Predictions for KU, K-State, Missouri and the best bets in college football Week 11
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 11:
Baylor (+20.5) at Kansas State
It’s understandable to worry about the Wildcats suffering a letdown this weekend. Baylor is one of the worst teams on their schedule and this game falls between an emotional loss to Texas and a much-anticipated rivalry contest against Kansas.
Talk about a “sandwich spot.”
But there are plenty of reasons to still like K-State here. For starters, the Wildcats tend to bounce back strong after losses under Chris Klieman. They have followed all of their losses with wins dating back to the beginning of last season. They have also been dominant at home this year, going a perfect 5-0 inside Bill Snyder Family Stadium with an average victory margin of 33.2 points. Baylor is also really bad. Its only two Big 12 victories came by tiny margins against UCF and Cincinnati.
Even though this is a big number, the Wildcats could cover it with another blowout win at home.
Texas Tech (+3.5) at Kansas
Behren Morton may not be as good as starting quarterback Tyler Shough, but he is a massive upgrade over third-string quarterback Jake Strong. The Red Raiders beat TCU 35-28 last week with him throwing for 282 yards and two touchdowns. That could make this a tricky game for the Jayhawks.
But Kansas has also been dominant at home this season, going a perfect 5-0 with wins of at least five points in all of them.
The Jayhawks claimed a statement win last week when they went on the road and beat Iowa State.
One big fear here is that KU may look past Texas Tech to the Sunflower Showdown next week.
Tennessee (-1.5) at Missouri
Part of me wonders if the wrong team is favored here. Both teams have identical 7-2 records and similar profiles.
Missouri lost by 10 to LSU and by nine at Georgia.
Tennessee lost by 13 at Florida and by 14 at Alabama.
Both teams have high-powered offenses and they have beaten everyone else on their schedules. All things being the same, the home team should usually be favored.
Best Bets
Last Week: 4-3
Season Record: 32-34-2
Oklahoma State (-2.5) at UCF: I don’t understand this line ... at all. The only reason to back UCF in this spot is if you expect the Cowboys to suffer a massive letdown after their Bedlam win. While I agree that could be a concern, the Knights don’t seem good enough to take advantage. They are allowing a Big 12 worst 212 rushing yards per game. As long as Mike Gundy remembers to give the ball to Ollie Gordon then Oklahoma State should be fine. Pick: Oklahoma State.
Wyoming (+5.5) at UNLV: Wyoming has been a feisty team this season at home. Not so much on the road. The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 in Laramie and a dreadful 0-3 everywhere else. UNLV is the nation’s most profitable team against the spread at 8-1. And the Rebels will be playing this one at home. Seems like a tough assignment for Wyoming. Pick: UNLV.
Cincinnati (+2.5) at Houston: Betting on the Cougars is always an adventure, but I think we can trust Dana Holgorsen at home against an opponent that has lost seven straight games. Pick: Houston.
New Mexico State (+3.5) at Western Kentucky: We were all set to cash on the Hilltoppers last week until UTEP kicked a field goal in the final minute ... to lose by eight. Unfortunately, the spread was 8.5. Fortunately, New Mexico State will need more than a meaningless field goal to get a backdoor cover this week against Western Kentucky. This feels like the top of the market for the Aggies, who have won five straight. It’s a good time to fade them. Pick: Western Kentucky.
Maryland (-2.5) at Nebraska: Who are the Terrapins to be favored against anyone, let alone a Big Ten team with a winning record? Maryland has lost four straight and completely no-showed last week against Penn State. Meanwhile, Nebraska has won all of its home games against teams not named Michigan. Matt Rhule can get the Huskers to a bowl with a win on Saturday. I think it happens. Pick: Nebraska.
Iowa State (-7.5) at BYU: The Cougars are undefeated at home this season. It won’t come as a major surprise if they win this game, so I like BYU getting points. Lean: BYU.
West Virginia (+13.5) at Oklahoma: It’s worth waiting to see if this line moves up to 14, but I still think there is value on the Mountaineers at this number. The Sooners, who are dealing with key injuries on offense, simply aren’t scoring enough right now to blow out teams on command. They haven’t won by double digits since late September. Pick: West Virginia.
Upset Pick of the Week
Fresno State at San Jose State (-1): Oklahoma State came through for us last week. Can we make it two in a row? That depends on how Fresno State plays on the road against San Jose State. I like the Bulldogs to pull off the minor upset here. San Jose State has won three in a row, but those games came against New Mexico, Utah State and Hawaii. This is a major step up in competition for the Spartans. They won’t move the ball so easily against Fresno State’s defense.
Other lines worth considering
Georgia Tech (+14.5) at Clemson: Both of these teams have been up and down all season. Give me the team catching more than two touchdowns.. Lean: Georgia Tech.
San Diego State (+3.5) at Colorado State: The Aztecs have been a good team to fade all season. They have lost six of their past seven games. Lean: Colorado State.
Duke (+14.5) at North Carolina: I don’t care if Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is out with an injury. This is too many points in a rivalry game. Lean: Duke.
Connecticut (+24.5) at James Madison: Things have spiraled out of control for UConn this season. Meanwhile, James Madison is undefeated. This game could get out of hand. Lean: James Madison.
Auburn (+3) at Arkansas: The Tigers won’t be as surprised as Florida was last week going up against Arkansas and its new offensive coordinator. Lean: Auburn.
This story was originally published November 9, 2023 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Predictions for KU, K-State, Missouri and the best bets in college football Week 11."