College football betting odds, expert picks for Big 12 championship game and more
The regular season is over, but that doesn’t mean we are done betting on college football.
Kansas, K-State and Missouri aren’t playing this weekend, so our focus will turn elsewhere. Good thing we have a fun lineup of conference championship games to tide us over before we can go back to analyzing the Tigers and Wildcats during bowl season.
We’ve had a good run over the past three seasons since Kansas sports betting became legal. Let’s see if we can find some more winners.
Iowa State (+2) vs. Arizona State
Let’s begin this week’s betting column by analyzing the Big 12 championship game.
Under normal circumstances, I would bet on the Sun Devils to complete their journey from worst to first in the Big 12.
They have won five straight games and turned some heads with recent victories over Kansas State and BYU. We all owe Arizona State an apology for rating them so low back in the preseason.
But these are not normal circumstances. The Sun Devils lost star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson to an injury last week and he will not play against the Cyclones when they meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. That gives me pause about this matchup. He is a major loss. The last time the Sun Devils were missing one of their star players (quarterback Sam Leavitt) they inexplicably lost at Cincinnati.
Now, maybe missing a receiver won’t matter all that much in this game. Iowa State hasn’t looked stellar during the second half of the season, and it reached the conference championship game with several narrow wins.
They also don’t defend the run well. The Cyclones are allowing teams to rush for an average of five yards per attempt. It’s possible that Arizona State can simply give the ball to running back Cam Skattebo and win this game on the ground.
But I thought K-State would run all over Iowa State last weekend at Jack Trice Stadium, and that didn’t happen. The Cyclones limited the Wildcats to 144 rushing yards.
If Skattebo runs wild on Saturday then I expect Arizona State to win. But Iowa State may be able to focus extra attention on stopping the run without Tyson on the field.
Matt Campbell has also been in this situation before, whereas it is brand new for Kenny Dillingham.
Arizona State is the better team. But Iowa State has a healthier roster and a more experienced coach.
I lean Sun Devils here, but not enough to make it one of my favorite bets.
My favorite bets
Texas (-2.5) vs. Georgia: Here’s a stat that surprised me. Georgia, a team that ranks No. 5 in the country and has won 10 games, has been outscored in the first quarter this season. The Bulldogs haven’t led at the end of the first quarter in any of their past four games. Even lowly Massachusetts managed a 7-7 tie against the Bulldogs two weeks ago. Texas tends to start fast and has won the first quarter in its past five games. To be fair, Georgia started fast against Texas when they played in the regular season. But I think the Longhorns will take an early lead in the rematch. Pick: Texas to win first quarter.
Clemson (+1.5) vs. SMU: I’m surprised the spread is so low in this game. The Tigers are lucky to be in the ACC championship and are only here because Syracuse pulled off a stunning upset against Miami last weekend. Clemson is the type of team that beats up on bad opponents and loses to strong opponents. SMU is definitely a strong team. Pick: SMU.
Tulane (-4.5) at Army: If you can beat Navy 35-0 on the road, you can probably also beat Army on the road. That is my logic for backing Tulane in the AAC championship game. The Green Wave pulverized Navy and its triple-option attack a few weeks ago. Notre Dame obliterated both of these teams. Tulane should be able to do the same, so long as coach Jon Sumrall isn’t too distracted by the possibility of other jobs. Pick: Tulane.
UNLV (+3.5) at Boise State: Let’s not over think this one. The Broncos have won 10 straight games and they have beaten UNLV twice in the past calendar year, including 44-20 in the Mountain West championship game last season. Pick: Boise State.
Oregon (-2.5) vs. Penn State: The Nittany Lions don’t tend to win the biggest games on their schedule. Maybe things will be different for them against Oregon, as opposed to Ohio State or Michigan, but I doubt it. The Ducks have been dominant all season and their offense will put up points inside a dome. The over (50.5) might be worth a look. Pick: Oregon.
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 41-29 (+9.6 units)
This story was originally published December 5, 2024 at 1:28 PM with the headline "College football betting odds, expert picks for Big 12 championship game and more."