Missouri, Kansas GOP claims debt-busting Trump tax plan saves money. How? | Opinion

We try to be charitable in these parts. So let’s just say that Kansas and Missouri Republicans are being terribly optimistic about what President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill” is going to do for the country.

Emphasis on the “terrible” part.

The bill (a version of which passed the House on Thursday morning) would give big tax breaks to billionaires while slashing health care for poor Americans. It would explode the federal debt. It would make life harder for most of us while just a few will benefit.

But some of our local representatives are — hilariously — pitching the GOP bill as the foundation of a new era of federal fiscal responsibility.

No, really.

“I think we can get to a balanced budget in a few years if we are disciplined here,” Sen Eric Schmitt of Missouri told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo last week. “And there’s no reason in the world why we can’t do it. It’s irresponsible for us to continue to spend $2 trillion every year we don’t have.”

“Our One Big, Beautiful Bill CUTS the federal deficit by $1.5 trillion and LOWERS taxes for hardworking Kansans,” Kansas Rep. Tracey Mann posted, falsely, on X.

“This is the first step towards a balanced budget,” Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas added Wednesday on Newsmax.

That first step is a doozy, then.

The bill doesn’t actually cut the deficit. Of course it doesn’t. Tax cuts take money away from the federal government — they don’t put more money in. A balanced budget? It’s nowhere in sight.

America’s record debt gets bigger

Instead, The Wall Street Journal said this week, the bill would actually add roughly $3 trillion to the deficit by 2034.

That’s a lot! America is already on pace to soon have its biggest debt in its entire history, even bigger than what the entire economy produces in a year.

The GOP bill would get us to that awful point even faster.

Maybe it would be worth it, though, if the tax cuts supercharge the economy and raised living standards. That’s certainly what Rep. Ron Estes of Wichita is arguing.

“The House budget bill includes pro-growth economic policies that will increase U.S. GDP and, in turn, boost our tax revenue,” Estes wrote on X. “In fact, the (White House) Council of Economic Advisers predicts that extending the Trump tax cuts will result in 4.2% to 5.2% economic growth in the next four years and reduce the deficit by 1.1% of GDP.”

Sounds great. Thing is, almost nobody believes that Trump council’s prediction.

For example: The Tax Foundation, a center-right think tank, believes that in the long run, the bill would grow the American economy by … 0.6%.

That’s not nothing. But it’s pretty close to nothing.

‘Hardworking Americans’ come last

OK, so the bill is bad for the deficit and probably won’t produce the promised economic benefits. At least regular folks will come out ahead, right?

“Pro-growth tax policy will shift our economy toward one that serves them, not the wealthy and well-connected,” Missouri Rep. Jason Smith said last week.

“My colleagues on the other side of the aisle don’t like this bill because it puts hardworking Americans first,” Missouri Rep. Mark Alford said during the House debate that ended Thursday morning.

It really doesn’t.

Most folks would see lower tax bills, it’s true: The GOP-controlled House Ways and Means Committee says the average family would see a $1,300 annual cut. But the bill also puts a squeeze on Medicaid and SNAP food aid and other benefits, which means a lot of “hardworking Americans” are going to find it harder to get by.

“The top 10% of the income distribution receives about 65% of the total value of the legislation,” said analysts at Penn Wharton. Meanwhile, “lower-income households are worse off, with losses averaging $30,000 in lifetime value for the lower-income working-age population.”

In the long run, Penn Wharton said, “all future households are worse off” under the bill.

Which means the “big beautiful bill” is terrifically ugly.

The only real beneficiaries are billionaires and millionaires — the folks in that “top 10% of income distribution.” Everybody else is out of luck.

Maybe Kansas and Missouri Republicans are being overly optimistic about that. Or maybe they’re not telling you the truth.