As Senate race tightens, why is Josh Hawley digging in on abortion, IVF and more? | Opinion

Missouri is not a swing state, which means incumbent senator and famed sprinter Josh Hawley is the favorite to win reelection in November. However, in recent weeks, the race has been tightening. Polls show that Hawley’s Democratic challenger, former Marine Lucas Kunce, is now within four points of the senator, and Missouri’s abortion ballot measure is likely to give Kunce another boost as well. We’re talking about a state that Trump won by 15 points.

There’s no reason Hawley should even need to campaign, and yet, Kunce has his feet to the fire, especially as Hawley has lost out on several key endorsements and came under fire for a series of blunders. It’s worth asking why things are going so poorly for the sitting senator.

When Hawley first ran for Senate in 2018, he was a renegade: an early standard-bearer for the “new right” populist movement and the rare alleged “pro-labor” Republican. Those who followed in the same model include none other than current GOP vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance. In 2022, pundits everywhere were talking about how Vance, Hawley and a few others (Blake Masters, for example, whom I hope no one remembers) were reshaping the Republican Party. But today, Vance and Hawley really don’t sound all that similar. Perhaps it’s because Vance is a political chameleon who’s molded himself into whomever Donald Trump wants to see that day. But Hawley’s something equally toxic: He’s a politician who refuses to adjust to the will of his voters.

At every opportunity, Hawley has dug into all his terrible, unpopular positions, particularly on culture war issues. He continues to support a general return to the 1950s, best exemplified by his close association with Harrison Butker. After the Kansas City Chiefs kicker came under fire for a graduation speech in which he told women they would probably find the most meaning as mothers and wives, Hawley could have simply said nothing. Instead, he embraced Butker’s remarks and continued to campaign with him. Just a few days ago, Hawley stood next to Butker and smiled as the football player said it was “beautiful” for women to “step aside.”

Voted against protecting in vitro, contraception

That’s not the only reason Hawley is alienating women. While the rest of his party is pretending to “moderate” on abortion — Trump himself now claims (in the vaguest terms possible) that he doesn’t support a national ban, and Republicans everywhere have distanced themselves from extreme state decisions on reproductive rights — Hawley continues to dig in. He opposes Missouri Amendment 3, which would protect abortion access in the state, despite the ballot measure having massive public support. He’s also voted recently against bills to protect the right to in vitro fertilization and contraception nationally, both of which enjoy widespread public support.

There are numerous other issues on which Hawley has dug in, rather than taken his party’s off-ramp. He said at the Senate debate in September that he would not rush Israel to a ceasefire in Gaza, despite Trump himself claiming we need to stop the war in Israel. He’s hung onto his fake “populism” even as he was outed for using a private jet to campaign — which he’d criticized his opponent for in 2018. If he dropped the act, he’d probably drop some of the negative press coverage, too.

And some of his worst positions are the ones he proclaims most loudly. For instance, rather than deny association with the deeply unpopular Project 2025 (the project’s net approval rating is negative 53 points), as many others in his party — including Trump — have done, he once again dug in by describing himself as an advocate for “Christian nationalism.” This was not in an on-the-record flub, but rather stated proudly and directly during a recent speech he had prepared. It wouldn’t have been difficult for him not to describe himself as a Christian nationalist. He could have simply deleted that line from the speech. But he didn’t.

None of this answers the question of why. Why has Hawley failed to change course? Why hasn’t he moved with the rest of his party? There may appear to be something admirable about a man who stands his ground, although I would argue that it really depends on what ground he’s standing. I don’t think there’s much to admire about the man who stands his “I’m BFFs with the football player who thinks women shouldn’t work” ground.

But maybe Hawley is just being his authentic self. Maybe he’s overconfident about this race and doesn’t think he needs to make changes, which I believe (and hope) is a mistake. He’s young, so maybe it’s a long-term strategy: Maybe he thinks Americans will turn against women’s rights, for example, and he’ll one day be the only man left standing.

Or maybe – most likely – Hawley’s just not listening to his voters. It wouldn’t be the first time. In fact, Hawley’s entire term in the Senate has been marked by a lack of responsiveness to the people of Missouri, from the big swings — such as voting against upholding the results of the 2020 election (voters, it turns out, generally don’t like having their votes thrown out) — to the minor day-to-day issues, such as consistently failing to bring money back to Missouri.

Voters want a leader who stands for something, but they also want a leader who cares what they think. All Josh Hawley wants is to dig in.