K-State Q&A: Schedule outrage, way-too-early football predictions and Bruce Weber
The Kansas State football team will once again open the Big 12 portion of its schedule on the road next season.
When the Wildcats travel to Oklahoma State on Sept. 25 it will mark the third straight year they have started league play on the road. If you want to go back a little further, it will mark the ninth time in 10 years they have done so. The scheduling quirk has become a lightning-rod topic in Manhattan. Some are outraged by it. Some shrug in disbelief when it keeps happening. Some find it hilarious. And others, like myself, think it’s not worth complaining about in the slightest.
OK, fine. I will admit it’s probably worth complaining about a teeny tiny bit, like a teacher calling on students to present a book report in alphabetical order. If you’re last name is Aaron, I can see how every once in a while you might prefer to switch places with your old pal Zoolander. But both students still have to present a book report at some point. Does it really matter when?
That is how I look at this debate. Are there disadvantages to opening Big 12 play on the road against Oklahoma State instead of starting at home against Kansas? Perhaps. Early momentum, the outraged fans say! But I don’t buy it. Any disadvantage that comes with playing an early road game will eventually be offset by playing a late home game.
The last time K-State won a Big 12 championship, it opened Big 12 play with the most difficult possible assignment — at Oklahoma. Guess what? Winning that challenging game set a positive tone for the remainder of the year.
Last season, K-State began conference play 4-0 and then lost its final five games. Early momentum didn’t mean squat. A 4-0 start just meant the Wildcats played OU and TCU at the perfect time and also beat Texas Tech and Kansas at home. It didn’t help them compete against a back-loaded schedule. Maybe having some of those easy games late wouldn’t have been so bad after all?
The beauty of Big 12 scheduling is that every team’s slate is essentially the same. Everybody plays nine games against the same opponents. Some teams play four road games. Other teams play five road games. They rotate every year. It’s the fairest setup you can find in any of the power conferences.
For every team that complains about starting on the road too often, there’s another team that complains about not finishing at home often enough.
One person in my Twitter mentions pointed out to me that he isn’t actually mad about K-State’s unique scheduling quirk at the start of Big 12 play, but fans have been complaining about it for so long there’s no way to stop now. It’s their thing.
You know what, I can respect that.
I do enjoy the faux outrage about K-State’s football schedule, but I also steadfastly believe it is not worth actually getting worked up about.
Now, let’s dive into your questions. Thanks, as always, for providing them.
E-MAIL QUESTION: Hey there, Kellis. I hope you will consider using this in your next K-State Q&A. You have been on a mini hot streak with your basketball predictions lately. Let’s see if that carries over to football picks. Now that the 2021 schedule is out, what is your prediction for next season? - Andrew B.
Bless you for providing me with another opportunity to point out my basketball predictions have been right on the money lately. I worried I was getting too bold when I predicted K-State to stay within single digits against Texas, but the Wildcats made me look smart and nearly won that game.
It’s a nice change from earlier in the season when I scoffed at the notion that Baylor would beat K-State by more than 21 at Bramlage Coliseum ... and the Bears went easy on the Wildcats and still won by 31.
Might as well keep shooting while I’m hot.
Here are my quick, dirty projections for the 2021 football season.
Stanford: Win. Truth be told, I’m not properly prepared to pick this game. I only know a little bit about Stanford and there are also some big question marks surrounding K-State right now. Odds are this will be a close game, especially on a neutral field. When in doubt, pander to the audience and pick the Wildcats. If Skylar Thompson plays well and K-State’s defensive transfers are as good as advertised, they will probably win.
Southern Illinois: Win. Nobody beats FCS teams like Chris Klieman beats FCS teams.
Nevada: Win. This is actually a pretty good Mountain West team. Plus, my brother lives in Reno, and I’m sure that’s worth a few points somehow. Still, this is a game K-State should win without much drama in Week 3.
Oklahoma State: Loss. Much like Stanford, this game is a bit of a toss up. But the Cowboys are better than the Cardinal. Even after losing some of their best playmakers, they bring back an experienced quarterback and enough overall talent to be favored here.
Oklahoma: Loss. Maybe it’s silly to pick against Klieman and Thompson vs. the Sooners. They are like kryptonite for Oklahoma. Have you heard Klieman has never lost to Lincoln Riley? Still, the Sooners will be LOADED next year.
Iowa State: Loss. The Cyclones are in run-it-back mode, and they beat the Wildcats 45-0 last season.
Texas Tech: Win. Unless Patrick Mahomes regains some eligibility, give me K-State in Lubbock.
TCU: Loss. The Horned Frogs came on strong late last season and won five of their final six games. Gary Patterson’s teams have been hard to project lately, so I reserve the right to change my mind here. For now, though, I like the Frogs in a close one.
Kansas: Win. Do I really need to explain my reasoning?
West Virginia: Win. Neal Brown has owned Klieman since they entered the Big 12 together two years ago, but something tells me Thompson (who has also never beaten West Virginia) gets the job done this time.
Baylor: Win. The Bears have some work to do under new coach Dave Aranda, and I don’t see them making enough progress to beat the Wildcats next season.
Texas: Loss. As long as Bijan Robinson starts at running back, Texas will win most of its games next season, including the regular-season finale against K-State.
Add it all up and my way-too-early projection comes in at 7-5 (4-5 Big 12).
I haven’t personally witnessed a K-State football player practice or play since the 2020 season ended, so I can’t tell you for sure how they “look” right now.
But I can tell you there is buzz surrounding the following young players: T.J. Smith, Austin Moore, Cooper Beebe, Taylor Poitier, Konner Fox, Will Swanson and Felix Anudike.
I also expect Deuce Vaughn and Will Howard to improve. But Vaughn was already amazing and Howard is going to be playing behind Thompson. So I feel like they don’t count.
Let’s pump the brakes for a minute here.
Byron Pringle had one catch for 3 yards to go along with three kickoff returns for 87 yards. He wasn’t anywhere close to being the best player on his team in the Super Bowl.
As bad as his final numbers looked, I think Patrick Mahomes was still the KC MVP. Some of the throws he made with the entire Tampa Bay defense chasing here were incredible. A lesser quarterback would have been sacked 15 times.
But I digress.
Pringle was pretty far down the list of best Chiefs players last week. That doesn’t mean he isn’t having one heck of a pro career in Kansas City, though.
He has carved out the ideal role for a former K-State receiver in the NFL. He catches the occasional pass, blocks well on the perimeter and is a star on special teams.
Bill Snyder would be proud.
I’m hesitant to say it will be NCAA Tournament or bust next season for Weber, but that’s probably a fair ballpark requirement.
You would think K-State would need to be at least a NIT team next season for the Wildcats to start selling any kind of optimism to fans.
Weber’s buyout will drop to $1 million in the spring (it’s currently $2 million), so that should be within the budget. If he doesn’t have the program on a clear upswing in Year 10, I can’t see anyone making a big push to keep him.
Problem is, I’m not sure that is a realistic expectation for next season. The Big 12 is still going to be really good and wins aren’t going to be easy to come by.
Nijel Pack is a stud. Davion Bradford is the future of the front court. But are there enough other pieces?
Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade barely made it to the NCAA Tournament as sophomores. Heck, they were the final at-large team selected and forced me to get on an early morning flight to Dayton, Ohio close to 24 hours after the Selection Show to cover them in the First Fourt.
And that team had Wesley Iwundu and D.J. Johnson leading the way.
This group won’t have a future NBA player to help them, unless Weber somehow lands a dynamite transfer. It’s possible they won’t need one. But they will need to make a big jump. They are a long way from the NCAA Tournament right now.
I’m going to have to disagree with your winless projection.
The Wildcats have flipped a switch and are now playing with much more defensive energy and shooting the ball better than they were earlier in the season. They are legitimately improving.
I think they will win at least once more, maybe even on Saturday at Oklahoma State. TCU or (crosses fingers) Iowa State seems more likely, but I could see them beating the Cowboys, too.
In any case, my current belief is that Bruce Weber will return as coach next season. I’m not as confident about that as Gene Taylor keeps saying he is, but that’s the way I’m leaning right now.
Not saying that is the right decision or the wrong decision. I’m just saying I think he will be back.
But even if Weber does return he won’t be getting a contract extension. Come on now.
This is a fun question.
You could make a case for Cartier Diarra, Xavier Sneed and Makol Mawien.
Diarra would serve as the “bucket getter” that Bruce Weber has said many times that this team lacks. But he wouldn’t be a good influence in the locker room.
Sneed would give the Wildcats another scorer and the defensive versatility to play the three or the four. And maybe he could get back to throwing down lob dunks with Nijel Pack taking some pressure off him on the perimeter.
Mawien would be a huge upgrade on defense, but a liability on offense.
There are no negatives with Sneed, so I’m taking X.
This story was originally published February 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "K-State Q&A: Schedule outrage, way-too-early football predictions and Bruce Weber."