If Missouri wants to save its public schools, private schools need coronavirus aid, too

My first job out of college was as a ninth- and 10th-grade teacher at a Catholic high school in Montgomery, Alabama. Whenever we were running short on funds (which was often), someone would say, “You know what? For one day, we should close our doors and send all of our kids back to the public schools they’re assigned to. When their classrooms got overwhelmed, they’d recognize the service we provide the community and maybe try to help us out.”

Well, COVID-19 might make that wish come true. As my colleague Robert Enlow has pointed out, the coronavirus and its associated economic downturn could have a serious impact on private school enrollment. If families cannot afford private school tuition, their kids will be heading back to public schools. Given the fiscal forces that will already be battering public schools because of decreased tax revenue, this could be a serious problem.

How many kids and how much money are we talking about? The school choice nonprofit EdChoice used federal data about state and local per-pupil funding, and estimated the marginal cost of each additional student entering the Missouri public school system at about $11,500. If just 10% of private school students return to public schools this fall, it would represent more than $133 million in new state and local costs. But during the Great Recession, hard-hit areas saw as much as a 40% decline in their private school enrollment — and that was over a period of several years. The coronavirus pandemic is hitting the economy faster and harder than anything we saw back then. Imagine 30% of Missouri private school students — that would be about 35,000 kids — returning to public school all at once later this year. The state would see just over $400 million in new expenses, spread among state and local governments.

Missouri would struggle to absorb a $400 million hit in the best of times, but in a post-virus recession? Good luck.

So what can we do to prevent this? First, we can make sure that private schools get access to federal funds that are going to schools as part of Congress’ coronavirus relief bill. Those dollars are supposed to be shared with private schools, but we have seen with many federal programs that private schools are often left out in the cold. We should keep a close eye on the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and our local districts to make sure that private schools are getting the money they deserve. Public schools may not see it yet, but it is in their best interest to keep private schools open.

Second, the Missouri legislature should advance private school choice programs. Not only do these programs save money in general, which will certainly come in handy, but they would also prevent public schools from seeing a massive influx of private school students, which would further affect schools’ bottom line. The sooner public school advocates realize that advancing such programs would actually help them, the better.

It’s hard to think about the future in the midst of a crisis, but we need to keep in mind that a few months from now, things could be worse. The old adage that the best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago but the second-best time is now holds true. We should have been doing more to support private schools and the families that attend them (or want to) — but the fact that we haven’t doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t now. It’s better late than never.

This story was originally published May 8, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "If Missouri wants to save its public schools, private schools need coronavirus aid, too."