Must-see TV: Don't go all in on St. Louis; give up on Kansas City
A little over a quarter of the way through the MLB season, I think the St. Louis Cardinals are a good baseball team.
The Kansas City Royals, not so much.
Kansas City sat at 20-30 overall Friday ahead of its game against the Seattle Mariners, and I think it gets worse before it gets better on the west side of the state.
St. Louis is 28-21 and had Friday's game against the Cincinnati Reds postponed.
While I believe the Cardinals are good, I'm not ready to go all in on this team just yet. They've shown an inconsistency on the mound, and they aren't quite an elite offense. But they have been good on offense for the most part.
I think they're a fun team with young talent that can really put on a show at times. Get to Busch Stadium to watch them play this year. You'll be glad you did. I believe a lot of this young talent is in St. Louis to stay, and they'll be even better in a season or two.
Right now, Jordan Walker has a WAR (wins above replacement) of 2.8, which ranks third in the MLB. He leads the team with 13 home runs, 35 runs batted in and a batting average of .295. His slugging percentage of .563 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of .929 are also team-highs.
JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Walker and Ivan Herrera are all getting on base at a high clip. Wetherholt's number of .357 is the lowest of the quartet, while Burleson is at .359, Herrera .386 and Walker .366.
St. Louis is 12th in home runs with 56 as a team, and it ranks ninth with some of the fewest strikeouts as an offense with 399. It can hit for power and also puts the ball in play a lot.
On the mound
On the mound, the Cardinals are led by youngster Michael McGreevy. The 25-year-old has been impressive with an earned run average of 2.40 and WHIP below 1.00 at .99. He's allowing less than one baserunner per inning.
McGreevy has also recorded six quality starts in 10 total. The rest of the starters have had their days of success and days of struggles. Andre Pallante, Dustin May, Matthew Liberatore and Kyle Leahy have an ERA and WHIP well above McGreevy's.
Pallante and Liberatore are north of 4.00 on ERA. Leahy features the next best ERA at 3.94, while May's is 5.00. None of the four below McGreevy are holding up in WHIP. Pallante's is the best at 1.35, while the others are 1.4 or 1.5.
It appears Pallante or Leahy could be that steady No. 2 option, but I think in order for St. Louis to continue playing like they have, someone needs to step up and assert himself as the obvious second option.
St. Louis' bullpen has had minimal trouble and has really been able to lean on Riley O'Brien as the closer and Gordon Graceffo as another steady go-to arm in late innings. Ryne Stanek and Matt Svanson could easily be moved to the minor leagues or out of the organization entirely at this point with so many young productive pitchers in the bullpen.
St. Louis is on pace for about 96 wins, but I don't think that's realistic. I would say 90 wins is the best-case scenario, but I'd probably say 86 is where I'd put them right now.
Struggling to pitch
Give up on the Royals. They have struggled to pitch in 2026, contrary to last season. The Royals were able to tread above .500 for most of the season, anchored by its pitching staff and the strong year from Seth Lugo.
Lugo was excellent in 2024 with an earned run average of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.08, which earned him a runner-up finish in Cy Young Award voting in the American League. His ERA rose to 4.15 and his WHIP to 1.29, but he was still productive.
I'm afraid after five really solid outings to start 2026, he's hit a bump in the road as a 36-year-old. In his last five starts, he's managed a couple of quality starts, but the other three saw him either be lifted before the sixth inning or allow seven runs across six innings. His numbers are at 3.68 and 1.40 for ERA and WHIP, respectively. But in the last five starts, his numbers are 6.59 and 1.93.
Michael Wacha has led the starting rotation thus far with a 2.70 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. This marks a third straight year in which Wacha has produced for Kansas City. Really, he's been a productive starter for five straight seasons with the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres prior to coming to Kansas City.
If Lugo can iron it out in June, maybe Kansas City will be fine. But I'm not optimistic. The younger arms - Kris Bubic (28), Cole Ragans (28) and Noah Cameron (26) - haven't quite emerged as top arms just yet. That's not to say they can't do that in 2026, but I'm not seeing it.
Ragans is an excellent strikeout pitcher. He averages 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings but also has an ERA of 4.84 and a WHIP of 1.42. And he hasn't started a game since early May and looks like it might be two weeks before he's back in the rotation.
Stephen Kolek has three starts in Ragans' absence, and he's given two quality starts. Kolek has been a bright spot this month and could be a part of turning things around if he continues to log quality starts.
Bubic hasn't been disappointing by any means with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.23. Cameron, on the other hand, has an ERA north of 5, and his WHIP is 1.50.
The Royals' bullpen has worked well for the most part this season.
The offense is just downright bad again. Bobby Witt Jr. is himself. He's batting .299 and has a WAR of 3.3, which is tops among all major league hitters. After that, maybe you could talk positively about Jac Caglianone - his OPS is at .750. But that's the second-best mark on the team behind Witt's .852.
The Royals have only scored 194 runs this season and rank 27th in the MLB. Their 224 runs allowed ranks tied for 16th. Both numbers need to improve to have a prayer at the playoffs but the offense especially needs to get better.
I'd say the best-case scenario is the Royals winning 80 games this season.
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This story was originally published May 23, 2026 at 5:57 AM.