Will any Big 12 schools emerge as expansion targets for George Kliavkoff and Pac-12?
For the Big 12’s eight remaining members, every day that goes by without a definitive answer on the future of their conference has to feel like standing in line for a table at a Michelin-starred restaurant.
There’s no telling when or if they will be seated, and it’s getting hard to resist the fast-food joint around the corner. But they keep waiting, because they aren’t ready to settle for Plan B when hope remains for Plan A.
At the moment, Plan A appears to be Pac-12 expansion. And it remains an option for Big 12 schools after Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff elaborated on how the conference may go about adding new teams during a recent interview with Jon Wilner of the Mercury News.
“If we do look at expansion, then it would be a process that we would go through,” Kliavkoff told the paper. “But the first decision is whether or not we want to expand.”
On Tuesday, Kliavkoff told The Athletic the Pac-12 will make its announcement on whether to expand by the end of the week.
The Pac-12 has already formed an expansion group that features high-ranking campus officials from at least six of the Pac-12’s schools, according to the Mercury News. If the league decides to explore expansion, that committee will presumably listen to pitches from schools and then vote on them. A school will need to receive nine votes from Pac-12 presidents and chancellors to formally receive an invitation.
Good news for the Big 12?
On the surface, that is good news for any Big 12 team hoping to join a new power conference now that Oklahoma and Texas are leaving for the SEC.
But the Pac-12’s expansion timeline is filled with much more bureaucracy than what we saw from the SEC when it added Oklahoma and Texas. Those schools expressed interest in joining the conference, and once their desires became public the SEC voted to invite them at warp speed.
There wasn’t an expansion committee. Adding Oklahoma and Texas made sense, so it happened.
Kliavkoff’s stated plan for Pac-12 expansion feels more like the Big 12’s meandering flirtation with expansion from 2016 when conference officials formed a committee and listened to pitches from schools such as Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and many others. As we all know, that process didn’t result in expansion.
Big 12 leaders ultimately decided to stand pat, because none of the prospective schools brought enough value to the conference as new members. But Bob Bowlsby did thank those schools for expressing interest.
Nevertheless, Pac-12 expansion is currently the best shot for any of the eight remaining Big 12 teams (Baylor, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia) to find refuge in another power conference during this round of realignment.
Kliavkoff told the Las Vegas Review Journal last week that many schools had reached out to his conference and expressed a desire to join. He didn’t name any of the schools, but said they are “probably all of the ones you would expect and several you’d be surprised by.”
Some may assume that list includes Kansas and K-State. Perhaps it does. But the Kansas Board of Regents has said both schools must notify it before exploring membership in a new conference. As of Monday, a KBOR representative said neither school has provided them with written documentation to do so.
What does Pac-12 value in expansion?
In any case, it’s worth asking which Big 12 teams could be attractive expansion targets.
Three criteria are likely to stand out:
1. Brand value.
2. Academics.
3. Across-the-board athletic success.
Value is probably the most important of the three. The Pac-12’s current media-rights deal is reportedly worth $24 million a year per school. Big 12 schools are accustomed to bringing in more (around $28 million), but Bowlsby has said its remaining members can expect that number to drop by 50% without Oklahoma and Texas.
A $14 million valuation feels like a non-starter, especially when the Pac-12 can increase revenue by simply signing a new TV contract in 2023 without expanding.
But maybe some of the leftover Big 12 schools are more valuable than others. Or perhaps they offer something different to the Pac-12, such as a recruiting pipeline to Texas, basketball excellence, a passionate fan base or more access to TV time slots in the central time zone.
If a Big 12 school checks the “value” box, the Pac-12 expansion committee will likely then judge it based on cultural fit. That means strong academics and a commitment to winning at sports beyond men’s basketball and football.
Nine of the Pac-12’s schools are members of the American Association of Universities. Kansas and Iowa State also hold that designation in the Big 12. Perhaps that could make them attractive expansion targets.
When it comes to across-the-board athletic success, look no further than the Director’s Cup standings, which ranks the nation’s top all-around athletic department. This is where the Pac-12 flexes its muscle.
Stanford had won the honor 25 straight times until Texas knocked it down to second this past athletic year. Still, the Pac-12 placed eight schools in the top 40 and all 12 finished in the top 90.
The Big 12’s remaining members weren’t as well represented. Oklahoma State led the way at No. 18, followed by Baylor (29), Iowa State (38), Texas Tech (43), TCU (45), West Virginia (49), Kansas (82) and Kansas State (139).
But maybe that could help the Cowboys stand out from the pack.
Learning from the past
The last time the Pac-12 publicly explored expansion it added Colorado and Utah after striking out with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.
The Cowboys and Red Raiders could once again be options, but they aren’t nearly as attractive without their in-state rivals tagging along as travel partners.
Colorado and Utah are both AAU members with respectable athletic departments that fit the Pac-12 geographically.
Will any new schools fit their criteria a decade later?
The Big 12’s remaining members will keep waiting in line until they find out.
This story was originally published August 24, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Will any Big 12 schools emerge as expansion targets for George Kliavkoff and Pac-12?."