Fantasy Baseball Closer Confidential for Week 9 2026: Save Situations, Job Battles & Waiver Targets

Five closers on the IL simultaneously. Josh Hader needs five more rehab outings. The Twins just set a record for most different pitchers earning saves - in the second full month of the season. Pour yourself something strong.

The save landscape heading into Memorial Day weekend looks less like a bullpen depth chart and more like a hospital waiting room. Edwin Diaz is post-surgery and won't be back until after the All-Star break. Ryan Helsley hasn't been cleared to throw yet and needs a rehab assignment before Baltimore sees him again. Josh Hader is five rehab outings away from returning to Houston, which means June at the earliest regardless of what the optimists say. Emilio Pagan and Carlos Estevez are also on the shelf. Five closers, all gone at the same time.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, Anthony Banda became the Twins' tenth unique pitcher to record a save in 2026 this past Thursday. Their 10th. The team record was broken in the second full month of the season. I have nothing to add to that. The numbers speak for themselves and they are speaking very loudly.

The good news is that the top of the market remains genuinely excellent and a few arms have separated themselves from the chaos below. Let's get to grades.

Reviewing the Categories

In the weekly Closer Confidential column, we group closers, and committees, into three cohorts:

• Secure: 90 and Above - Low-to-no risk; good results, strong underlying statistics

• Shaky: 80–89 - Some doubt exists, often with inconsistent supporting skills and stats

• Seesaw: 79 and Below - Committees and closers in trouble. The ninth inning is, or should be, in doubt.

Secure Closers

Mason Miller is Mason Miller. He worked two saves this week with a pair of scoreless outings and continues to operate on a plane that is inaccessible to other humans. The conversation about whether the Padres are wasting the greatest reliever of his generation in a 70-inning bullpen role is a legitimate one and we will have it at some point this season. For now, the grades say what the grades say.

Cade Smith had another clean week behind Erik Sabrowski's MLB-leading holds production, which makes Cleveland's late innings the best one-two punch in baseball right now. No grade change. He is simply very good and consistently so.

The Aroldis Chapman experiment continues to succeed despite all reasonable skepticism. Seven-for-seven in save opportunities. Zero earned runs in his last eight appearances. I said the grades must be honest and they must. He stays in Secure. The seed of doubt I planted several weeks ago is still in the ground. I check on it every morning. It has not yet sprouted. I remain watchful.

David Bednar had a quiet week in New York with three non-save appearances, which is a fine way to stay fresh. No movement.

Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold

Shaky Closers

Let me start with the arm I want to talk about most: Louis Varland. Toronto gave him three save chances this week and he converted all three, including a tense Saturday appearance against the Guardians where he worked through traffic before holding on. He struck out the side Tuesday to collect his fourth save. A 0.48 ERA across 19 outings. A 38 percent strikeout rate. This is not a committee situation. This is a closer. His grade goes up and the conversation about whether he belongs in Secure territory starts now.

Bryan Baker had a tough outing in Week 8 implosion, but bounced back. His season numbers now read a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 17.1 innings. He has converted 11 of Tampa Bay's 17 saves and no other Rays reliever has more than two. The four-walk disaster was the anomaly, not the baseline. His 24.3 percent hard-hit rate and 2.7 percent barrel rate are the baseline. Grade goes up.

Tanner Scott remains the Dodgers' primary closer with Diaz out until after the All-Star break, but Los Angeles has used him in the seventh inning in recent games rather than holding him exclusively for the ninth. The saves are real-15 straight scoreless outings at his peak, four straight saves converted-but the role definition is loose enough to keep him where he is rather than push him up. If the Dodgers commit to him as their ninth-inning arm exclusively, this grade climbs fast.

Devin Williams has been steady. The seven-game scoreless streak from last week held and his underlying numbers continue to trend in the right direction. The Mets' broader bullpen situation remains a source of ambient concern, but Williams himself looks like the arm we drafted.

Jhoan Duran is back from his oblique strain and I'm keeping him in Shaky territory because oblique strains demand respect even when the return looks clean. Give me two more weeks of healthy appearances and I'll revisit.

Riley O'Brien posted another solid week in St. Louis - a 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 23 strikeouts over 20 innings for the season. He is one of the genuinely underrated closer stories of 2026 and still available in more leagues than he should be.

Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold

Seesaw Situations

The Ryan Helsley situation in Baltimore needs a clear-eyed update. He has not been cleared to start a throwing program, is targeting a late-May return, and will need a rehab assignment before rejoining the Orioles. No ligament damage, which is the good news. The better news is the arm covering for him.

But the O's are in no rush - Rico Garcia has a .000 BABIP this season. Not a typo. The only hit Garcia has allowed in the field of play all year was a home run to the Royals' Michael Massey on April 21, which means every single batted ball that has stayed in the park has turned into an out. That is not sustainable. Nobody will tell you it is sustainable.

And yet here is the thing about Rico Garcia: his average exit velocity sits at 83.1 mph in the 99th percentile, his ground ball rate is 54.3 percent in the 90th percentile, and his xERA is 1.84 even after stripping out the luck. Weakly hit grounders do not turn into hits very often. The BABIP will normalize. The underlying skills are real.

Garcia was a 30th-round draft pick in 2016, has been a free agent seven times, was claimed off waivers four times including three times in 2025 alone, and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. He is now holding down the closer role for a legitimate AL East contender. The grade goes up to 79. I want to go higher and the metrics suggest I should. But the .000 BABIP-and Helsley's timeline for return-says I must wait.

Josh Hader in Houston: This week, manager Joe Espada said he needs five more rehab outings. That is not a May return. That is a June return at best, possibly later. Bryan King and Bryan Abreu continue splitting duties. I've said hold him if you have the roster spot and I'll say it one more time, but if your team needs that spot to compete in June, this is the week to make the call and move on.

The Colorado situation has shifted slightly in an interesting direction. Antonio Senzatela got the last five outs of a win over Arizona on Thursday, improving to 4-0 on the season with a 0.50 ERA. He is demonstrably the best arm in that bullpen. He is still being used as a long reliever rather than a defined closer, which makes him a frustrating fantasy asset, but his role is creeping toward the ninth. He replaces Juan Mejia as Colorado's primary entry this week. Mejia drops. Senzatela gets a bump to 74.

Kenley Jansen continues his descent in Detroit. The groin and lower abdomen remain a concern, Kyle Finnegan has now blown two saves in this same stretch, and this situation has not stabilized the way I was hoping when I made the initial grade call several weeks ago. Another drop this week. I want to see Jansen available and healthy for a full series before I consider moving him back up.

Pete Fairbanks is at 79 in Miami and the command concerns from his return without a rehab outing remain valid. Calvin Faucher and Anthony Bender are still relevant names to monitor there.

The Minnesota situation is what it is. Ten pitchers. One team. Second month of the season. Do not roster anyone in this committee unless you are in a very deep league and have genuinely exhausted every other option. At that point I would suggest going outside for a walk and reconsidering your life choices before adding a Twins reliever.

** Denotes Closer Committee*

Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold

One More Thing

Erceg gets a bump this week and deserves a mention at the bottom. He has 10 saves in Kansas City and has allowed just two hits and no earned runs over his last eight outings. The Royals are 24-22 and playing real baseball. Lucas Erceg is a real closer. Quietly, he might be the best waiver-wire add in saves formats right now if he is somehow still available in your league. Go check. Right now. I'll wait.

Confidentially, Here Are Closer Questions, Answered

Who are the most secure closers heading into Week 9 of 2026 fantasy baseball?

Mason Miller, Cade Smith, David Bednar, and Aroldis Chapman headline the Secure tier, with Miller at 97 and Chapman earning his spot after going seven-for-seven with zero earned runs in his last eight appearances.

Which closer committees should fantasy managers monitor this week?

Minnesota is the most chaotic situation in baseball with ten different pitchers recording saves in the second full month of the season, while Colorado is shifting toward Antonio Senzatela and Houston remains a split between Bryan King and Bryan Abreu with Hader still weeks away.

What are the top waiver-wire closer targets for Week 9?

Louis Varland is the priority add after three straight saves and a 0.48 ERA with a 38 percent strikeout rate, with Lucas Erceg and Bryan Baker close behind as legitimate closers in Kansas City and Tampa Bay respectively.

Should I drop any struggling closers right now?

Kenley Jansen drops again with his groin limiting him and Finnegan blowing two saves in the same stretch, and Hader is a drop in all but the deepest formats if you need that roster spot heading into June.

How are recent Statcast trends affecting closer value in 2026?

Rico Garcia's .000 BABIP looks fortunate, but his 83.1 mph average exit velocity in the 99th percentile and 1.84 xERA support the underlying performance, and Bryan Baker's 24.3 percent hard-hit rate helps explain why last week's four-walk outing was the outlier.

Which matchups matter most for streaming relievers in Week 9?

Riley O'Brien offers the cleanest streaming profile at 87 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, while Tanner Scott requires daily monitoring given the Dodgers' recent usage pattern in the seventh inning rather than exclusively in save situations.

Copyright 2026 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved

This story was originally published May 24, 2026 at 11:57 AM.