College football odds, picks and predictions for Kansas, K-State and more in Week 5
Let’s see if we can keep finding winners in the topsy-turvy world of college football.
TCU (+2) at Kansas
Both of these teams are in a free fall.
Nothing has gone right for the Horney Frogs since they blew a 17-point lead against UCF. But things have been even worse for Kansas, which somehow owns a 1-3 record despite leading in the second half of all four of its games. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is one of the best pure passers in the Big 12. Devin Neal may be the best running back in the league. But none of that has translated into many wins for either side.
This would normally feel like a good time to buy low on the Jayhawks. But this isn’t even a true home game for them. It would be appropriate for this spread to drop to a pick ‘em by kickoff.
Oklahoma State (+4.5) at Kansas State
The Wildcats have struggled at times to handle success under Chris Klieman. That was once again evidenced by last week’s 38-9 loss at BYU when they were favored to win the game by a touchdown. But they tend to play much better when they are coming off a loss and outsiders are doubting them.
K-State hasn’t lost consecutive games in three years. In fact, the Wildcats have won nine straight games when coming off a loss. And they have covered this number in all nine of them.
I expect that trend to continue on Saturday at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
But before you go betting the farm on K-State, it’s worth noting that Mike Gundy is one of the nation’s most profitable coaches when his team is an underdog. Both teams will enter this game with plenty to prove. Oklahoma State can’t stop the run. K-State has been weak against the pass. This game could be interesting.
My favorite bets
BYU (+3) at Baylor: At first glance, this may seem like the right time to back the Cougars. After all, they are off to a 4-0 start and just obliterated Kansas State. Meanwhile, Baylor couldn’t defend a Hail Mary and lost to Colorado. But the more you analyze this matchup, the more obvious it becomes that the Bears have some advantages here. Unless Baylor gift wraps 31 points in six minutes to BYU the same way K-State did, I expect the Cougars to fall back to earth this week. Pick: Baylor.
Iowa State (-13.5) at Houston: It can be hard to expect the Cyclones to win a game by more than two touchdowns, but I just don’t see Houston putting up much resistance in this game. Pick: Iowa State.
Oklahoma (-1.5) at Auburn: Both of these teams look like underachievers, but Oklahoma has a much higher ceiling than Auburn. The Sooners are probably better off with Michael Hawkins at quarterback, too. The Tigers have already lost twice at home this season to California and Arkansas. Should this game really be so close to a pick em? Pick: Oklahoma.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Texas Tech: This betting line suggests that these teams are equals. That may be true, but Texas Tech has won back-to-back games and will benefit from home-field advantage. Guns up for anything under a field goal. Pick: Texas Tech.
Florida State (+6) at SMU: I’m not sure what was going on with the Mustangs during the first three weeks of the season, but they figured some things out during their bye and throttled TCU 66-42. Meanwhile, Florida State still looks broken even though it won its first game last week against Cal. Pick: SMU.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 10-10 (-1 unit)
Upset pick of the week
Arkansas (+160) at Texas A&M: The Aggies have won their past three games, but they haven’t looked all that good at any point this season. It doesn’t seem like Texas A&M has the personnel required to run Collin Klein’s offense. I won’t be shocked if the Razorbacks go into College Station and pull off an upset. They have already played road games against Auburn and Oklahoma State. The environment will not faze them. Pick: Arkansas.
Season: 2-2 (+1.7 units)
Other lines worth considering
Washington State (+7.5) at Boise State: The Cougars are dreaming of an at-large berth into the expanded playoff thanks to an undefeated start. I don’t think that is in the cards, but they should be able to stay within one score of the Broncos. Lean: Washington State.
Oregon (+26.5) at UCLA: The Bruins covered a smaller number than this just a week ago at LSU. My advice is to wait and see if this number trickles above 27. Oregon is only 1-2 against the spread this season. Lean: UCLA.
Georgia (-2) at Alabama: The Bulldogs survived their yearly scare in SEC play with a 13-12 victory over Kentucky. I expect them to respond with a much stronger effort in their game of the year against Alabama. Lean: Georgia.
Fresno State (+2) at UNLV: What in the world is going on in Las Vegas? Starting quarterback Matthew Sluka is boycotting the rest of the season because he doesn’t think the Rebels have paid him enough NIL money. Wild. The Bulldogs are more than capable of beating a distracted UNLV team. Lean: Fresno State.
Washington (+2.5) at Rutgers: I don’t think I have ever bet money on Rutgers before. There is a first time for everything. Lean: Rutgers.
This story was originally published September 26, 2024 at 7:00 AM with the headline "College football odds, picks and predictions for Kansas, K-State and more in Week 5."