K-State Q&A: What will it take for Wildcats to reach NIT? Who will start next season?
It’s time for another K-State Q&A.
For the first time in a few weeks, I don’t have any cool thoughts of my own to use as a lead in to your questions so I’m not going to force anything here. But we do have lots of great questions to cover, so let’s dive right in. Thanks, as always, for your participation.
You’re right, there are many winnable games left on Kansas State’s basketball schedule.
That’s why it was always laughable to me that some of the most pessimistic fans out there tossed around the possibility of a winless conference season like it might actually happen.
Oklahoma State and Iowa State are down. Texas, TCU and Oklahoma are nothing special. Texas Tech and West Virginia are both good, but far from invincible. Outside of Baylor and Kansas, the Big 12 is not loaded with basketball heavyweights.
Melvin Watkins once guided a Texas A&M roster that included future NBA players Antoine Wright and Acie Law to an 0-16 Big 12 record, but even he might have been able to coach a team to at least one conference victory this season.
K-State’s next two games (at No. 12 West Virginia and then home vs. No. 1 Baylor) will be no walk in the park, but after that the schedule does get rather friendly. The Wildcats still get to play Iowa State and Oklahoma State twice, along with TCU and Texas once.
It’s not hard to see the Wildcats (9-11, 2-5 Big 12) winning a handful more conference games. Ken Pomeroy projects them to finish 6-12.
By no means is this a great team. Bruce Weber probably outkicked his coverage when he called it a “good team” earlier this week. But there is no denying that K-State is on a bit of an upswing. It has won back-to-back home games against NCAA Tournament contenders and also pushed red hot Alabama to the final seconds on the road. This team is far from a dumpster fire and could finish the year with a few exciting victories.
But … you knew there was a but coming … the NIT is probably out of reach.
One of the common misconceptions about the NIT is that it is easy for any power-conference team with a pulse to qualify for it. That might have been the case 20 years ago when any team with name recognition and a winning record could receive an invitation simply by raising its hand. But it’s now more difficult than that, because much of the 32-team field is populated by teams that earn automatic entry as a regular-season conference champion.
In order to make the NIT as an at-large selection these days, a team usually needs to be mentioned somewhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble. Spoiler alert: K-State is not going to do that.
The NIT no longer has a rule that requires teams to have a .500 or better record to play in the tournament, which is good for K-State. But no team has ever been invited to the NIT with a losing record, which is bad for K-State.
Both Texas and Butler made the NIT field last season with records of 16-16, so if the Wildcats really want to play for a NIT berth the rest of the way they will need to aim for seven more victories. That would leave them at 16-15 and 9-9 as they enter the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
There’s a decent chance that would be enough.
Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament ... As an at-large selection???!!!
Now I know how Jim Mora felt when someone asked him about the NFL playoffs back in the day.
The only realistic path I see for K-State to reach the NCAA Tournament (and I don’t think it’s very realistic, to be clear) is for the Wildcats to get all kinds of hot in Kansas City and win the Big 12 Tournament.
Outside of that, K-State is going to need to go on an unprecedented winning streak.
As noted above, I feel like the Wildcats need to close out the regular season 7-4 to have a shot at the NIT. Bump that up to 8-3 or 9-2 and add on a few wins in Kansas City and then, maybe, K-State will be in the mix for the Big Dance.
I suppose consecutive victories over West Virginia and Baylor could change the Wildcats’ outlook. That would give them some very nice wins. Even then, though, their margin for error the rest of the way would be razor thin with an overall record of 11-11.
It’s not going to happen.
K-State has likely already played its way out of the postseason, but there are other carrots for Bruce Weber to dangle in front of his players. For starters, the Wildcats can still play spoiler to a number of teams down the stretch.
For example, they host Kansas on Feb. 29 in what figures to be a fiercely contested game in front of a venomous crowd. Winning that game, and perhaps preventing KU from catching Baylor in the Big 12 championship race, would make K-State fans everywhere smile.
K-State also gets to play No. 1 Baylor twice the rest of the way. It will have opportunities for some memorable victories. It didn’t seem like a huge deal when the Wildcats beat No. 1 Oklahoma in 2016 with Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes and Dean Wade as freshmen, but that win helped propel them to genuinely great things over the next three years.
The most important thing left to do this year is to build momentum toward next season. There are plenty of ways the Wildcats can do that, with or without reaching the postseason.
Bruce Weber has already said that UTEP transfer Kaosi Ezeagu is a welcome addition to K-State basketball practice.
He played with so much energy on the defensive end at one point last week that he made one of K-State’s other bigs quit the practice session out of frustration, according to Weber. That’s not saying much for the Wildcats’ active front court, but it shows that Ezeagu has some potential.
Still, I would suggest tempering your expectations with Ezeagu.
I think he is better than most of K-State’s current big men. He would probably be behind Levi Stockard and ahead of Nigel Shadd and James Love if he could take the court right now. But he is also a bit of a project recruit.
A 6-foot-10 forward from Canada, Ezeagu averaged 3.2 points and 3.4 rebounds per game as a freshman at UTEP. He has some finishing ability around the rim, but he is best known for his defense.
K-State was the only team from a major conference that recruited him as a transfer, but very few schools had the roster space to accommodate him in the middle of the season. He might have gotten more looks had he entered the transfer portal during the spring.
The Wildcats wanted another big man on their roster, and Ezeagu is probably better than anyone they could have landed late after the season ends. In that respect, he’s a good addition for Bruce Weber. But we’ll have to wait and see how much Ezeagu accomplishes in a K-State uniform.
This is usually a question that Weber wouldn’t touch and could only get answered by your friendly neighborhood beat writer in his weekly mailbag, but I get the feeling Weber might be willing to discuss K-State’s starting lineup for the 2020-21 season right now.
In a sign of the times, Weber spent half his weekly news conference talking about players that aren’t even on the active roster. Granted, it was his first time talking about the addition of Ezeagu, and Selton Miguel’s team was coming off a huge high school win. But you can tell that Weber wishes the top-25 recruiting class he signed in November was already on campus.
Rivals just bumped it up to No. 19.
For now, it’s hard to accurately project what K-State’s best lineup will be next season.
Incoming freshmen like Nijel Pack, Luke Kasubke and Miguel all bring more upside than returners like David Sloan and Mike McGuirl. But Weber tends to value experience over young talent, unless you’re talking about a mistake-prone Cartier Diarra.
Much like ordering a burger at So Long Saloon, Weber will have plenty of delectable options to choose from next year. The starting five will probably evolve as the season goes along.
Here’s my way-to-early guess for the first game:
David Sloan, DaJuan Gordon, Mike McGuirl, Montavious Murphy, Levi Stockard.
Here’s my way-to-early guess for the final game:
Nijel Pack, DaJuan Gordon, Selton Miguel, Montavious Murphy, Davion Bradford.
One of the reasons I prefer writing about college sports more than pro sports is there aren’t enough games for me to lose enthusiasm about the team I cover.
Few things sound worse to me than watching a pro baseball team lose 100 games in a single season. Talk about a drag. Attending 162 games in a year seems like a chore, let alone writing about 100 losses along the way. No thank you.
The NBA would offer some excitement, as certain losing teams hilariously tank in hopes of improving their draft stock. But even then, 82 games is too many to sustain my interest. I can’t even turn on the NBA until after the first round of the playoffs.
Games have more meaning in college sports. Every football team plays 12 games. Every basketball team plays 31 games. For the most part, they are all meaningful.
Some are obviously easier to get excited about than others. But there’s something exciting to write about from every game that K-State plays. It’s my job as a sports writer to find it. Sometimes a losing team is more exciting to cover than a winning team. Not usually, but sometimes.
I have been fortunate during my time on the K-State beat. The Wildcats have never finished last in the Big 12 in football or men’s basketball under my watch. They haven’t even come close.
I’ve covered Frank Martin and Bruce Weber in seven different NCAA Tournaments. I’ve covered Bill Snyder and Chris Klieman in nine different bowl games.
Have there been some boring games over the years? Sure. There have been some exciting ones, too. The Wildcats have provided me with a good mix.
To answer the second part of your question: There are definitely times that a story keeps me up at night. That’s usually a good sign that I’m writing about something interesting and have a story that my readers are going to enjoy once I figure out how to assemble it.
There’s no special trick to powering through what you might call “writer’s block.” Sometimes I step away from a story for a little bit and try to come back to it with a fresh point of view. Maybe I go for a run and come back inspired. But most of the time I just start writing and everything works out.
One thing I’ve learned over the years about sports writing is that story ideas and reporting seem to matter more than putting words together like Ernest Hemingway. If you have good material, people are going to read it. If you are writing about paint drying, no amount of clever writing is going to make it seem exciting.
I like the idea of playing a throwback-style game at Ahearn Fieldhouse.
The old building has tons of history and it could be a fun atmosphere for an otherwise forgettable exhibition game or nonconference game.
But I also think it would be too difficult to pull off. There’s not enough parking around the old arena to accommodate basketball fans, and there’s no air conditioning inside the venue. There’s a reason K-State is working to build the volleyball team a new home.
I have no idea what the complete list looks like, but I can tell you that Jordy Nelson, Darren Sproles, Nick Leckey, Quincy Morgan, Mark Simoneau and Martin Gramatica were all members of teams that won the Super Bowl.
At least one more will be added to the list on Sunday when Bryon Pringle (Chiefs) goes up against Elijah Lee and D.J. Reed (49ers).
Point guard: Trae Young, Oklahoma.
Shooting guard: Klay Thompson, Washington State.
Small forward: Paul Pierce, Kansas.
Power forward: Blake Griffin, Oklahoma.
Center: Joel Embiid, Kansas.
Sixth man: Anton Reese, Georgia State.
Coach: Roy Williams, Kansas.
Note: An earlier version of this team included Kevin Durant, but a reader pointed out that K-State defeated Texas in Austin during Durant’s lone season of college basketball. So, as much as I wish Durant was on this team, he’s not eligible. I bumped Blake Griffin into the starting five and promoted Anton Reese to the bench. Who is Reese? Well, he holds the all-time scoring record of any opponent at Bramlage Coliseum with 38 points.
This story was originally published January 31, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "K-State Q&A: What will it take for Wildcats to reach NIT? Who will start next season?."