Will the Big 12 remain a power conference after adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF?
Near the end of Kansas State’s convincing victory over Stanford last week, the purple-clad crowd inside AT&T Stadium spontaneously broke out a new chant that likely served as a cathartic release for everyone involved.
Big 12 Football! Clap-clap-clap-clap-clap. Big 12 Football!
After weeks of uncertainty about the future of their conference, K-State fans had something to brag about following a 24-7 win against a respected Pac-12 opponent ... and they celebrated by showing pride in their league as if they were in the SEC.
So what if Oklahoma and Texas are leaving for the SEC? Who cares if the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 excluded the Big 12 from their alliance? K-State just dominated against a power-conference team and the Big 12 has an expansion plan. Bob Bowlsby is expected to formally invite BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF to join the league by the end of the week.
Big 12 Football! Clap-clap-clap-clap-clap. Big 12 Football!
How long will those good vibes last?
Good question. The Big 12 remains at a crossroads.
A conference that initially brought 12 powerful neighboring schools together from the old Big Eight and Southwest conferences has been crippled by greed. Charter members Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska and Texas A&M left a decade ago. Oklahoma and Texas will soon depart, as well. And now a rebirth involving four new schools is on the horizon.
Some are excited about the Big 12’s future potential. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF all bring new large media markets to the conference and are capable of playing quality football. They are also a better combination than Oklahoma and Texas on the hardwood, which means the conference is about to get even stronger in men’s hoops. Odds are also good that the Big 12 will retain its autonomy status.
But not everyone is thrilled. Some are bummed, because there’s no real way to replace flagship members like Oklahoma and Texas. The Big 12’s eight remaining schools are all going to make a lot less money moving forward, potentially only half what they’re accustomed to.
No one knows exactly what to expect. It’s hard to say what the future holds.
At its best, the Big 12 produced three national champions in football, two in men’s basketball, four in women’s basketball and two in baseball. It also made more money for its schools than any league other than the Big Ten and SEC. It was without a doubt one of the nation’s five power conferences.
Will the Big 12 retain power status in its new form?
The answer depends on how you define a power conference.
For football purposes, advanced statistics and rankings over the past five years show that the new Big 12 will remain one of the nation’s five strongest conferences. Maybe even top four or three in certain years. It has actually been better than the Pac-12 and the ACC, in some cases, depending on what you value most on the gridiron.
Future Big 12 members have placed more teams in the final AP top 25 rankings than the Pac-12 in four consecutive seasons, and it has topped the ACC in each of the past three.
Last year was a particularly strong season for the new Big 12, as Cincinnati (8), Iowa State (9), BYU (11) and Oklahoma State (20) all had successful campaigns while only Southern California (21) finished in the top 25 from the Pac-12.
If you’re more into advanced statistics, the Big 12 has also stacked up well against the Pac-12 in both the final Sagarin and SP+ ratings over the past five years.
The Big 12’s average Sagarin team ranking out-performed the Pac-12 in three of the past five seasons, but the Pac-12 (49) ended up with a slight edge over the Big 12 (52) overall.
Shift over to SP+ rankings, and it’s a similar story. The Big 12 topped the Pac-12 in each of the past three seasons but ranked behind it in the big picture. ESPN college football statistician Bill Connelly shared conference data averages over the past five years, and the new Big 12 ranked fifth overall.
But there was a clear split in his data. The Big 12 ranked less than a point behind the Pac-12 and less than two points behind the ACC, while also ranking well ahead of every other conference. The American Athletic Conference ranked sixth, nearly seven points below the Big 12.
That means the Big 12 is closer to the top four than the bottom five.
If power status is defined by the nation’s best five conferences, there’s no reason the Big 12 should be relegated to second-tier status.
One big disadvantage for the Big 12
The Big 12 may be able to hang with other power conferences on a pound-for-pound basis. But there is one clear difference between them. You could say it separates them from the heavyweights.
The ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC are home to teams that have not only reached the College Football Playoff but advanced to the championship game. The ACC, Big Ten and SEC have all won trophies.
The Big 12? Not so much without Oklahoma.
Eight different new Big 12 teams have played in major bowls during the past decade, but none of them have truly emerged as national championship contenders.
No Big 12 team has finished higher than sixth (UCF in 2017) in the past five final AP rankings.
That lack of a flagship team at the top of the conference, such as Alabama or Clemson or Ohio State or USC could make it difficult for the Big 12 to significantly increase its media rights deals or win big moving forward.
If the playoff expands to 12 teams and guarantees automatic berths to the nation’s top six conference champions, as originally planned, a new Big 12 school will be given the opportunity to escape Oklahoma’s shadow each year.
Can a team like Iowa State or Oklahoma State take the next step? Can Houston or UCF take advantage of extra resources and make a huge jump under the Big 12 flag? Anything is possible. But it may be difficult for a new super power to emerge from the Big 12 while its teams are operating on a budget tens of millions of dollars behind other national powers.
The Big 12 might stack up well against the Pac-12 in most years, but playoff appearances and championships speak louder than anything else.
It’s fair to wonder if the Big 12 is properly equipped to challenge other power conferences on that front without Oklahoma and Texas.
Their prestige may suffer until that changes.
Better than the alternative
The good news for the Big 12 is that its teams have new goals to strive for.
That was in doubt last month when its eight remaining members were all praying for invitations to other conferences. Now that they are working together, perhaps they can refortify the conference.
It seems like they are off to a good start. The Big 12’s eight remaining members have started the season 7-1. New members BYU, Cincinnati and UCF all won big in their openers. Only Houston lost in what will soon be a conference matchup against Texas Tech.
With an overall record of 10-2, future Big 12 members have a better collective winning percentage than every conference other than the SEC.
We may not have heard the last of that Big 12 football chant.
This story was originally published September 8, 2021 at 4:10 PM with the headline "Will the Big 12 remain a power conference after adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF?."