Forget fall, it’s election season
Aside from the looming onslaught pumpkin flavored beverages and Halloween decorations, for us political nerds, Labor Day Weekend means one thing: election season is about to heat up.
It’s when the normal folks, the ones who aren’t paid to pay attention, start tuning in to see what the candidates are doing and the campaigns begin bombarding the airwaves with ads trying to drag down their opponents.
So, with two months to go before Election Day, I thought it might be worth exploring the status of the high-profile races this fall.
Kansas 3rd Congressional
The race between Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids and her Republican opponent, Amanda Adkins, is a rematch from 2020, when Davids beat Adkins by 10 percentage points.
This time, however, there are new district lines that make the district more favorable to Republicans and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, coupled with inflation, creates a headwind for Davids.
That makes it one of the key races that could help determine which party wins control of the U.S. House for the next two years.
Currently, the Democrats have a narrow eight-seat advantage. Republicans are widely expected to gain control, in part because of the typical gains the party opposing the president makes in midterm elections and in part because of new, gerrymandered maps that favor Republicans (Democrats tried to gerrymander too, but their most significant efforts in states like New York were shot down by the courts).
There wasn’t much of a primary election in the race because Davids didn’t have an opponent and Republicans largely cleared the field for Adkins, who cruised to an easy primary victory. Instead, the focus was on the constitutional amendment that would have eliminated a right to an abortion from the Kansas constitution.
Democrats have painted high voter turnout to reject the measure as evidence that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the federal right to an abortion has motivated Democratic voters to come out in droves. So far, Davids campaign has repeatedly emphasized abortion and Adkins’ connections to former Gov. Sam Brownback as two of their top talking points in the campaign.
Adkins, meanwhile, is hewing to Republican messaging surrounding the economy and immigration. She’s repeatedly emphasized inflation and has attempted to pin the blame for high costs on President Joe Biden (and Davids). Her campaign has used fentanyl overdoses as a way to talk about immigration at the southern border, an issue that has motivated the Republican base since former Sen. John McCain ran for president in 2008.
In terms of campaign appearances, Davids has mostly stuck to official events where she talks about money she’s helped secure for the district or the effects of one of the bills Democrats have been able to get through Congress, like the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Adkins has been participating in “meet and greets” with voters across the district.
Major election analysts consider the race a toss-up.
Kansas gubernatorial
There’s another close race in Kansas — the battle over who will be the state’s governor for the next four years.
Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly had a couple of pretty big factors going for her when she won office four years ago — it was the first election Democrats could vote in after former President Donald Trump won a surprise victory in 2016; former Republican Gov. Sam Brownback was the most unpopular governor in the country; and she was running against then-Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a polarizing figure. She won by 5 percentage points.
This time, she faces a much more difficult election, facing Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who is seen as a more generic, mainstream Republican. She’s also running in a year when Republicans are favored to win nationally, unlike 2018, when Democrats were favored.
Like in the 3rd Congressional District, Democrats are hoping to carry forward some of the momentum they saw with the vote on the constitutional amendment. But, having to campaign across the state, Kelly has spent more time emphasizing her record as a moderate. She’s put out ads saying that she’s used to being “in the middle” and has talked up her efforts to address inflation, like cutting the food sales tax.
Schmidt, meanwhile, is running on the economy as well. He’s suggested eliminating taxes on diapers and feminine hygiene products. He’s also attempted to tie Kelly to Biden, hoping that any dislike Kansans feel toward the Democratic president will translate to Kelly’s reelection bid.
Missouri Senate
The primary campaigns for the U.S. Senate in Missouri were a rather raucous affair, particularly on the Republican side where much of the attention was focused on the attempted political comeback of former Gov. Eric Greitens.
That comeback was thwarted, however, by Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who easily won the Republican nomination and will face Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine, part of the family that founded Anheuser-Busch.
Missouri is no longer the bellwether state that it was through much of the 20th century. The state narrowly went for former Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election and has become an increasingly Republican-controlled state ever since. Former President Donald Trump won the state by 15 percentage points in 2020 in his losing reelection bid.
Because of that trend, Schmitt is heavily favored to become the next U.S. Senator in Missouri. As I pointed out in a previous newsletter, where Republicans in other states have felt the need to campaign more toward the middle, Schmitt has continued his campaign appealing to the Republican base of the party. He’s continued to talk about his effort to block the policies of Biden’s administration and has said he’ll take a “blowtorch” to Biden’s agenda in Congress.
Busch Valentine, meanwhile, is trying to paint Schmitt as “too extreme” for the state and has emphasized his role in enacting Missouri’s ban on abortions in all cases except medical emergencies.
More from Missouri
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley said he will not vote for a bill to offer federal protections for same-sex and interracial marriages, saying he felt same-sex marriage should be left up to the states. There has been a push in Congress to protect same-sex marriage after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a landmark ruling from the 1970s that said there was a constitutional right to an abortion and U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas said the court’s 2015 same-sex marriage decision should be examined next.
Here are headlines from across the state:
Hawley opposes bill to protect same-sex marriage, Daniel Desrochers
Missouri judge finds no ‘pattern of domestic violence’ by former Gov. Eric Greitens, Kacen Bayless
Judge says Fauci, Jean-Pierre have to give emails with social media companies to Schmitt, Daniel Desrochers
Missouri AG gets court order to shut down Agape Boarding School, Judy L. Thomas and Laura Bauer
Teens taken against their will to boarding schools across US, Judy L. Thomas and Laura Bauer
And across Kansas
Kris Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state and current Republican nominee for Kansas attorney general, said his scandal-plagued non-profit that attempted to raise money to build a wall on the southern border is shutting down after Steve Bannon, a former adviser to President Donald Trump was indicted on fraud charges.
Kobach says We Build the Wall shutting down, Jonathan Shorman and Katie Bernard
Schmidt wants to eliminate sales tax on diapers, feminine hygiene, Katie Bernard
Schmidt calls on Kelly to expand credit monitoring to Kansans, Katie Bernard
JoCo sheriff appears to lack probable cause in election inquiry, Jonathan Shorman
Kelly, Schmidt diverge on pandemic response as they seek business community support, Jonathan Shorman
The latest from Kansas City
In Kansas City …
39 years after KC woman went missing, police identify her remains, Robert A. Cronkleton
Beloved Kansas City company introduced a four-day work week, Natalie Wallington
It’s possible to put bike lanes where KC cyclist was killed. Here’s what it would take, Anna Spoerre
Have a news tip? Send it along to ddesrochers@kcstar.com
Odds and ends
Hawley’s mailbox
It’s common for members of Congress to send letters to the various branches of government, demanding they take some sort of action that fits into whatever political message they’re currently harping on. It’s rarer that they get a response, particularly one where the agency they’re writing takes action.
But this week, the Office of the Inspector General for the Department of Defense said it would investigate allegations that 300 Afghan refugees were not properly vetted when they entered the United States.
Hawley sent a letter with Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson in August, requesting that the inspector general look into allegations by a whistle-blower at the Department of Defense who said that 324 people were allowed to enter the United States despite appearing on the Biometrically Enabled Watchlist, which includes people who’s “biometrics” have been collected and are considered potential threats to the country.
The office of the inspector general will launch the investigation in the first quarter of the next fiscal year.
Harry Truman statue
Former President Harry Truman will soon stand in the United States Capitol rotunda.
A statue of the former senator from Missouri and 33rd president will be unveiled in a ceremony on September 29, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Thursday.
Truman will serve as one of Missouri’s two statues in the U.S. Capitol, replacing one of former U.S. Sen. Thomas Hart Benton, who was an ancestor for the famous Kansas City painter of the same name whose work hangs a few blocks from the U.S. Capitol in the Smithsonian American Art Museum.
The Benton statue was originally sent to the Capitol by Missouri in 1899 and is located in statuary hall in the Capitol. Truman’s statue will be placed in the rotunda among former President Ronald Reagan (one of California’s statues) and former President Dwight Eisenhower (one of Kansas’ statues).
Debating debates
After there were no televised debates in the primary election for U.S. Senate in Missouri, the candidates are once again fighting over debates. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt wrote on Twitter earlier this week saying he had accepted a debate hosted by NexStar Media Group and claimed that his Democratic opponent Trudy Busch Valentine, had rejected the offer to debate.
Busch Valentine’s team said they had not turned down any debate invitations and were still considering which ones to accept.
Arguments over debates have erupted in senate races across the country. In Pennsylvania, one of the states that will help decide which party controls the Senate, Republican nominee Mehmet Oz has criticized Democratic nominee John Fetterman for not accepting debates. Fetterman had a stroke this year and his team has said he will accept one debate.
According to Politico, there are general election debates set in just two states with competitive U.S. Senate elections — Arizona and Colorado.
Royal condolences
The flags at the U.S. Capitol were lowered to half mast as Americans offered their condolences following the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The queen’s reign began when Harry Truman was president and lasted seven decades, making her the longest-serving monarch in the world at the time of her death.
The condolences ranged from former Presidents Donald Trump, Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter to the University of Maryland, which mentioned that the queen had attended one of the university’s football games when she visited in 1957 (it was apparently the only college football game she attended).
Missouri Rep. Vicky Hartzler pointed out that Elizabeth II met “Missouri’s own president,” Truman, when she first visited the U.S. as a princess in 1951.
Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall said her life of public service and her friendship with the United States will “echo long after her passing.” Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley offered his prayers and condolences to the Royal Family and people of the United Kingdom, as did Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran.
“As the longest-reigning monarch, she displayed loyalty to her citizens, steadfastness in the face of hardship and strengthened the alliance between the U.S. and U.K.,” Moran said.
Both Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made speeches on the floor of the U.S. Senate, offering their condolences.
“I dare say we will never see a leader quite like her for as long as we live,” Schumer said.
King Charles III ascended to the throne after the Elizabeth II’s death.
Happy Friday
Read this story from 2017 about what will happen when Queen Elizabeth II dies. I’m supposed to bring a dessert for a camping trip so I’ll probably make the classic — chocolate chip cookies. I watched that Elvis movie last weekend and this remains my favorite Elvis song.
Enjoy your weekend.
Looking for more?
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For more politics news, follow @Kacen, @KatieJ_Bernard, @drdesrochers and @jonshorman.
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This story was originally published September 8, 2022 at 5:11 PM.
