Big 12 Power Rankings: Don’t sleep on Kansas, K-State or TCU as league play begins
College football is unpredictable.
Case in point: Many experts labeled Texas Tech as a dangerous team in the Big 12 at the start of this season, but the Red Raiders are off to a 1-3 start and their starting quarterback (Tyler Shough) is out 6-8 weeks with a broken fibula.
The odds of Joey McGuire’s team living up to preseason expectations are slim to none, and it’s not even October yet.
That brings up an important question for the rest of the Big 12. If the Red Raiders are unable to challenge Texas and Oklahoma for a spot in the conference championship game this December, who is? I see three main contenders who could be classified as “dark horse” or “sleeper” teams in the league race.
Kansas, K-State and TCU all seem capable of preventing a Red River rematch at AT&T Stadium.
The Jayhawks are undefeated and 4-0 for the second straight season under Lance Leipold. They have also moved into the top 25. KU will get first crack at Texas this weekend when it travels to Austin. The Longhorns are favored by 17 points, but the Jayhawks have a history of pulling off upsets against mighty Texas.
If it happens again, everyone will have to take KU seriously. The Jayhawks also get to play Oklahoma at home later this season.
K-State suffered an early season loss to Missouri, but the Wildcats bounced back well with a 44-31 victory over UCF. Some of the most daunting games on their schedule no longer look quite so difficult thanks to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both struggling. If the Wildcats can win at least three of their next four games, their road game at Texas on November 4 could have serious Big 12 championship implication.s
And then there is TCU, which many left for dead after it lost to TCU in Week 1. Well, the Horned Frogs have dominated ever since and are starting to regain the swagger that took them all the way to the College Football Playoff a year ago. They get to host Texas in November and then end the regular season at Oklahoma.
Don’t sleep on TCU ... or KU ... or K-State.
That leads us into this week’s Big 12 Power Rankings:
1. Texas (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 38-6 win over Baylor
Next game: Kansas
Analysis: It’s probably time to start thinking about Texas as more than just the favorite to win the Big 12 this season. The Longhorns are beginning to look like contenders in the national championship race. They have already beaten Alabama on the road, and teams like Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State don’t seem untouchable.
2. Oklahoma (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 20-6 win at Cincinnati
Next game: Iowa State
Analysis: The Sooners were somewhat fortunate to win their first trip to Cincinnati for a conference game by two touchdowns. The Bearcats left a lot of points on the field because of turnovers and missed field goals. Still, it was encouraging to see Oklahoma win a game away from home with a strong effort on defense. This team is clearly improved from a year ago and the biggest challenger to Texas.
3. Kansas State (3-1, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 44-31 win over UCF
Next game: at Oklahoma State
Analysis: The Wildcats looked pretty darn good gaining 536 yards and scoring 44 points against the UCF Knights. DJ Giddens had one of the best games in school history for a running back on his way to 293 total yards and four touchdowns. But K-State has room to improve on defense, especially when it comes to preventing big plays.
4. Kansas (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 38-27 win over BYU
Next game: at Texas
Analysis: The Jayhawks have come a long way on defense this season. Lance Leipold’s team was able to beat BYU despite getting out-gained by the Cougars. That’s the beautiful thing about scoring a pair of defensive touchdowns. You don’t have to play perfect football to win. Cobee Bryant’s scoop-and-score in the first quarter should be added to the KU pregame hype video immediately.
5. TCU (3-1, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 34-17 win at SMU
Next game: West Virginia
Analysis: I have an apology to make to the Horned Frogs. I dropped them way too far in these rankings when they opened the season with a loss to Colorado. The Buffaloes turned out to be pretty good. And TCU has looked great in every game since then. The Horned Frogs wiped the floor with rival SMU on Saturday and should be favored in their next three games. They could still have a high ceiling this year.
6. BYU (3-1, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 38-27 loss at Kansas
Next game: Cincinnati
Analysis: Ranking the top five was easy this week. It’s a different story with the bottom nine. Several teams in this group lost over the weekend. And the teams that won did so in ugly fashion against mediocre competition. You could make an argument for many teams right here. But I think BYU is the best of the rest. The Cougars won at Arkansas and then played Kansas tough on the road. Things should get easier for them when they return home and play Cincinnati in their first Big 12 game at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
7. UCF (3-1, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 44-31 loss at Kansas State
Next game: Baylor
Analysis: Gus Malzahn dialed up a handful of beautifully designed plays against K-State, and the Knights led 24-21 early in the third quarter. But UCF didn’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Wildcats for an entire game. This team should pull off an upset or two after it gets John Rhys Plumlee back at quarterback.
8. West Virginia (3-1, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 20-13 win over Texas Tech
Next game: at TCU
Analysis: Neal Brown might not be on the hot seat after all. He has led West Virginia to a 3-1 start, and the Mountaineers have enough winnable games left on the schedule to reach bowl eligibility.
9. Iowa State (2-2, 1-0 Big 12)
Last game: 34-27 win over Oklahoma State
Next game: at Oklahoma
Analysis: After struggling to score points of any kind in their previous games, Iowa State and Oklahoma State combined for 831 yards of offense and 61 points on Saturday. Go figure. Rocco Becht led the Cyclones to a 34-27 victory by throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns. Maybe Matt Campbell’s team isn’t circling the drain just yet.
10. Texas Tech (1-3, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 20-13 loss at West Virginia
Next game: Houston
Analysis: What a nightmare season it has been for the Red Raiders. Not only are they 1-3, but starting quarterback Tyler Shough is out with a broken fibula. Can they even make it to a bowl? Texas Tech has more than enough talent on its roster to win games in this conference. It just isn’t happening right now.
11. Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 34-27 loss at Iowa State
Next game: Kansas State
Analysis: The Cowboys looked much improved with Alan Bowman leading the offense. Maybe Oklahoma State can get something going now that Mike Gundy has stopped rotating between three quarterbacks. The Cowboys need to make the most of their idle week with K-State and KU up next.
12. Cincinnati (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 20-6 loss to Oklahoma
Next game: at BYU
Analysis: The Bearcats didn’t take advantage of their scoring opportunities against Oklahoma. They played well on defense, but it didn’t matter. Note to Cincinnati: You need to score more than six points if you hope to win games in this conference.
13. Houston (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 38-7 win over Sam Houston
Next game: at Texas Tech
Analysis: The next two games will define Houston’s season. If the Cougars can find a way to beat Texas Tech on the road and then protect home field against West Virginia, they will be on a three-game winning streak with Texas on deck. There would be tons of excitement for that game under those circumstances. But few will care about it if Houston starts 0-3 in conference play.
14. Baylor (1-3, 0-1 Big 12)
Last game: 38-6 loss to Texas
Next game: at UCF
Analysis: It’s going to be a long season for Dave Aranda and the Bears.
This story was originally published September 26, 2023 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Big 12 Power Rankings: Don’t sleep on Kansas, K-State or TCU as league play begins."