interview earlier this week.
For starters, he remains bullish on both Weber and K-State, despite their well-documented struggles over the past two seasons.
“It’s been a very difficult year, but I do see growth,” Fraschilla said. “The thing that impressed me most in their last two wins was vintage Bruce Weber defense. Just looking at the defensive clips, I would have said this looks like 2019. That’s how good the defense has been the last two games -- absolutely rock solid. If that can carry over, which it probably will because that has always been Coach Weber’s calling card, they can get themselves back into contention for the postseason next year.”
But he also thinks the Wildcats need to make a few adjustments before they can follow in the footsteps of Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade, who reached the Elite Eight in 2018 and shared a Big 12 championship with Texas Tech in 2019.
He broke them down into three bullet-point items:
- Reduce turnovers
- Improve three-point shooting
- Find an impact transfer.
“They have to add more pieces,” Fraschilla said. “They probably need to look on the transfer market to get a little older, a little quicker. Because what has been proven in college basketball the last few years is if you’re not getting stud, five-star players then you better get old quickly, because people are not going to have the patience to watch your young guys.”
“It’s been a perfect storm of having seven NCAA quality teams ahead of them this year when they’re young. His coaching is the same as when he won two Big 12 titles. They’re just too young. Other teams are going to be in the portal adding guys. He needs to be proactive in the same way.”
K-State (7-18, 3-13 Big 12) is one of the youngest teams in college basketball this season. Mike McGuirl is the team’s only senior, and the starting lineup regularly features three freshmen. Only Kentucky has logged more freshman starts than the Wildcats this year.
But many of K-State’s young players have shown promise. Nijel Pack (12.1 points, 3.9 assists, 3.7 rebounds) has produced better numbers than every freshman since Marcus Foster. Davion Bradford (7.3 points, 4.3 rebounds) is already the best true post player Weber has recruited in Manhattan. And Miguel (7.2 points, 2.8 rebounds) is starting to look like a defensive stopper.
Opposing coaches Bob Huggins and Mike Boynton have both called them the best group of freshmen in the Big 12.
If Mike McGuirl returns as a “super senior” and K-State’s sophomore class of Antonio Gordon, Montavious Murphy and DaJuan Gordon can stay healthy, Weber will have the makings of a nice nucleus to build around.
Fraschilla had something to say about all of them.
On Pack: “He’s definitely on my All Freshman Team. Nijel is on his way to being one of the better point guards in this league fairly quickly.”
On Bradford: “He is one of the real surprises in the Big 12 this year. I would say he’s on the same pace, or better, than David McCormack at Kansas. He’s the offensive version of Kevin Samuel down at TCU.”
On Miguel: “Really impressed with his energy, his enthusiasm, his defensive toughness. I think he’s going to be a lockdown defender. There’s potential there for him to be an above average wing player in the Big 12. His outside shooting is the one thing he really needs to hone in on.”
On McGuirl: “It would definitely help if he came back. I don’t think he’s going to be Devonte’ Graham next year, but he can certainly be one of the better guards in the league. If I were counseling Mike, I would say you can probably go make $3,000 a month playing in Belgium or Denmark right now or you can come back to K-State and really leave your mark.”
On DaJuan Gordon: “He needs to improve his outside shooting, but even if that doesn’t happen he’s got a future as a tough, scrappy, solid player.”
On Murphy: “I like Monty a lot. He can be a very effective Big 12 player. He would be a very good piece to the Wildcat puzzle if he’s healthy.”
On Antonio Gordon: “I’ve always liked his promise. The game he played against Baylor shows you what he’s capable of.”
That doesn’t mean K-State will be a finished product next season. Far from it. Retaining key players during the offseason will be of the utmost importance. Even then, if the Wildcats are unable to sustain their recent play on defense and aren’t able to improve on offense, they could easily end up with another losing record.
Fraschilla thinks there is one thing they can all improve.
“They absolutely have to get better at three-point shooting,” Fraschilla said. “You can’t shoot 29% as a team next year. Get that up to 35% and you’re talking about a handful more wins right off the bat.”
Results will decide Weber’s future. Fans will likely demand a return to the NCAA Tournament, or something close to it, next season. If the Wildcats make that much improvement, athletic director Gene Taylor will have to consider extending Weber’s contract, which is set to expire after the 2023 season. Otherwise, it will probably be time for a change.
For now, though, there’s hope that better days could be on the horizon.
“Next year, they could finish in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, somewhere in that four to seven range, and contend for the postseason,” Fraschilla said. “The toughest thing about this league right now is that everybody has gotten older than them quicker. They need to close that gap.”
This story was originally published February 26, 2021 at 11:31 AM with the headline "ESPN analyst sees bright future for KSU hoops ... if Bruce Weber makes these changes."