Arch Manning isn't the ‘Top' QB in 2027 for NFL Teams

Arch Manning was the big name circulating for the 2026 NFL Draft last summer.

The Texas Longhorns quarterback decided to return to college for the upcoming season after going through some growing pains in his first year as a starter. 

Manning was held in check by a stout Ohio State defense in Week 1, throwing for just 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 14-7 loss at Ohio Stadium. Manning continued to struggle early in the season, with notable frustrating efforts coming against UTEP, Florida and Kentucky.

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However, he started hitting his stride in the second half of the season starting with Mississippi State on Oct. 25. Manning finished the season with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He added 399 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

Manning is projected to be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the 2027 NFL Draft, should he decide to enter.

Per Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, Manning would not be the consensus No. 1 player or quarterback in 2027. Oregon signal caller Dante Moore would be “the top guy” at this point in the offseason. Moore isn’t projected to have a higher ceiling than Manning, but he seems like the safer choice based on the tape from last year.

Moore would have likely been the No. 2 quarterback taken in April’s draft if he hasn’t decided to return to Oregon to work on fundamentals before entering the league. Moore will need to work on dealing with pressure this season, but his arm is consistent when he has time to throw.

An assistant NFL general manager told Breer that Manning lacks “special arm talent” and is not expected to be a “generational” talent in the league. 

“His decision-making under duress is still iffy and needs work; he runs hot and cold with his accuracy,” the assistant GM said. “He can make pinpoint throws, but consistently misses on in-cuts, digs and slants. You’ll bet on the kid because of the pedigree, but he’s not in the Andrew Luck category. 

“How I’d look at it: Luck was freaky smart, a freaky athlete. The floor was extremely high, the failure rate really low. Arch doesn’t have a low floor, but it’s definitely lower than that. And he has a ceiling that could match Luck’s-the true physical ability could match it. But some of the QB-specific play, he’s not there yet.”

Based on the whole tape from last season, that seems like the sane analysis of Moore and Manning.

With that being said, Manning has room to develop and overtake Moore this season. The last name alone could cause some teams to take Manning before Moore. 

If Manning carries the momentum he had at the end of the 2025 season into the fall, he’ll make quite the argument he’s worthy of being the No. 1 pick.

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This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 6:10 PM.