Predictions for K-State at KU, Missouri and the best bets in college football Week 12
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 11:
Kansas State (-7.5) at Kansas
This has been an interesting betting line to follow.
Last week, the Wildcats were only favored by four points. But that number jumped all the way up to 9.5 in some places after K-State obliterated Baylor and KU lost to Texas Tech. What really made the spread move was the unknown injury status of Kansas quarterback Jason Bean.
That leaves a bit of mystery about this year’s edition of the Sunflower Showdown.
This would feel close to an even matchup if the Jayhawks were sure to have a healthy Bean at quarterback. Both teams at 7-3. Both teams are ranked in the College Football Playoff top 25. Kansas has played well at home this season and K-State has struggled a bit on the road.
On paper, this looks like the most competitive Sunflower Showdown matchup in decades.
But if the Jayhawks have to play freshman quarterback Cole Ballard then the scales start to tilt in favor of the Wildcats.
Without knowing exactly who will lead the KU offense, this feels like a good opportunity to back the Wildcats. Yes, they are 1-3 on the road this season. Yes, they are 0-2 against ranked teams. But those losses came against Missouri and Texas on the final play of those games.
It’s not like they were outclassed in either matchup.
K-State also always finds a way to get up for this game. This rivalry matters to the Wildcats, no matter how good or bad the Jayhawks are playing in any given season. KU played well against K-State last season but the Jayhawks seemed nervous and made a boatload of unforced errors that allowed the Wildcats to win by 20.
We know how K-State is going to handle this game. The same can’t be said about KU.
Florida (+12) at Missouri
Crazy as it sounds to fade Missouri right now, that might not be a terrible strategy this week.
Hear me out.
Even though the Tigers are a significantly better team than the Gators, I worry that it might not be easy for Missouri to cover this large of a number. Why? Missouri is coming off a pair of colossal games against Georgia and Tennessee.
The odds of Missouri suffering from an emotional letdown are high.
Florida coach Billy Napier has also traditionally been excellent against the spread as an underdog and Florida quarterback Graham Mertz (a Blue Valley North product) will be playing close to home.
I won’t be surprised if the Gators can keep it close.
Best Bets
Last Week: 1-6
Season Record: 33-40-2
Cincinnati (+6.5) at West Virginia: The Bearcats finally won a Big 12 game last week at Houston. The Mountaineers were humbled during a blowout loss at Oklahoma. Things should get back to normal this weekend. New Big 12 teams have struggled mightily against old Big 12 teams all season. Neal Brown’s team should win by a touchdown or more. Pick: West Virginia.
UNLV (+3.5) at Air Force: These teams are heading in opposite directions. The Falcons have lost consecutive games to Army and Hawaii. The Rebels have won seven of their past eight. UNLV has also gone 5-0 against the spread on the road this season. Pick: UNLV.
UCF (+2.5) at Texas Tech: I wouldn’t read too much into how badly UCF beat Oklahoma State last week. The Knights are playing better now that they have John Rhys Plumlee back at quarterback, sure. But the Cowboys were obviously suffering from a Bedlam hangover and never got off the bus. Things won’t be so easy for UCF on Saturday. Texas Tech has started to figure things out with a healthy Behren Morton at quarterback. I will back the Red Raiders as a short favorite here. Pick: Texas Tech.
New Mexico State (+23.5) at Auburn: The Tigers have been excellent at covering huge spreads at home lately. Earlier this season they defeated Samford 45-13 and Massachusetts 59-14. Last year, in this same exact situation with Alabama on deck, they demolished Western Kentucky 41-17. New Mexico State has been surprisingly good this season, but only against bad competition. It also lost aforementioned UMass at home. I don’t the Aggies are ready for this kind of game. Pick: Auburn.
Utah (-1.5) at Arizona: Betting on the Wildcats when they are home underdogs is an automatic play for me, at this point. Arizona is quietly playing like one of the best teams in the entire country, as it has won four games in a row. But few are taking notice. Add in the fact that Utah has been pedestrian as a road team this season and I like this spot even more. Pick: Arizona.
Oregon (+24) at Arizona State: The last time oddsmakers gifted the Sun Devils a boatload of points at home they gave USC a competitive game and only lost by 14. I can see this game playing out in similar fashion. Lean: Arizona State.
Colorado (+4.5) at Washington State: My rule of thumb as worked most of the season with the Buffaloes. Bet on them as underdogs. Bet against them as favorites. Colorado has covered four straight as a dog and is now catching more than a field goal against the Cougars, who have lost six straight. Pick: Colorado.
Upset Pick of the Week
North Carolina (+210) at Clemson: Any time an unranked team is favored against a ranked opponent that is usually a good sign for the favorite. But I’m going to go against traditional wisdom here and recommend North Carolina at Clemson. Who are the Tigers to be laying a touchdown with the season that they are having? No one will be surprised if Drake May leads the Tar Heels to a win.
Other lines worth considering
San Diego State (+14.5) at San Jose State: The Spartans are on a winning streak and now that get to play the struggling Aztecs, with a lame duck coach, at home. Lean: San Jose State.
Oklahoma (-24.5) at BYU: This is a ton of points, but I would still consider backing the Sooners as a colossal road favorite. BYU looks like a zombie team right now. Lean: Oklahoma.
UMass (+27.5) at Liberty: The Flames need all the style points they can get right now to try and earn a berth into one of the NY6 bowls. Lean: Liberty.
Old Dominion (+6) at Georgia Southern: I have my doubts that Old Dominion can offer much resistance against the Georgia Southern passing attack. Lean: Georgia Southern.
East Carolina (+3) at Navy: The Pirates have one of the worst offenses in all of college football, and they have struggled in the past to defend the triple option. Lean: Navy.
This story was originally published November 16, 2023 at 12:44 PM with the headline "Predictions for K-State at KU, Missouri and the best bets in college football Week 12."