Apologies aside, here’s why Baker Mayfield will win the Heisman in a landslide

Some years the Heisman Trophy announcement drips with drama. In 2015, Alabama running back Derrick Henry edged out Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey. The same schools were involved in an even closer battle in 2009, when winner Mark Ingram received five more first-place votes than Toby Gerhart.

Then there are announcements like what we will see on Saturday.

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield is expected to win going away. His favorite status is so strong that Bovada, an online sports-betting service, took the Heisman race off the board in late November, calling Mayfield too big a favorite.

How did this happen? Mayfield continued his excellence throughout the season while other top challengers and early favorites — like last year’s winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville, Southern California’s Sam Darnold and Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett — faded.

One service, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, listed Darnold as the preseason favorite at 5-1, followed by Mayfield (7-1) and Jackson (8-1).

Darnold didn’t get invited to New York as a finalist. Mayfield and Jackson did, along with Stanford running back Bryce Love. They’ll all be there to applaud the next Sooners quarterback to win college football’s biggest individual prize in the award’s 83rd presentation ceremony.

Still, we’ll engage in an exercise for the finalists: Why they’ll win it, and why they won’t.

Lamar Jackson

Why he’ll win it

Jackson surpassed some totals from last year’s Heisman Trophy season. He has completed 60.4 percent of his passes (56.2 in 2016) and owns a quarterback rating of 151.5 (148.8). With a decent bowl game, he will also exceed his total passing and rushing yards from last season. Ans he has accomplished this with several new faces in the Louisville offense.

Why he won’t

The Cardials’ 8-4 record shouldn’t hurt Jackson. Louisville lost three regular-season games last season. But Heisman voters have never been comfortable with repeat winners. There has only been one: Ohio State running back Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. Over the past few years, Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston were unable to duplicate their awards. Voters don’t seem to mind listing a previous winner second or third, but not first.

Predicted finish: Third

Bryce Love

Why he’ll win it

With 1,973 rushing yards and an average of 8.3 yards per carry, Love has been sensational. He was the unanimous Pac-12 offensive player of the year, averaging 164.4 yards per game. He set an FBS record with 12 runs of at least 50 yards or more. Love missed the Oregon State game with an ankle injury and the Cardinal beat the last-place Beavers 15-14.

Why he won’t

Love isn’t the nation’s leading rusher. That’s San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny (2,027), who also leads in yards from scrimmage with 2,169. And then there’s the Stanford thing. Cardinal players have perfected the art of the Heisman runner-up finish in this decade. Along with the aforementioned McCaffrey and Gerhart, quarterback Andrew Luck finished second in 2011 and 2010.

Predicted finish: Second

Baker Mayfield

Why he’ll win it

Mayfield ruled college football this season. He tops the nation in completion percentage (71.0), passing yards per attempt (11.8), yards per play (10.2) and touchdowns responsible for (46). Mayfield lapped the field in passer-efficiency rating, which takes into account several statistics. There’s a career achievement feeling here as well, with Mayfield finishing fourth in the 2015 Heisman voting and third last season.

Why he won’t

Mayfield apologizes a lot for a football player. There was his arrest for public intoxication in February, his flag-planting at Ohio State and the crotch grabbing at Kansas. Those antics likely will cost Mayfield some votes but not the award. Saturday night, when the envelope opens and the winner is announced, Mayfield will step to the podium as the third Oklahoma quarterback to win the Heisman in the past 15 years, following Jason White and Sam Bradford.

Predicted finish: First

This story was originally published December 7, 2017 at 3:55 PM with the headline "Apologies aside, here’s why Baker Mayfield will win the Heisman in a landslide."